What will Iran, Hezbollah and Israel do next after the attack in Lebanon?

Assassination of Hassan Nasrallah by Israel, long one–Permanent leader of Hezbollahis a major escalation in the war with the Lebanese militant group.

It has likely brought the region one step closer to a broader and even more damaging conflict, one that draws in both Iran and the United States.

So where is it likely to go from here?

That largely depends on three basic questions.

Hezbollah is reeling from blow after blow.

Its command structure was decapitated, with More than a dozen high-ranking commanders were assassinated. Its communications were sabotaged with incredible shock the explosion of its pager and radioand many of its weapons were destroyed in air strikes.

US-based Middle East security analyst Mohammed Al-Basha said: “The loss of Hassan Nasrallah would have significant implications, potentially destabilizing the group and changing its political strategy and military force of this group in the short term.”

But any expectations that this vehemently anti-Israel organization will suddenly back down and demand peace on Israel’s terms may be misplaced.

Hezbollah has vowed to continue the fight. It still has thousands of fighters, many of them veterans who recently fought in Syria, and they are demanding revenge.

The country still has a significant arsenal of missiles, many of them Long-range, precision-guided weapons can reach Tel Aviv and other cities. There will be pressure within its ranks to use those soon, before they too are destroyed.

But if they did, in a mass attack intended to overwhelm Israel’s air defenses and kill civilians, Israel’s response could be devastating, devastating Lebanon’s infrastructure or even will expand to Iran.

This assassination is a blow to Iran as well as to Hezbollah. It already is announced five days of mourning.

It also took emergency precautions, hiding its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, in case he too was assassinated.

Iran has yet to retaliate for the insult the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in July in a guest house in Tehran. What has happened now will cause hardliners in the regime to consider some kind of response.

Iran has a whole range of heavily armed militias around the Middle East, the so-called “Axis of resistance“.

In addition to Hezbollah, the country also has Houthi forces in Yemen and many groups in Syria and Iraq. Iran could also ask these groups to increase attacks on both Israeli and US bases in the region.

But whatever response Iran chooses, it will likely tailor it to avoid starting a war it cannot hope to win.

If anyone had any doubts before this assassination, they will no longer have any doubts.

Israel clearly has no intention of suspending its military campaign for 21 days The ceasefire was proposed by 12 countriesincluding its closest ally, the United States.

Their military thinks they have Hezbollah in a weak position now, so they will want to keep attacking until the threat from those missiles is eliminated.

Barring a surrender by Hezbollah – which is unlikely – it is difficult to see how Israel could achieve its war goal of eliminating the threat of Hezbollah attacks without sending troops on the ground.

The Israel Defense Forces released footage of its infantry training near the border for this purpose.

But Hezbollah has also spent the past 18 years, since the end of the last war, training to fight the next war. In his last public speech before his death, Nasrallah told his followers that an Israeli attack on southern Lebanon would, in his words, “a historic opportunity”.

For the IDF, entering Lebanon will be relatively easy. But getting out could – like Gaza – take months.