By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Saturday’s feature race in Saratoga is the $600,000 Alabama S. (G1), one of the most important events in the country for three-year-olds.
The historic race spanned more than a quarter of a mile on dirt track, an uncommon distance for sophomores to cross. But the testing gap doesn’t detract from the quality of the field. By contrast, Alabama 2022 has attracted a popular field with four bet winners classified out of seven entries.
Leading is #4 Nest, a curvaceous hybrid daughter of Curlin in addition to AP Indy’s mare Marion Ravenwood. Bay filly is a blood sibling to 1/4 mile winner Santa Anita H. (G1), and Nest showed off its prolific stamina by finishing second to the men in the Belmont S. (G1) ).
Nest followed up on this effort with a stunning 1/8-mile win over American Oaks Coaches Club (G1) in Saratoga. Making good use of her fitness, Nest hit and then set solid fractions on a slow and grueling track, exhausting her pursuers before retreating to win the 12 1/ 4 lengths.
Nest used similar tactics in Alabama. In a race that isn’t too crammed with speed ponies, Nest should find a way to set or pick up the tempo early. If runner Irad Ortiz kept up the honest pace of the American Oaks Coaching Club, it would be hard for anyone to keep up with Nest’s relentless strides.
The obvious choice for second place is #7 Secret Vow, the only one to beat Nest this year. Secret Oath’s conquest is over 1 1/8 miles in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), in which she launched an outside rally to beat Nest in two lengths.
But Nest endured a delicately troubling ride in Kentucky Oaks, waiting for traffic at a key point around a far turn while Secret Oath swept through unimpeded. Tables were played out in the American Oaks Coaching Club, where Secret Oath – usually a distance runner – tried to hit speed while racing wide. She’s no match for Nest in homestays, but with her merits, Secret Oath managed to hold on to second place despite the challenging ride.
The big question for Secret Oath is whether she wants to run the 1 1/4 mile. Her secret weapon is a powerful burst of acceleration at long turns, which she puts to good use on shorter trips (1 1/16 mile and 1 1/8 mile), but not necessarily. must conform to the 1 1 / 4 Mile Journey test. Nest lost points from the eighth mile to the finish line when three of her four started running 1 1/8 mile or so, so part of me wondered if Secret Oath was vulnerable when Run her longest race to date or not.
So who can steal the show for second place? I don’t think we can eliminate #3 Gerrymander from the mixture. She’s the daughter of Into Mischief (daughter of Kentucky Derby Authentic and Mandaloun winners) from Ruby Lips (Lone Rock long land marathon runner’s dam), so Gerrymander should be able to handle 1 1/ 4 miles.
Gerrymander has tactical speed and even took the lead in the mile-long Tempted S. tournament at Belmont Park last fall, which featured a then inexperienced Nest among its defeated opponents. Teacher. Even better, Gerrymander was the 1/16 km superior speed track winner Mother Goose S. (G2) two months ago in Belmont, beating the next Monmouth Oaks (G3) winner Shahama .
According to Brisnet stats, Gerrymander races for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Joel Rosario and Chad Brown, who have rallied 4v8 (50%) in the past two months. Gerrymander broke her maiden break at Saratoga last summer and returned to Spa with just two under-belt runs this season, so it’s not too hard to think she can put her best foot forward in Alabama . Defeating Nest will be difficult, but an exact ending is within reach.
Gazelle S. (G3) winner and Coaching Club American Oaks third place finisher #5 Nostalgia is a decent choice for super-perfect rounding, but if you want to put long range into the mix, #1 Skratch Kat Could be a value. Arrogate’s progressive daughter rallied to win an optional claimant’s $80,000 grant in the 1/16-mile race at Churchill Downs last month and qualified to move forward while closing the gap with hot coach Philip Bauer, who went 3 to 6 (50%) at Saratoga this meeting.
Option
First: Team
Monday: Gerrymander
Tuesday: Secret Vow
Wednesday: Skratch Kat
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in Alabama?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, amputee, and horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers the Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
