AFPLosing a deputy just two years after being elected on a ticket can be considered a big blow for a president, but not this time in Kenya.
As soon as Rigathi Gachagua was seen to be sabotaging William Ruto, he quickly moved to remove his second-in-command.
He has seen first-hand how a rift between Kenya’s two leaders can lead to government dysfunction after he fell out with former boss Uhuru Kenyatta.
Unprecedented political changes in Kenya, broadcast on live television, may appear orderly and seamless to outside observers.
The impeachment process has been widely watched as the two chambers of Congress, the courts and ultimately the executive branch appear to have carried out their roles according to a carefully regulated legal process.
But for many Kenyans, it has been a rollercoaster that has attracted strong opinions from across the country.
There was an initial feeling of betrayal and disappointment, especially from Gachagua’s hometown in Mount Kenya, but by Friday morning this had been replaced by a feeling of acceptance as the man chosen to replace him, Kithure Kindiki, also from the same area.
Mount Kenya played a key role in Ruto defeating former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the hard-fought 2022 presidential election.
Odinga is running against a powerful former Attorney General, Martha Karua, who is from the region and is backed by Kenyatta, the outgoing president, also from there.
But in the event, Ruto, with Gachagua on board, won a landslide victory in that part of the country.
For context, Kenyan politics is largely driven by regional – some might say ethnic – blocs, and Mount Kenya accounts for about a quarter of the country’s votes.
It is no surprise that three of the five presidents since independence – Jomo Kenyatta, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta – have come from this region. This is why the two front-runners in the last presidential election – Ruto and Odinga – chose their running mate from there, as they were both from other parts of the country.
Thus, disrupting the region could be political suicide for a president in his first term.
But Gachagua’s efforts to strengthen his position within the bloc actually proved his failure.
He was accused by parliament, among other things, of promoting divisive ethnic politics when he was supposed to unify the country.
He coined the phrase “usiguze mlima,” which means “don’t touch the mountain,” positioning himself as the fierce protector of the Mount Kenya region and the gateway to it.
Clips played during the impeachment proceedings showed him suggesting that the government would prioritize areas that voted for the winning ticket, even though Ruto had made similar statements.
Lawmakers from other regions have strongly condemned such views.
Ruto remained silent as his deputy was impeached, despite pleas for the president to intervene, even including asking for forgiveness “if he [Gachagua] did something wrong” to him.
There is a very recent precedent for the chaos that ensues when a president and his deputy fall out.
During Kenyatta’s second term, Ruto, then vice president, complained of marginalization and repression.
The victim card was beloved by many, including in the then-president’s own political backyard.
But he needs more than sympathy to win the 2022 presidential election – he must choose his running mate from Mount Kenya.
While many expected the president to choose his long-time ally, law professor Kithure Kindiki, Ruto made a surprise move by choosing then one-term parliamentary candidate Rigathi Gachagua.
Kindiki was already popular in Kenya, having served as deputy speaker before being sacked in a purge instigated by Kenyatta against Ruto’s allies.
They say MPs in Ruto’s party voted overwhelmingly for Kindiki three times when he sought their participation in choosing his running mate. Gachagua came second but was ultimately Ruto’s choice.
So the replacement is not surprising.
The fact that he came from “the mountains,” albeit one of the smaller ethnic groups, helped assuage feelings of anger and betrayal.
Many locals speaking on television called for accepting the president’s choice to avoid dividing the region.
This is all in a nutshell – the next elections are only three years away.
But it will certainly still reduce the president’s support in Mount Kenya.
AFPThe success of the process also depends heavily on Ruto’s new alliance with his bitter nemesis in the last election, Odinga, whom MPs and senators voted overwhelmingly to oust. Gachagua from office.
Congress also chose a close associate of Odinga, senior counsel James Orengo, to head its legal team in the impeachment trial.
There is no doubt that there is a synergy of benefits here. But it could be a poisoned chalice for Ruto.
How long the promiscuity lasts is unpredictable. But that is characteristic of Kenya’s ever-changing political landscape.
Ruto has now appointed four senior members of Odinga’s party to the cabinet and is backing him for the influential position of chairman of the next African Union commission.
The two have a long political history with each other as allies or opponents.
In the 2002 presidential election, Ruto supported Kenyatta while Odinga supported Kibaki, who won.
Five years later, loyalties changed as Ruto backed Odinga and Kenyatta rallied behind incumbent Kibaki, in a hotly contested 2007 election that led to nationwide violence.
Ruto and Kenyatta were later indicted by the International Criminal Court for their alleged roles in the fighting while they supported opposition sides.
But in the next two elections in 2013 and 2017, they won a joint ticket and defeated Odinga.
The cases against them at the ICC were eventually dismissed for lack of evidence.
Any coalition is possible in Kenyan politics, no matter how difficult they may seem to outsiders.
All national leaders try to do is keep their regional or ethnic blocs intact to use as bargaining chips when looking for partnerships and a formula to win in national election.
Both Ruto and Odinga have long been working towards that goal, having entered politics at a young age.
Both have loyal support bases – as their recent alliance shows Odinga’s supporters are completely behind a politician they last opposed just two years ago.
Gachagua hoped to achieve the same stature, but his ambition has now consumed him.
He is challenging his impeachment in court and if successful, it could give him a political lifeline. If not, the law will ban him from running for office for at least 10 years.
This kind of politics is a long game. At the age of 59, Gachagua is a late joiner and his future is unclear.
He could be condemned to political oblivion or he could still return to the arena – as Ruto’s opponent or even his ally.
Despite what appeared to be a bitter divorce, with the president quickly leaving, no one in Kenya was surprised to see him shaking hands and smiling on national television with his distant former vice president. strange.
Kenya’s political landscape is an active seismic zone – tectonic plates are constantly shifting and anything is possible.
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