We’ll start our election politics meeting this week with another Republican who voted to impeach Trump and the frontrunner of the anti-Trump Republican party in Congress: Representative Wyoming Liz Cheney.
I’m going to cut the chase and say it will take a little miracle for Cheney for her to win Tuesday’s Republican primaries for the Wyoming Single House seat. Statistically unpredictable things happen, but Cheney has both polling and history going against her.
It could be argued that Cheney might have had a better chance if she hadn’t repeatedly challenged Trump. After all, she’s vice chair of the January 6 House selection committee. However, I’m not sure, what matters is what Cheney did after the vote to impeach Trump.
Looking at the two who made it to the general election (California Representative David Valadao and Washington Representative Dan Newhouse) did not provide much encouragement for Cheney. Both get about 25% of the vote and advance to the general election in primaries, where all candidates, regardless of party, run on the same ballot as the two with the vote. The highest vote goes to November – which means there are a lot of non-Republicans voting.
Only one candidate will advance to the Cheney primary, and 25% of the vote is likely not enough to win.
Unless something dramatic happens in the next few days, that number, more than anything else, will tell the story of why Cheney’s days in Congress are numbered.
Democratic change in special elections
You may have noticed that I mixed poll data and real world data in our last piece. That’s because I’m always looking for examples of what we’re seeing in a vote that takes place when voters are casting their ballots.
When it comes to whether Democrats are gaining momentum nationally, the recent special elections seem to be confirming what the vote is showing. Both suggest that the Democrats are in better shape than they have ever been.
What makes these elections so unusual is that Democrats have generally underperformed against the 2020 baseline in these congressional special elections. Instead of Democrats doing 6 points better than the 2020 baseline, as they did in the last two special elections, they have done about 6 points worse on average in the previous special elections. there.
It would be easy to dismiss these data points as outliers, but Democrats get a sudden surge in support lines with polling data and facts.
Also, the unpopular Trump has dominated the headlines because of the January 6 House selection committee hearings and now the Mar-a-Lago raid.
Whether Democrats can maintain this momentum in the coming weeks and months is unknown at this point. However, we do have a few tests this month, with Alaska’s only House district having a special election on Tuesday and two congressional districts in New York holding a one-week special election. since Tuesday.