Why does a country of 1.45 billion people want more children?

Last year, India overtook China to become the world’s most populous country, according to United Nations estimates.

With nearly 1.45 billion people today, you might think the country would stay quiet about having more children. But guess what? The conversation suddenly started.

Leaders of two southern states – Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu – have recently advocated for more children.

Andhra Pradesh is considering introducing incentives, citing low birth rate and aging population. State also Abolish the “two-child policy” for local body elections, and report thinks neighboring Telangana may soon do the same. Neighboring Tamil Nadu is also doing it similar, more exaggerated noises.

India’s birth rate has dropped dramatically – from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to the current level of 2.

Fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level of two children per woman in 17 of 29 states and territories. (Replacement level is the level at which new births are sufficient to maintain a stable population.)

Five southern Indian states are leading India’s demographic transition, achieving replacement fertility levels that far exceed those of other states. Kerala achieved this milestone in 1988, Tamil Nadu in 1993 and the rest in the mid-2000s.

Today, five southern states have a combined fertility rate below 1.6, with Karnataka at 1.6 and Tamil Nadu at 1.4. In other words, the birth rate in these states is equal to or lower than many European countries.

But these states are concerned that India’s changing demographics with varying population ratios across states will significantly impact electoral representation and state-wise allocation of seats. in parliament and federal revenue.

Srinivas Goli, professor of demography at the International Institute of Population Sciences, told the BBC: “They fear being punished for their effective population control policies, even though they are economically active countries better and contribute significantly to federal revenue.”

Southern states are also grappling with another major concern as India prepares for its first attack. delimitation number of seats elected in 2026 – the first time since 1976.

The move would redraw electoral boundaries to reflect population shifts, potentially reducing the number of congressional seats for economically prosperous Southern states. Because federal revenue is allocated based on states’ populations, many fear this could deepen their financial struggles and limit policymaking freedom.

Demographers KS James and Shubhra Kriti project that populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar could gain more seats thanks to demarcation, while southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh could face losses, displacing further change of political representation.

Many people, including the Prime Minister Narendra Modihas hinted that changes to financial stakes and the allocation of seats in parliament will not be passed in a hurry.

“As a demographer, I don’t think states should be too concerned about these issues,” Mr. Goli said. They can be resolved through constructive negotiations between federal and state governments.” “My concerns lie elsewhere.”

According to demographers, the main challenge is India’s rapid aging due to a falling birth rate. While countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years respectively to double their aging population from 7% to 14%, Mr. Goli said, India is expected to reach this milestone just after 28 years.

This rapid aging is tied to India’s unique success in reducing fertility. In most countries, improved living standards, education, and urbanization reduce natural fertility as child survival improves.

But in India, birth rates are falling rapidly despite modest socio-economic progress, thanks to family welfare programs that actively encourage small families through targets, incentives and disincentives. encourage.

Unintended consequences? Take Andhra Pradesh as an example. Mr. Goli said the country’s birth rate is 1.5, on par with Sweden, but per capita income is 28 times lower. With Debt piled up and limited resources, can countries like this support higher pensions or social security for rapidly aging populations?

Consider this. According to the latest report of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), more than 40% of Indian seniors (over 60 years old) belong to the poorest group – 20% of the population has the lowest level of wealth in terms of asset distribution. . India Aging Report.

In other words, Mr. Goli said, “India is getting old before it gets rich.”

Fewer children also mean a growing elderly dependency ratio, leaving fewer caregivers amid an expanding elderly population. Demographers warn that India’s health care system, community centers and nursing homes are unprepared for this change.

Urbanization, migration and changing labor markets are further eroding traditional family support – India’s strength – leaving more and more elderly people behind.

While migration from more populous states to less populous states may reduce the gap in working age, it also raises concerns about anti-migration. “Strong investments in prevention, palliative care and social infrastructure are essential to care for the elderly,” Mr. Goli said.

As if the concerns of the southern states were not enough, earlier this month the head of the Hindu nationalist organization Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (National Volunteer Organisation), the ideological mainstay of Mr Modi’s BJP – has urged couples to have at least three children to ensure safety. India’s future. “According to population science, when the growth rate falls below 2.1, society will self-destruct,” Mohan Bhagwat said at a recent meeting. No one can destroy it.” meeting.

Demographers say that while Mr. Bhagwat’s concerns may have some basis, they are not entirely accurate. Tim Dyson, a demographer at the London School of Economics, told the BBC that after a decade or two, continuing “very low fertility levels will lead to rapid population decline”.

A birth rate of 1.8 children per woman results in a slow and controllable population decline. But a rate of 1.6 or lower could cause “rapid and unmanageable population decline”.

“Less numbers of people will enter their prime reproductive and working ages, and this will be socially, politically and economically disastrous,” Mr. Dyson said. “This is a demographic and economic process. extremely difficult to reverse”.

This has happened in several countries.

In May, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol announced the country’s record low birth rate was “national emergency” and announced plans to establish a specialized government ministry. Greece The birth rate has plummeted to 1.3half that of 1950, sparking warnings from Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of an “existential” population threat.

But demographers say urging people to have more children is futile. “Considering societal changes, including significant reductions in gender disparity as women’s lives become increasingly similar to men’s, this trend is unlikely to reverse,” Mr Dyson said. .

For Indian states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, grappling with a shrinking workforce, the key question is: who will step in to fill the gap? Developed countries, unable to reverse fertility decline, are focusing on healthy and active aging – extending the working life by five to seven years and raising productivity in the older population group.

Demographers say India will need to meaningfully extend the retirement age and that policies must prioritize increasing the healthy age through better health screening and stronger social security to Ensuring an active and productive aging population – a potential “silver dividend”.

India must also take better advantage of its demographic advantage – economic growth is achieved when a country has a large working-age population. Mr. Goli believes there is still an opportunity until 2047 to boost the economy, create jobs for the working-age population and allocate resources to an aging population. “We only get 15-20% dividends – we can do much better,” he said.

The title of this section has been updated to better reflect the story.