CAPE TOWN, South Africa, March 25 (IPS) – The writer is a Research Fellow at the UK-based Institute for Development Studies and a member of its Center for Food Equity. and the welfare of the Ukrainian people must be our immediate concern. However, given the dominant roles of Russia and Ukraine in the global food, fuel and fertilizer markets, there are also major implications for people around the world. This is especially true for food supplies and costs. Here are three ways the invasion of Ukraine led to potential dangers to other countries’ food security.
1. Declining global food supply
Ukraine is known as bread basket Europe, Russia and Ukraine have all become major food exporters in recent years. In 2020, these two countries account for a third of the world’s wheat trade and a quarter of the world’s barley purchase. Ukraine alone exports 15% of the world’s corn and half of the traded sunflower oil Global.
Two possible consequences of the ongoing crisis are a decrease in exports from Ukraine due to production and trade disruptions, and a decrease in exports from Russia, due to economic sanctions aimed at harming the Russian economy. Commercial exports from the main ports in Ukraine such as Odessa was suspended. So there will be less wheat, corn, barley and cooking oil on the world market in the near future.
50 countries depend on Russia and Ukraine with 30% or more wheat. Many of these are low-income countries with food deficits in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia – such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Nigeria, Sudan and Yemen, now on the brink of famine.
2. Food prices increase
A reduced food supply will cause food prices to rise. This plus the fact that food prices were already rising before Russia invaded Ukraine. In February, FAO Food Price Index hits new all-time highpartly due to the post-recovery of global demandCOVID-19and partly reflect impending expectations interruption to wheat and corn exports from Russia and Ukraine.
Rising oil, gas and gasoline price will increase food price inflation further, as food and fuel price movements tend to track closely. Because poor households spend a higher percentage of their income on food, higher food prices will hit low-income consumers and low-income countries hardest. Bread prices are increasing in countries around the world. In IraqPoor communities held protests over food prices in early March after prices for flour and cooking oil skyrocketed in local markets, which officials attributed to the conflict in Ukraine.
3. Food production declines in low-income countries
Russia is the largest global exporter of fertilizers and fertilizer ingredients such as potash, ammonia, urea and natural gas for the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers. On February 2, Russia ban export their fertilizers, ostensibly to protect their farmers. Belarus is also a major exporter of potassium fertilizer. On March 2, the European Union sanctioned Belarus for supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These sanctions include a ban all potash imports from Belarus.
Dozens of countries rely heavily on imports of nitrogen and potassium fertilizers from Russia and Belarus. Many of these are low-income food deficit countries in West and Central Africa. But reduced fertilizer supply and higher fertilizer prices will also negatively affect middle- and high-income countries that import large amounts of fertilizer such as Brazil, India, the United States and most of the Western world. Europe. Fertilizer prices in the United States have increased 10 percent. As a result, food production could be affected in many countries around the world.
How bad will it get?
How badly global food security will be affected depends on a number of things that are still unknown at this point. For now, we’re left with a few short- and long-term questions – many that governments and global leaders should consider as part of their security crisis preparedness and response. Food.
First, how bad will the war be, and how long will it last? How badly will Ukraine’s exports be disrupted? Will sanctions be imposed on Ukrainian exports if Russia finally comes to power over Ukraine, and when will sanctions on Russia be lifted?
Second, how high will food and energy prices go? How long will prices remain high? At what new baseline will they stabilize after the conflict?
Third, how resilient are global and national food systems? A resilient food system that is able to sustainably provide sufficient, appropriate, safe and accessible food for everyone over time, even in the face of shocks and stress. Can households and countries afford higher food and energy prices? How quickly can households and countries diversify away from Ukraine and Russia in terms of food, energy and fertilizers?
Finally, what actions will governments and international agencies take to mitigate impacts? Governments are currently trying to reduce their dependence on imports from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. What Social Protection What measures will the government put in place for affected farmers and consumers? Are countries moving toward food self-sufficiency and reducing dependence on fossil fuels and chemical fertilizers? This can be a positive side effect.
We do not yet know the answers to these and related questions. But one thing is for sure: the sad thing is it will get worse for Ukraine and the world before it gets better.
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© Inter Press Service (2022) – All rights reservedOrigin: Inter Press Service
