Why Liz Cheney is likely on her way to a big failure

We’ll start our election politics meeting this week with another Republican who voted to impeach Trump and the frontrunner of the anti-Trump Republican party in Congress: Representative Wyoming Liz Cheney.

I’m going to cut the chase and say it will take a little miracle for Cheney for her to win Tuesday’s Republican primaries for the Wyoming Single House seat. Statistically unpredictable things happen, but Cheney has both polling and history going against her.

The truth is that Cheney hasn’t been re-elected since she voted to impeach Trump in early 2021. Trump is dominant character in GOP and voting to impeach Trump has become a sin in the minds of voters that many have not forgiven.
For Cheney specifically, you can see this in Wyoming voters’ CES polls implemented in late 2020 and then late 2021. Cheney’s disapproval rate in this deeply Republican state jumped from 26% before the impeachment vote to 72% after.
Cheney’s high unpopularity led to a large number of major challengers. The one who emerged from the swarm and get Trump’s approvalt, attorney and former Republican national commissioner Harriet Hageman, looked set to be a favorite on Tuesday.
Based on my reading of all the data out there, Hageman will most likely win somewhere 20 points north. The betting market put Hageman in over 95% favorites to be Wyoming’s Next House member.
You can also see the motivation behind Hageman of Wyoming in other data points. Although Cheney has sprung up Over $9 million out of state compared to Hageman’s over $1 million, Hageman more than doubled Cheney’s in-state fundraising (nearly $800,000 to over $300,000).

It could be argued that Cheney might have had a better chance if she hadn’t repeatedly challenged Trump. After all, she’s vice chair of the January 6 House selection committee. However, I’m not sure, what matters is what Cheney did after the vote to impeach Trump.

Had 10 Republicans in the House of Representatives who voted to impeach Trump. Four announced retirement before facing the voters again. Three were defeated in the primaries and two survived the general election.

Looking at the two who made it to the general election (California Representative David Valadao and Washington Representative Dan Newhouse) did not provide much encouragement for Cheney. Both get about 25% of the vote and advance to the general election in primaries, where all candidates, regardless of party, run on the same ballot as the two with the vote. The highest vote goes to November – which means there are a lot of non-Republicans voting.

Only one candidate will advance to the Cheney primary, and 25% of the vote is likely not enough to win.

And unlike California and Washington, Wyoming is partisan. You must choose a Republican ballot to vote in the primaries. Cheney tried to encourage non-Republicans to pick up that ballot, but more than two-thirds of it Registered voters of Wyoming is a Republican. The effort is almost certainly futile.
In fact, about two-thirds of Republicans nationwide have said that the party should not or should not accept Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, according to the report. Pew Research Center.

Unless something dramatic happens in the next few days, that number, more than anything else, will tell the story of why Cheney’s days in Congress are numbered.

Democratic change in special elections

You may have noticed that I mixed poll data and real world data in our last piece. That’s because I’m always looking for examples of what we’re seeing in a vote that takes place when voters are casting their ballots.

When it comes to whether Democrats are gaining momentum nationally, the recent special elections seem to be confirming what the vote is showing. Both suggest that the Democrats are in better shape than they have ever been.

Last week, Republican Brad Finstad defeated Democrat Jeff Ettinger in the Minnesota 1st District House election. However, his victory was by a only 4 points. Trump had won in the district 10 points. In other words, this is a 6-point overshoot for Democrats over the 2020 baseline.
Interestingly, this is the second special election since late June where Democrats have encouraging news. The Democratic Candidate Outperforms 2020 baseline equals 6 points in Nebraska 1st District Special Election on June 28.

What makes these elections so unusual is that Democrats have generally underperformed against the 2020 baseline in these congressional special elections. Instead of Democrats doing 6 points better than the 2020 baseline, as they did in the last two special elections, they have done about 6 points worse on average in the previous special elections. there.

It would be easy to dismiss these data points as outliers, but Democrats get a sudden surge in support lines with polling data and facts.

Democrats watched National General Assembly ballot 3 points average a few months ago. That ballot test is now bound.
This came when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, poll shows is an unpopular decision. We saw it in Kansas, where voters in that bold red state overwhelming decision to maintain the right to abortion.

Also, the unpopular Trump has dominated the headlines because of the January 6 House selection committee hearings and now the Mar-a-Lago raid.

Whether Democrats can maintain this momentum in the coming weeks and months is unknown at this point. However, we do have a few tests this month, with Alaska’s only House district having a special election on Tuesday and two congressional districts in New York holding a one-week special election. since Tuesday.

For your brief encounters: WNBA knockout starts this week

It may be hard to believe, but WNBA started 25 years ago. This week, the regular season of the women’s professional basketball league ends when playoffs begin.
Ranking for the WNBA Qualifiers reach their highest level since 2017 last year with an average of more than 500,000 fans following. We’ll see if that can top this season.
Like with their male counterparts, the highest rated professional final game was actually eliminated by the collegiate final game. About 5 million people follow to see NCAA women’s basketball finals earlier this year.

Remaining data

Facebook is no longer interesting: Only 32% of U.S. teens say they’ve used Facebook, according to a New research by Pew. Between 2014 and 2015, 71% said they did. Websites and apps used by teens over 50% are YouTube (95%), TikTok (67%), Instagram (62%) and Snapchat (59%).
Americans don’t like e-cigarettes: A new one poll in Gallup found that 61% of Americans want e-cigarette laws and regulations to be stricter, compared with 7% who said they were less stringent and 30% believed they should be kept as they are. The majority of Democrats, independents and Republicans think they should be stricter.
More than worldwide hunger: Gallup show project that about 10% of people are malnourished by 2021. If that forecast comes true, this would be the highest rate of malnutrition worldwide in more than a decade.

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