I was sure Kamala Harris will win. I was convinced that she would have a mission. But now, a week after Election Day, I can admit I was wrong. Most of my misjudgments stem from underestimation Donald Trump and its ability to connect with voters and make significant inroads beyond its base. Part of it also comes from my own personal desires – my inability to hear things I don’t want to hear and my steadfast refusal to reconsider my own theory of the case. I want to learn from all these mistakes. So here are some things I got wrong about the 2024 election cycle.
Split ticket voting is real
I absolutely do not think that ticket-splitting is a real phenomenon in the year of our Lord, 2024. After all, in the post-Trump era, Deeply partisan and polarizedHow could this strategy make sense? Well, just look at the three battleground states that Trump and the Democratic senate candidate won. Ruben Gallego take it away Arizona with 50% of the vote, between Harris (46.7%) and Trump (52.3%); Elissa Slotkin score a Michigan Senate seat with 48.6%, just above Harris (48.3%) and below Trump (49.7%); And Jacky Rosen Defended his seat with 47.9% in Nevadawhich Trump won 50.6% to 47.5%. In other words, it it seems that thing some Trump voters in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada voted for Democrats; others may have left the bottom of the ticket blank, potentially reducing Republican votes. (Not to mention, some voters support Trump And abortion rights.) Taken together, all of this suggests that the Trump brand, in these states at least, appears stronger than the GOP brand.
MAGA is the Republican Party and the Republican Party is MAGA
I thought the Republican Party would go back to normal — that people liked it Liz Cheney and the rest of the Never Trump team will lull Republicans back to the land of Mitt Romney and John McCain. While I wanted that to happen, that ship has now sailed. The MAGA movement has cannibalized the GOP, and the GOP has happily accepted the power that MAGA has given them. That said, Trumpism is not necessarily scalable. Trump won in 2024, but Trump impersonators in swing states did not: Kari Lake, first of all, has now lost both the governor and Senate races in Arizona, while Mark Robinson lost nearly 15 points in North Carolinarace for governor, while Trump takes charge of the state. And don’t forget, Ron DeSantis bombed in the Republican primaries to do his best Trump impression.
Trump was able to grow his voter base
I think the Trump campaign’s decision to double the number of men without a college education would be a mistake. But those voters are real do appear in large numbers. In this regard, the former president’s communication strategy also really paid off: He continued ton of podcasts (everything from Joe Roganis to According to Vonnto the Nelk brothers‘), while doing very little traditional media over the long term—a big departure from his frequent visits to Fox News in 2016. Traditional media, campaign His reasoning, did not move the needle; podcast did. And they trust that instinct based on a simple slogan: “Maximize men and retain women.”
MAGA built its own media…and it worked
I completely didn’t realize how bad Trump’s media-industrial complex really was. MAGA media person spoke with Trump’s people; They don’t talk to readers about the New York Times or the Washington Post. And they don’t need to, because Trump already has enough ground; he just needs to get them out there to vote. This quote from Politico, based on an NBC survey, summed it up nicely: “Among those who get their news from the ‘press,’ Biden won 70-21. Among those who get their news from ‘YouTube/Google,’ Trump leads 55-39.” The left is nervous or uncomfortable with the idea of partisan media. It also Not available kind of footprint similar to social media rights, which helps amplify partisan content. So when voters log on to social networks, a lot of them directed systematically to right-wing content.
The usual rules of politics do not apply to Trump
Trump’s supporters certainly believe he will do a lot of the things he says he will, while others, perhaps because they see him as a celebrity, apply a different standard, in that he doesn’t necessarily Take responsibility for what you say. EQUAL Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster, speak female time, “People think he says things to effect, that he’s blushing, because that’s part of what he does, his jokes. They don’t believe it will actually happen.” Others seem inexplicably captivated by his moral failings. Be a voter speak Philadelphia Inquirer: “He’s good and bad. People say he is a dictator. I believe it. I see him as Hitler…But I voted for that man.”
Voting isn’t broken after all
I think the polls overestimate Trump. But if there were, they would have been belowestimate Trump (like they did in 2016 And 2020). Polls predict a race with a margin of error where the odds are equivalent to flipping a coin. And in many vibrational states, it used to be a race with a margin of error. EQUAL MSNBC reports, “In Michigan, the 538 average has Harris up 1 and the RCP average has her up 0.5. The results show Trump, the predicted winner, up 1.4.” The numbers also (correctly) suggest that down-ballot Democrats will do better at the top of the ticket. But ultimately, polls still underestimate the overall power Trump has in driving his people to the ballot box — especially when he himself is on the ballot. When Trump is not on the ballot, elections tend to play out very differently.
Inflation is inexplicable
By some index, Joe Biden‘s economy has succeeded—especially comparison to the world’s richest countries. Unemployment in the US remains low, while the stock market booms and inflation cooling. Democrats, however, have had trouble communicating the administration’s successes, and people essentially see rising commodity prices and blame the current administration. It is also important to note that around the world, voters are angry with the status quo. Headwinds against office are a real phenomenon everywhere from England to Germany. Voters are angry about inflation, COVID, wealth inequality, and immigration. Much of this election is simply an expression of anger against the ruling party.
In the end, I just have a hard time believing that voters won’t find things like January 6 and the Trump event. authoritarian language eliminated. I believe that voters will care more about abortion and democracy than they do. I underestimated the celebrity power Trump still has to overwhelm the rest of the political ecosystem. Look, a lot has been said about what the Democratic Party should have done — from relying on different tactics or language — and there will be more to come as the party reckons with its future. me. But for me, I want to take a step back and learn from my wrong assumptions before moving forward.
