Why electric cars are not a silver bullet
On June 8, 2022, the European Parliament voted to ban the sale of new internal combustion engine cars in Europe at 2035. The measure is part of Europe’s targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 55% by 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2050.
With this decision, European policies are promoting electric vehicles (EVs) as a solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. Today, the sale of electric vehicles is speed up, which accounts for almost 10% of private car sales in Europe. The current evolution of the auto market and the urgency of the climate crisis seem to fit the 2035 deadline.
While this rapid change feels inevitable, in the end it is too simple a change compared to such complex planetary problems. We must be aware not only environmental consequences but also economic and social problems.
Car pollution, but not just from emissions
From an environmental point of view, many studies have compared the GHG emissions of internal combustion cars with their electrical equivalents. Emissions during the use of electric cars are directly dependent on the emission level of the electric mixture used to charge the vehicle.
In the case of France, most of its electricity comes from low-carbon sources due to the country’s substantial use of nuclear power, which is not the case in all European countries. However, building electric vehicles, and especially making their batteries, emits high amounts of greenhouse gases, and the environmental benefits can only be offset if the vehicles run well enough. This undermines the argument for limiting use, which is a key lever for climate mitigation.
By only considering emissions within national borders, the carbon calculation methods are inconsistent with solutions that lead to pollution emitted in other countries. According to these techniques, VE appears to be effective in reducing national carbon emissions. Therefore, the desire to adopt them in France is understandable, but their virtues do not extend globally.
In addition to climate challenges, a ban on the sale of internal combustion vehicles by 2035 must address air quality in most major cities around the world, with impact on the local economy and public health.
The transportation sector is a major source of this pollution and VE is an alternative to help reduce this emissions—this reduction is however mitigated by the release of particles associated with tire wear, cracks and lines, which still tall.
By enforcing low-emission zones, many European cities are forcing owners of the most polluting cars to buy newer cars, or even tramemit fewer local contaminants.
Loss of oil-related taxes and electric vehicle subsidies
The all-electric transition of vehicle fleets by 2035 will necessarily revolutionize the entire road infrastructure. economic system. With the reduction in fossil fuel consumption, revenue from France’s domestic consumption tax on energy products (TICPE) will also decrease.
This tax generates 33.3 billion euros in 2019 and is central to both national and local government budgets. Replacing TICPE with an electricity tax could offset some of the tax loss but would affect all households, including those who travel less by car.
The subsidy system in place (bonus and conversion bonuses) has strongly contributed to current levels of EV usage but will become increasingly expensive. In 2020, cost 700 million euros, with a 20% market share, including hybrids. In comparison, the 2018 “bicycle and active transport” plan is allocated 350 million euros over seven years for bicycle infrastructure.
Tax incentives and subsidies for electric vehicles are now more beneficial for users in urban areas, where the technology is adopted more quickly thanks to favorable conditions. Rural and suburbanurban areas there are more challenges in this race towards all-electric conversion, as the people who live there have no choice but to use cars.
Stressful markets and very uncertain costs
As a result, the government will have to make a substantial contribution to support businesses and individuals in this transition, and it remains to be seen what political choices will be made to reallocate this cost. for taxpayers. Despite the installation of new generators, the increase in demand will significantly increase French household electricity billespecially if the residential area also uses electricity for heating.
On a global scale, lithium and many other metals have become a strategic resource for electric mobility. However, high demand and geographical imbalances of deposits and mining create tensions that will weaken supply and drive up raw material prices.
As a result, Europe’s electrification will depend on imports of these raw materials, raising doubts about its ability to supply electric vehicles to the entire European and global market at reasonable prices. physical.
A quick fix for the climate, but far from an ecological solution
The all-electric transition of fleets of vehicles is a protracted race based on an innovation that doesn’t question the way our society works. If EVs are part of a carbon-neutral strategy by 2050, they will not be enough by themselves and will continue to perpetuate an unstable system that depends on high levels of construction and man-made land as well as high levels of land use. abundant resource and energy consumption.
The urgency associated with climate change, with ambitious targets for 2030 and 2050, makes solutions feasible and beneficial in the short term, such as electric vehicles, but these solutions will no longer be viable by 2100, especially due to lack of natural resources beyond 2050. By over-promoting its ecological benefits, electric vehicles thwart potential action to change our car-centric system. Promoting limited use is the safest and most natural solution, and offers many environmental and social benefits.
Transport systems, spatial planning and lifestyles are caught up in a decades-old inertia of focus on speed and consumption. Despite the urgent need to end this pattern of “ecological destruction”, reflecting on the future of territories currently based on cars, between urban centers and countrysideare wanting.
The end of internal combustion engine cars by 2035 does not mean systematically replacing them with electric cars, but rather a profound question of the automobile’s place in everyday life. we.
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