Panic of the polls

In October 2016, we were notified Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump, someone the political establishment largely considers a joke. The New York Times gave Clinton had an 84% chance of winning as election night began And yet, in a stunning polling defeat, Trump won with 77 electoral votes. Of course, four years later, Joe Biden, who is leading the 2020 polls by an impressive margin, will go on to deliver the victory that Clinton never could. But moving to the present, the president’s situation is very different, with most polls pointing to Biden behind Trump, especially in swing states. This raises the question: Has Biden really lost the American public, or are the polls trying—and failing—to measure a shifting electorate?

According to Politico, many Democrats in Washington worry it’s the former problem. reported this week about the “widespread sense of fear” that “has taken hold at the highest levels” of the party. Meanwhile, there are people in Bidenworld, including Democratic strategists Simon Rosenberg, Who searched to allay existing concerns about Biden’s re-election chances, dispelling the notion that the campaign is taking place on “hope”. Needless to say, no one has a crystal ball. But it’s worth pointing out a few things to note in all this arm-twisting and waving.

First, it goes without saying that the polling industry doesn’t have nearly the kind of encyclopedic knowledge or access to people’s political habits and persuasions that tech companies do. For example, it still relies on outdated forms of outreach, including landline calls, cell phone calls, and text messages — all of which can lead to bias and sampling error .

And then there are the notes that are entirely specific to this cycle. One of them, like “Hidden Trump voters” of 2016, which is what I would call the hidden thing Are not-Trump voters 2024. That is, Nikki HaleyHer zombie campaign has still received more than 10% of the vote in most Republican primaries since their candidate suspended her campaign. About two months after she dropped out of school, Haley win 1 in 5 Republicans in Indiana, while Trump’s performance in many primaries was weaker than what was predicted in the polls. “In New Hampshire, surveys before the primary showed the former president beating his last remaining rival, Nikki Haley, by nearly 18 percentage points; he won by 11,” Financial Times reported. “In South Carolina, he was leading Haley by 28 points, but he won by 20 points. In Michigan, the polls said 57, but he won by ‘only’ 42.” All of this makes me wonder if the pollsters might be overestimating oranges. MAGA members’ commitment to actually showing up for their guy or not.

Another point worth noting is: time political analyst Nate Cohn recently explain, is that Biden was repeatedly ahead in 2020 voter polls, even as he lagged the former president in the number of registered voters overall. “The Biden hope argument that I mainly believe is that Biden appears to be doing better among likely voters,” tweeted Silver Nate, “and the voter/registered voter gap may be larger than usual in an election where most people feel apathetic.” If this is true, Trump needs to convince non-traditional voters to change their behavior and vote for him. That means the former president needs to prove that he will radically improve voters’ lives — or Biden will do the radical opposite — despite the fact that voters have already witnessed ​both the Biden and Trump administrations. It’s quite a heavy job. But that’s still what Trump maybe could be successful, given its ability to make many people believe nonsense.

While all of these warnings could affect Trump’s apparent poll lead, it doesn’t mean Bidenworld will sleep easy. Why? In part, the number of Trump voters seems to be growing: Lately vote indicates that 17% of Black voters would support Trump — nearly double that percentage in 2016. This would be a seismic racial realignment.

Last week Trump hosted a protest in the South Bronxwhere he gained a sizable (albeit obvious) audience not as big as he stated). Still, it suggests an opportunity for Trump among voters who have not traditionally favored Republicans. Why would members of a predominantly Latino community support the haves? immigration plan involving mass deportations and potentially detention camps? It’s hard to say for sure, but dynamics like this pose one big challenge for the Biden campaign.

Another thing that might send shivers down Bidenworld’s spine is that the former president seems to be holding on to Americans who weren’t involved in the news cycle in the first place. “Trump leads among those who do not follow political news” report NBC News. “Fifty-three percent support him and 27% support Biden.” Again, it’s hard to know exactly why that is, but if I were to hazard a guess, I’d place most of the blame on Big Tech, which has undermined local and open media. creating a political “news” environment full of mistakes. — and misinformation, where people like Trump can thrive.

We are now more than 150 days away from the 2024 election. None of us – including Nates – fully know what to expect in the cottage. Bidenworld could still change hearts and minds on both inflation and the war in the Middle East. Trump’s support could falter if he is convicted in Manhattan silent money case. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may, for whatever reason, suddenly drop out of school. There is always an element of the unknown in every election. However, as previous elections have shown, opinion polls do not show wisdom. They are more of a vague art than a perfect science.


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