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What to Expect at China’s National People’s Congress as Xi Tightens Grip


China’s leaders are expected to use a meeting of the top legislature starting Sunday to outline a plan to restore public confidence and boost economic growth after an uneventful year. stability, disruption and discontent surrounding the government’s Covid-19 restrictions.

The annual session of the National People’s Congress is largely ceremonial with the aim of conveying the beliefs of the ruling Communist Party and inspiring national unity. For the country’s top leader, Xi Jinping, this year’s event will also be key to consolidating his power following his signature “no Covid” policy, which has now been repealed. sparked widespread protests in November and exacerbated the economic downturn.

Leadership will set an agenda to address challenges such as growing local government debt, unemployment, housing decline, weak exports and a shrinking population. Delegates are expected to adopt decisions made first, behind closed doors, by the leaders of the party in power.

At the end of the nine-day meeting, Mr. Xi will almost certainly be appointed to another five-year term as president after securing a breakthrough third term as party leader in October. He is also expected to appoint his loyalists and allies to key government positions.

Here’s what to expect from the legislative gathering.

The gathering will be the first since China abruptly lifted “zero Covid”, a deeply unpopular lockdown and isolation policy.

On the eve of the congress, China’s propaganda machine released a triumphant story claiming that under Xi’s leadership, the party’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic was a “miracle in human history.” ” and “absolutely correct”. It has emphasized the importance of unity behind the party’s leaders.

The People’s Daily, the party’s mouthpiece, said: “As long as the party and people always stand side by side, think together and work together, no storm can shake the iron will. our own, and no difficulty can stop our resolute steps.”

Security around the city will be tight and traffic is likely to be congested as some 3,000 delegates from around the country handpicked by the party flock to the capital and convene at the Great Hall of the People.

In recent years, delegates have to be tested for Covid and wear masks when meeting. It is unclear how many such restrictions will remain. Despite the lifting of most Covid restrictions across the country, foreign journalists invited to cover the congress were told that they had to quarantine overnight to attend some press conferences.

As the meeting opens, outgoing premier Li Keqiang will present a government work report expected to include an economic growth target of around 5% for the year.

The Chinese economy has weakest performance for decades last year, followed by closures and then a widespread Covid outbreak in December. Businesses have been rattled in recent years by crackdowns on Big Tech and other fields, and developers out of money when the regulator restrained debt piled up.

In recent weeks, local officials have confronted protesters in multiple cities after several cities cut off health insurance to deal with the debt crisis. The youth unemployment rate is high and the birth rate is at a record low. In January, the country announced its first population decline in six decades.

To spur economic growth, a key pillar of party legitimacy, the party is expected to commit to boosting middle-class spending, restoring confidence to investors and creating jobs. new.

In a sign of concern about the fragility of the economy, Chinese officials have adopted business-friendly language, marking a shift from an emphasis on developing a more state-controlled economy. China analysts will be watching to see how the work report balances Mr. Xi’s statistical orientation with pro-growth rhetoric.

The premier’s report will likely reflect Mr. Xi’s long-term vision of China’s leadership in a more multipolar world, replacing the US-led international order. Mr. Xi has stated that China’s success has proven that modernization is not synonymous with Westernization.

For Mr. Xi, this will require reducing the country’s dependence on the West for key technologies, building a world-class military, strengthening the party’s control over the security apparatus, steer the economy and limit financial risks.

China is facing scrutiny over US allegations that it is looking into supply weapons and ammunition for Russia during the war in Ukraine. The United States has impose far-reaching limits on exporting semiconductors to China. Many economies are bracing for a recession, which will reduce demand for Chinese exports.

Like a dispute about a Chinese spy balloon Last month proved, relations with the United States are more unstable than ever, especially as China takes a more confrontational stance towards Taiwan – the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its territory. . Observers will be watching the congress for any legislation or subtle signs of a change in Taiwan policy.

The National People’s Congress also finalizes personnel decisions for the prime minister, deputy prime minister, state councilor and dozens of ministerial-level departments. Some of these were fixed at the previous Party Congress, and others were decided in closed sessions prior to the event.

Mr. Xi’s close ally, Li Qiang, currently second in the party’s top body, the Politburo Standing Committee, will take over as prime minister. As is customary for the prime minister, the incoming Mr. Lee will hold a press conference at the end of the congress, in which reporters’ questions are usually considered first.

Analysts are also looking for other appointments to lead China’s economy and financial sector. They include Ding Xuexiang, who is expected to be the executive deputy prime minister. He Lifeng, another close ally of Mr. Xi and head of China’s powerful economic policymaking body, is expected to become vice premier; and Zhu Hexin, a veteran banker, could be chosen to run China’s central bank.

“They are all real party members, first and foremost, close associates of Xi,” said Tony Saich, a China expert at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. Bin Binh. “It’s really a departure of a whole bunch of Western-educated, globally-integrated bureaucrats who are basically all out of time and retired.”

Women leaders have become scarcer under Xi’s tenure. For the first time in decades, the top 24 members of the party are all men. Shen Yiqin, the former party secretary of southwestern China’s Guizhou province, could be appointed a state councilor.

The party has also signaled a major institutional reshuffle that will help carry out Mr. Xi’s agenda by bringing the party deeper into China’s ministries of state and society by expanding.

A few details have been released so far, but at a meeting of national leaders On Tuesday, Mr. Xi called for “deepening reform of party and state institutions.” China watchers are discussing changes that could bring China’s vast security apparatus and financial watchdogs under closer scrutiny of Xi and the party.

“Xi Jinping has a sizable set of goals that he wants the one-party state to achieve from now on,” said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank. to 2035. “Frustration with China’s pervasive bureaucracy is driving these aggressive interventions,” he said.

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