What is happening in Syria and why now?

The Assad family has ruled Syria for more than 50 years with an iron fist. Now that’s over.

Bashar al-Assad became president after the death in 2000 of his father Hafez, who ruled for nearly three decades.

In 2011, he brutally suppressed a peaceful, pro-democracy uprising, sparking a brutal civil war that left more than half a million people dead and another 12 million forced to flee their homes.

Twelve days ago, the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied rebel factions launched a major offensive in northwestern Syria.

Rebels quickly captured the country’s second-largest city, Aleppo, then swept south along the highway to the capital, Damascus, as the army collapsed.

Russia announced that Assad had resigned and left Syria on Sunday, hours after rebels entered Damascus and crowds gathered in the streets to celebrate, although his whereabouts remain unknown. .

HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani later went to Damascus and told the Syrian people: “The future is ours.”

For the past four years, it felt like the civil war was over.

Assad’s government has regained control of most Syrian cities with help from Russia, Iran and Iranian-backed militias such as Hezbollah, and the front lines have largely been frozen.

However, much of the country remains outside of government control.

The rebels’ last strongholds are in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, which border Türkiye and are home to more than 4 million people, many of whom have had to flee their homes. It is dominated by HTS, but several allied rebel groups and jihadist groups are also based there. Rebel factions backed by Türkiye also control territory with the support of the Turkish military.

On November 27, HTS and its allies launched a surprise attack.

After three days, they took control of most of Aleppo – Syria’s second largest city. They said they encountered little resistance on the ground after the government quickly withdrew troops and security forces.

Meanwhile, Turkish-backed rebel factions took advantage of the government’s withdrawal by launching a separate attack on northern Aleppo territory led by a Kurdish-led militia alliance approved by the United States. Ky supported, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) controlled.

Assad vowed to “crush” the rebels with the help of his allies. Russian warplanes stepped up attacks on rebel-held areas and Iran-backed militias sent reinforcements to support troops near Hama – the next city south on the route to Damascus.

But Hama fell to rebels on Thursday, after days of fierce fighting that forced the army to retreat.

Rebels declared their next goal was to capture Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, and achieved that goal on Saturday evening after just a day of fighting. At the same time, other rebel factions reached the suburbs of Damascus.

Early Sunday morning, rebels led by HTS announced they had entered Damascus and released those detained there. the country’s most notorious military prison, Saydnaya.

Less than two hours later, they announced: “Tyrant Bashar al-Assad has fled.”

Activists and military officers said the president left Damascus on a plane to an undisclosed location.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali declared in a video that he was “ready to cooperate with” any leader chosen by “the Syrian people”.

Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani ordered his forces not to approach official authorities, saying they would remain under the prime minister’s authority until the “official” handover.

The rebels also promised to build a “homeland for all people, including all sects and social classes”.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based monitoring group, reported that at least 910 people have been killed, including 138 civilians, since the rebel offensive began.

The Islamist militant group leading the offensive against Assad was formed in 2012 under a different name, al-Nusra Front.

The Al-Nusra Front, which pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda the following year, is considered one of the most effective and dangerous groups opposing President Assad.

But the force is feared for its jihadist ideology and is seen as at odds with the main largely secular rebel alliance – the Free Syrian Army.

In 2016, Al-Nusra severed ties with al-Qaeda and adopted the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham when it merged with other factions a year later.

However, the United Nations, the US, the UK and a number of other countries continue to consider HTS an affiliate of al-Qaeda and often refer to the organization as al-Nusra Front. The United States lists Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani as a specially designated global terrorist and offers a $10 million reward for information leading to his capture.

HTS consolidated its power in Idlib and Aleppo provinces by crushing opponents, including affiliates of the al-Qaeda group and the Islamic State (IS). It established the so-called Syrian Salvation Government to administer the territory according to Islamic law.

For years, Idlib remained a battleground as Syrian government forces tried to regain control.

But in 2020, Türkiye and Russia brokered the ceasefire to block the government’s attempt to retake Idlib. The ceasefire has largely held despite sporadic fighting.

HTS and its allies said on November 27 that they launched an attack to “stop the invasion”accused the government and Iranian-backed militias of escalating attacks on civilians.

But it comes at a time when the government is already weakened by years of war, sanctions and corruption – when allies Russia and Iran are preoccupied with other conflicts.

The Iran-backed group Hezbollah recently suffered an Israeli attack in Lebanon. Israeli strikes eliminated Iran’s military commanders in Syria, and Russia was distracted by the war in Ukraine.

Without them, Assad’s forces would be exposed.

Russia said it was “following the dramatic events in Syria with extreme concern”. The State Department called on “all relevant parties” in the Syrian conflict to “renounce the use of violence and resolve all governance issues through political means”. They also said that Russian military bases in Syria are “on high alert”, although there is “no serious threat to their security”.

Iran expressed its hope to “quickly end the military conflict, stop terrorist acts and start a national dialogue” with all sectors of Syrian society.

Türkiye said Syria is now at a stage “where the Syrian people will shape the future of their country”. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the new government “must be formed in an orderly manner” and warned that “the principle of inclusiveness must never be compromised”.

Israel’s prime minister said the fall of Assad’s government was a “direct result” of his country’s actions against Hezbollah and Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu also announced that he had ordered the Israeli army to temporarily “take over” Syrian army positions in the demilitarized zone in the Golan Heights, and said that the 1974 ceasefire agreement between the two countries had ” collapse” because the Syrian army abandoned its garrison.

The White House said US President Joe Biden and his team are “closely monitoring unusual events in Syria and regularly staying in touch with partners in the region”.

Iraq, where powerful Iran-backed militias have sent fighter jets to support the Syrian army in the civil war, said it supported efforts to open a dialogue in Syria “leading to the adoption of pluralistic constitution to protect the human and civil rights of the Syrian people”.

Jordan’s King Abdullah, who supported the rebels at the start of the war, said they respected the will and choice of the Syrian people. He stressed the importance of stability and avoiding “any conflict that could lead to chaos”.

The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, called Assad’s fall “a positive and long-awaited development” and said the bloc’s priority was to ensure security. in the area.