What the Russian-Ukrainian war meant for ordinary Americans, explained

It’s been two weeks since Russian forces invade Ukraine — and the consequences pile up, both regionally and worldwide.

So far, the war has led to Hundreds of people died and were injuredfrequent shelling of major cities and intense gun battles between Russian soldiers and Ukrainian defense forces, which have seen a civilian volunteer stream. More than 2 million people have escape from Ukrainewith the increasing number of refugees entering neighboring countries humanitarian crisis.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated Russia’s goal is to “de-militarize” Ukraine, but there is little evidence to support any aggression on the part of Ukraine. Most experts believe that Russia’s ultimate goal may involve removing Ukraine’s current pro-Western, democratic government – led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – and establishing a pro-Russian regime. in its place.

The United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have condemn the invasion of Russia, with President Joe Biden calling the war “absurd”. Many countries, including the United States, have imposed a series of economic sanctions about Russia during the war – and they may not be over yet. US officials have suggested that sanctions can still be implemented.

The rapidly evolving situation has raised some common questions: What does the economic impact of war mean for you? Will the US send troops to Russia or Ukraine? And how could it all end?

Here’s what you need to know:

Why didn’t the US send troops to Ukraine?

Some in the US have openly questioned whether US troops could be deployed to help protect Ukraine and its people. Biden has effectively addressed those questions, said at the end of february that the United States “has no intention against Russia.”

Since the invasion began, the United States has ordered about 14,000 troops to NATO allies in the region such as Germany, Poland and Romania. The US has also ordered all troops stationed in Ukraine before the invasion to evacuate – along with any US citizens – and join US forces stationed elsewhere in Europe.

The Pentagon and the Biden administration have been careful to explain exactly why, in hopes of preventing this conflict from spreading further. “Our forces are not and will not be involved in the conflict,” Biden said last month, adding that any US troops in Europe would only “defend our NATO allies”. me and reassure those allies in [eastern Europe]. “

Essentially, Biden is looking to avoid direct conflict between US and Russian military forces, avoiding an escalation of the invasion into a global conflict between Putin and the West.

“It was a world war, when Americans and Russians started shooting at each other,” Biden said.

Similarly, Ian Bremmer, president of geopolitical consulting firm Eurasia Group, told CNBC this week The fact that Western countries send troops to fight the Ukrainian army against Russia, or establish a no-fly zone over the country’s territory, is a “shouldn’t do” because the consequences are too great.

“That leads to a direct confrontation between the NATO and Russian militaries and, accordingly, the risk of a Third World War,” Bremmer said.

What war means for markets, inflation and you

The war in Ukraine – and the threat beyond instability in Europe – threw Global market in chaotic, largely due to Russia’s dominant role in several global commodity markets. Recent World Bank Group President David Malpass call it “a disaster” effects on the world economy could lead to higher global inflation and hit poorer countries hardest.

That is unlikely to cause a recession in the US, where Strong economic growth over the past year – but the war is likely to continue to affect prices and consumer confidence.

Gas price has grown to record levels in the United States, and Biden warns on Tuesday that the cost of gas “will increase further” following a ban on Russian oil imports. He pledged to find ways to reduce that increase.

It’s not just gas. Combined, Russia and Ukraine account for nearly 30% of the world’s wheat exports, according to Capital Economics – and prices for products like wheat and corn soar since the war started.

Last week, CNBC Make It offers some advice for young people looking to protect their finances during these tumultuous times, including managing fuel costs by using public transport whenever possible and focusing on long-term investments are somewhat shielded from the current volatility.

How can this end?

While Ukraine’s defense forces have so far built an inspiring resistance, CNBC noted on Tuesday that most analysts and experts believe that Russia’s military power will ultimately be difficult to sustain in a protracted conflict. However, it is impossible to know what will happen next.

Some experts seem to believe that a possible scenario includes Putin gaining some sort of “patch of control” over parts of Ukraine, giving part of the territory to a loyal new regime. with Russia. But many analysts say that the vast majority of Ukrainians protest against Russian control in their own country, and would likely refuse to recognize any pro-Russian regime.

The best-case scenario for Ukraine and its European neighbors could be a diplomatic solution, as Putin fails to remove Zelenskyy’s democratic government and ultimately agrees to withdraw all Russian forces.

That outcome seems unlikely, after the latest ceasefire talks between the two countries failure – But Russia’s position seems to be softening after the tough slogans it faced in Ukraine. Theoretically, a diplomatic solution is still possible.

Even in that scenario, however, the physical and political damage of the conflict is likely to reshape European politics for the foreseeable future. Earlier this week, Economist Tim Ash tells CNBC that Putin may be looking to build a new “Iron Curtain” of pro-Russian states between him and the rest of Europe – and that neighboring NATO countries will likely remain on the defensive for a while. time, fearing hostile actions spilling over their own borders.

Ultimately, says Ash, Putin is determined to re-establish Russian dominance over the former Soviet states that have become increasingly aligned with Western powers.

“Putin still wants Ukraine,” he said.

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