After experiencing all the pandemic in China, Xi Jinping, the country’s leader, finally stepped outside his borders on Wednesday for the first time in more than two years, making a short visit. traveled to Central Asia to present himself as a global statesman and engage in the kind of diplomacy that video calls could not.
The trip gives Xi an opportunity to point out China’s growing geopolitical influence in the region despite the deterioration of Beijing’s relations with much of the West. At summits with the leaders of several Asian countries, he will likely seek to present China as a credible regional and global power – and as an alternative to American leadership.
Mr. Xi arrived in Kazakhstan on Wednesday to begin a three-day tour. His next stop will be Uzbekistan, where he will attend a summit of regional leaders and is expected to meet Russian President Putin. That meeting would give Putin, whose country has become increasingly isolated by the United States and Europe because of its invasion of Ukraine and whose forces have faced harsh battlefield defeat in recent days, a the boost needed by standing side by side with one of the world’s most powerful leaders.
Mr. Xi will be looking to use the trip to bolster confidence in his ability to stay in power in the weeks before a key meeting of the ruling Communist Party leadership, where he is expected to declare another term. 5 more years.
Across its official propaganda apparatus, the party is heavily promoting Xi’s trip at a time when the country faces serious challenges. China’s economy has slowed down considerably. Unemployment youth is at a record high. Rising inflation around the world has hurt demand for Chinese exports. The party is imposing widely – many exaggerate – Locking doors to try to contain the outbreak of Coviddetained an estimated tens of millions of people to their homes and forced some residents to severe food shortage.
The country’s strict and unique focus on avoiding and eliminating the coronavirus at all costs also explains Mr. Xi’s long absence from the global stage. Mr. Xi’s last overseas trip was to Myanmar in January 2020. Even when he ventured to the southern Chinese city of Hong Kong this July, he took little risks, demanding all All the officials, journalists and others who attended the event had to go through the coronavirus on a daily basis. tested and self-isolate before he arrives.
Xi’s conspicuous retreat is in stark contrast to his pre-pandemic schedule, when he spent the equivalent of more than a month abroad each year. In recent months, as more countries opened up, it made him more prominent among the leaders of powerful nations. It also limits his ability to directly influence China’s image abroad amid growing concern about Beijing’s human rights record, its attack on Taiwan and other countries. Other problems.
“The only reason why Xi Jinping hasn’t gone out in the past three years is because of the epidemic prevention and control policies,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at China’s Renmin University in Beijing. But staying at home “also brings some damage to China’s foreign policy,” he added.
“Now the leaders of the Chinese government should start to be cautious and resume face-to-face exchanges and overseas visits with leaders of other countries,” Shi said.
While Xi’s meeting with Putin will highlight the growing closeness of Beijing and Moscow, its context will be reminiscent of the many ways in which they compete. In Central Asia, China has worked to expand its footprint in the former Soviet republics that Russia considers within its sphere of influence.
In a pair of essays written before the trip for the media to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, Xi highlighted China’s historic ties with the two countries and described Beijing as a generous benefactor and a trusted power. trust in the area. He marks Chinese investments in pipelines, wind power, oil refining and auto manufacturing in Kazakhstan and China’s Covid vaccine production cooperation in Uzbekistan.
“Uzbekistan is welcome to board China’s development express train and share its development opportunities,” I wrote.
Mr. Xi certainly emphasized the potential for trade and investment with China. His first stop, Kazakhstan, was key to China’s vast international development and investment program called the Belt and Road Initiative, which he started during a visit. in 2013. The China-led program focusing on investments in bridges, railways, ports and energy to connect dozens of countries with China, is a signature project of Mr. Xi, with ambitions to establish global economic order.
But critics say the infrastructure and investment plans make the participating nations dependent on China. Many in Kazakhstan have such concerns, who fear that the country’s economic dependence on China gives Beijing too much leverage.
The country’s majority ethnic Kazakhs share a common language, culture, and in some cases family ties with the Kazakhs of Xinjiang, northwest China. Beijing has imposed an extensive crackdown in Xinjiang that has resulted in mass detentions of members of predominantly Muslim groups, including Kazakhs.
The crackdown has created a sticking point in relations between the two countries, but the Kazakh leadership has not publicly criticized China for it, and the country’s authorities have sanctioned activists seeking to lobby for those who are facing repression in China.
In Uzbekistan, Xi is expected to meet Putin during a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security-focused multilateral organization that includes China, Russia, India, Pakistan and four other countries. Central Asian country.
The topic on everyone’s mind, the war in Ukraine, is likely to come to the fore as leaders focus on regional trade. Russia, China and Mongolia have tentatively agreed to build a new gas pipeline, Mr. Putin said last weekand the leaders of the three countries will meet on the sidelines of the Uzbekistan summit.
Niva Yau, a senior research fellow at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, said the biggest item on the agenda would be building roads and pipelines to transport goods and fossil fuels in the region. .
“Nobody is really going to deal with the Ukraine war so openly, but everyone will say why the shipping potential is important,” Ms. Yau said.
The meeting between Putin and Xi will be the first face-to-face meeting since February, at the start of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, when they issued a lengthy statement of friendship “without limits”. ” among their countries. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began shortly after the end of the Olympics, putting Beijing in the dilemma of continuing to draw closer to Moscow even as it avoided publicly endorsing war or providing the kind of assistance it needed. material aid could lead to US sanctions.
The Chinese leadership is attracted to Russia because it can be a partner against Western influence led by the US. However, Central Asian countries are wary of Russia’s intentions and don’t expect China to realize their concerns, Yau said.
China and Russia are “trying to end Western global domination and that is in China’s interests,” Yau said. “The problem is that all over Eurasia, everyone understands that Russia’s goal is to revive the Soviet Union. I don’t think this is something that China understands or values.”
Amy Chang Chien contribution report.
