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WMO reports reduce likelihood of upcoming severe Atlantic hurricane season – Global issues

Conditions still point to an “above-normal” 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, according to NOAA’s mid-season annual update issued by the Centers for Climate Prediction, a division of the U.S. National Weather Service. Period, release.

NOAA forecasters have reduced the likelihood of an above-normal season – which could herald more destructive storms for the Caribbean and eastern US – from 65 percent in May, to 60% of the most recent estimates. However, the likelihood of “near-normal” operation has increased to 30%, from a previous estimate of only 10%.

However, The sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecast that the global incidence of tropical cyclones is of very high intensity Category 4 or 5, together with wind and precipitation peaks, is expected to gradually increase due to global warming caused by increased CO2 emissions.

Pending storm name

NOAA’s update to the advance forecast – including the entire upcoming six-month hurricane season – projects that there will be 14-20 named storms with winds of 39 mph / 63 kmh or more.

Of these, 6-10, can become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph/119 kmh or greater. Of these, three to five could become major storms with winds of 111 mph/179 kmh or greater.. NOAA has predicted these ranges with a 70% confidence level..

Hitherto, The season saw three named storms, but none in the Atlantic basin. On average, the hurricane season produces 14 named storms, 7 of which become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

In the North Atlantic and Northeastern Pacific basins, WMOThe Miami Area Specialized Meteorological Center (US National Hurricane Center) is responsible for forecasting tropical cyclones, including marine-related hazards.

Much of the area around the city of Gonaives was submerged in floodwaters and covered in mud after Tropical Storm Jeanne tore through Haiti.  (file)

UN photo / Sophia Paris

Much of the area around the city of Gonaives was submerged in floodwaters and covered in mud after Tropical Storm Jeanne tore through Haiti. (file)

Eye of the storm

There are several conditions that indicate an active hurricane season. Most notable are La Niña conditions, which are likely to persist for the rest of 2022. La Niña conditions, the periodic cooling of the ocean surface in the center and east of the Thai equator Binh Duong, will slightly increase storm activity, said a press release issued by the World Meteorological Organization.

Beyond La Niña continuing, weaker tropical Atlantic winds, active West African Monsoon and higher-than-normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures set the stage for higher-than-average hurricane activity .

Hurricane seasons in 2020 and 2021 have special activities and both years exhausted the list of prepared hurricane names from the WMO’s rotating list. WMO maintains list of namesto support clear communication about the dangers ahead and help save lives.

Every year, there are an average of 84 named tropical cyclones around the world.

43 people die every day

Over the past 50 years, they have caused an average of 43 deaths and $78 million in damage every day, according to WMO statistics from 1970-2019.

However, based on the data, mortality fees have dropped significantly. This development is due to improvements in disaster risk prediction, warning and mitigation, coordinated by WMO Tropical Storm Program.

In view of the growing dangers, WMO is working to ensure universal access to early warnings and is looking to enhance impact-based forecasting.

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