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Where is Hurricane Milton headed?


Helen Willetts with the latest forecast as Milton heads to Florida

After ripping through the Florida peninsula, Hurricane Milton weakened to a category one hurricane and its center moved out of the state into the Atlantic Ocean.

But forecasters warned that stormy winds and rain were continuing in eastern parts of the state.

The storm comes just two weeks after Hurricane Helene caused extensive damage across the southeastern United States.

When did Hurricane Milton hit Florida?

Milton made landfall as a category three hurricane in Siesta Key, Florida – a coastal community about 50 miles (80 km) south of Tampa – at around 8:30 p.m. EST on Wednesday (3:30 p.m. BST on Thursday), according to the National Hurricane Center. (NHC).

Nearly 3.4 million homes and businesses were without power as of Thursday morning, dozens of homes were destroyed and at least four deaths were reported.

The map shows central Florida bisected by a red line representing the path of Hurricane Milton – and where it made landfall near Siesta Key. Labels showed people without water in St Petersburg on the west coast near Tampa Bay, deaths reported in St Lucie County on the east coast. Disney World near Orlando is labeled north of the line.

Forecasters continue to warn of torrential rain, flash flooding, high winds and possible storm surges – which occur when water moves inland from the coast – several feet high along the northeast coast Florida.

Gov. Ron DeSantis said in a news conference Wednesday night that at least 116 tornado warnings were issued across Florida on Wednesday, with 19 tornadoes confirmed so far in the state.

A captioned BBC graphic says "Storm surges could overwhelm Florida homes"and then showed that potential waves (up to 15 ft) could be nearly as tall as a house. The graphic shows that rising water is more dangerous at high tide
The BBC's annotated track map tracks Hurricane Milton towards Florida. In the graphic, it shows the storm moving from the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida, passing Tampa after 02:00 on Thursday and Orlando before 14:00 the same day.

Where is Hurricane Milton?

With the most recently recorded wind gusts of up to 85 mph (140 km/h), Milton is now entering the Atlantic Ocean and is forecast to pass north of the Bahamas late Thursday.

Its sheer size means its effects are felt much more widely than the shaded cone shown above.

In addition to most of Florida, the storm’s effects were also felt in Georgia and South Carolina.

During its multi-day journey, Milton moved east from the Gulf of Mexico, where it was classified as a category one hurricane on Sunday. It also swept across Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.

Before it hit Florida, forecasters said it “wobbled” south, forcing forecasters to change its path slightly.

The storm affected some areas recently devastated by Hurricane Helene. Tampa, which has a population of more than three million people in the broader metropolitan area, is just north of Siesta Key, where the storm made landfall.

An annotated satellite image from the BBC shows the location of Hurricane Milton as it passes over the US state of Florida. Highlighted locations include Tampa, as well as the countries of Mexico and Cuba

Where is the evacuation area after Hurricane Milton?

Traffic jams formed and airports were declared closed as Floridians were told to prepare for the state’s largest evacuation effort in years. Officials said Milton could be the worst storm to hit the area in about a century.

As the storm approached, most counties were in an official state of emergency and evacuations were ordered up and down Florida’s west coast.

Issued by the disaster management agency a list and map about evacuation orders spanning dozens of counties. Several large shelters were also prepared as a last resort for those trapped.

An annotated map has a title "Millions fled their homes in Florida before Milton struck" shows several Florida counties highlighted where mandatory evacuation orders have been issued, including the city of Tampa

What are storms and how do they form?

A hurricane – sometimes called a cyclone or hurricane – is a type of tropical storm that forms in the North Atlantic Ocean. They bring strong winds and heavy rain.

When ocean air is warm and moist, it rises and then begins to cool – causing clouds to form.

Sometimes this rising air can move away at the top of the storm faster than it can be replaced at the surface, causing surface pressure to drop.

The drop in pressure causes the winds to speed up with more air then being pulled in as the storm strengthens.

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (Noaa) predicts the 2024 hurricane season will be more active than usual. Rising average sea temperatures due to human-caused climate change are partly to blame.

BBC graphic depicting the basic components of a storm, including an ocean surface and body of water with temperatures higher than 27C (81F), an upper low pressure area with horizontally rotating winds, and air Heat and moisture rise to form rain clouds

How are storms classified?

Hurricanes are divided into five categories based on their wind speed.

Milton was repeatedly classified as a Category 5 storm – the highest level – but weakened as it approached the US coast, becoming a Category 3 storm.

After landfall, it was further downgraded to category one.

BBC images explain the scale of storm Saffir-Simpson. At category one, the storm has winds of 74-95 mph (119-153 km/h), which are expected to cause some damage and power outages. At category two, storms have wind speeds of 96-110 mph and can cause widespread damage. At level three, the storm has winds ranging from 111-129 mph, with heavy damage expected to well-built homes. At category four, the storm has winds of 130-156 mph, which are expected to cause severe damage to well-built homes. At level 5, the storm has winds of more than 157 mph, with many buildings expected to be destroyed and major roads cut off.

How relevant is climate change?

Hurricane Milton rapidly strengthened as it passed through exceptionally warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, where sea surface temperatures are about 1-2 degrees Celsius higher than average.

Warmer waters mean storms can gain more energy, potentially leading to higher wind speeds.

A warmer atmosphere can also hold more moisture – up to around 7% for every 1C increase in temperature. This means rainfall from storms can be more intense.

And global sea levels have been rising in recent decades, largely due to global warming.

This makes it more likely that a given storm surge will lead to coastal flooding.

In Florida, average sea levels have risen more than 7 inches (18cm) since 1970, according to US government data.

A full scientific analysis is needed to quantify the exact role climate change played in Storm Milton.

But its rapid intensification is consistent with expectations about how these storms are changing in a warming world.

Map showing rainfall over the past 24 hours in Florida due to Hurricane Milton. The rain intensity scale increased from 0 to 15 inches reflected in the map showing intense rain over Tampa, on the west coast. The map shows Florida as a peninsula tilted southeast relative to the rest of the United States, suggesting Orlando is also in the higher rain belt. The further away from the storm's path, the less rainfall.
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