Jordan Bardella, leader of the far-right National Rally party who could become France’s next prime minister, has repeated the same basic promises since the snap election was called in France.
He said if his party formed a government, he would significantly reduce immigration, cut taxes and crack down on crime.
But the National Congress is the heir to a political tradition in France that has been marked by overt racism, anti-Semitism and Holocaust denial, and while the party has moved away from that past, some of its underlying philosophies remain embedded in its policies: Immigrants pose a threat to France’s security, economy and national identity.
Among Mr Bardella’s plans are to strip children born in France of non-French parents of their automatic right to French nationality at age 18; end free medical treatment for undocumented people, except in emergencies; and restrict citizenship with a second passport from taking jobs considered sensitive, like running a nuclear power plant and working in “strategic” defense.
He also wants to stop convicted criminals from living in public housing and cut the country’s sales tax on all forms of energy, from fuel to electricity.
How he will do that is not entirely clear. The party’s 21-page program, replete with photos and graphics, is packed with broad ideas but offers few details on how to implement them. And over the past three weeks of intense campaigning and debate, Mr. Bardella has backed away from some of his pledges or put them on the back burner.
But even some measures that have always been in his plans — like stripping away some automatic citizenship rights — and that he wants to implement immediately are likely to face opposition from President Emmanuel Macron and the country’s constitutional council.
And then there is the question of how Mr. Bardella will be able to pay it all back.
“They will have difficulty implementing some of their programs,” said Rémi Lefebvre, professor of political science at the University of Lille.
It is not even clear that Mr. Bardella, 28 years old, will become the next prime minister of France. His party and his allies won about 33 percent of the popular vote for the 577-seat National Assembly in the first round of last Sunday’s two-round election. But only 38 of their candidates won their seats.
Most of the remaining candidates will face a decisive second vote next Sunday, and a nationwide movement has been building across the country to prevent them from winning an outright majority. More than 200 of their challengers have withdrawn from the three-way race, providing more votes for their strongest opponents to block them.
Mr Bardella has said he will not take over as prime minister without an absolute majority of 289 seats. But if he becomes prime minister, he has promised that his government will introduce some generous measures this summer.
Some of the bills fit with his party’s anti-immigration stance, such as the restriction order. dual citizen certain jobs, as well as ending some free medical treatment for undocumented people.
In the years since, Mr. Bardella has promised to implement the party’s long-standing principle of “national preference” — giving French citizens preferential treatment over foreigners for certain jobs, benefits or government subsidies.
Anne-Charlène Bezzina, associate professor of public law and constitutional expert at the University of Rouen Normandy, said the measures were likely to be rejected by the country’s top constitutional council.
Just last spring, the court ruled against limiting social benefits to foreign citizens who have been in France for less than five years, stating that such restrictions would seriously infringe on the right to national unity enshrined in the French Constitution.
Ms Bezzina explained that distributing benefits by separating people based on birth or citizenship goes against the fundamental structures of the French Republic, which date back to the Enlightenment and were enshrined in the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen in 1789.
“You can’t differentiate between French people who are native or dual nationals,” she said in an interview. “It’s like differentiating French people by birthright or bloodline. That goes against the principle of equality.”
Experts say Mr Bardella’s immediate, tough-on-crime plan is likely to be implemented quickly and smoothly. In his first weeks in office, he has promised to pass legislation setting minimum sentences for repeat offenders and to cut state benefits for families of young offenders who reoffend.
“I think they can do that to satisfy their voters,” said Mr. Lefebvre, the political science professor.
To put money back into French wallets, Mr. Bardella’s main promise is to significantly cut the country’s energy sales tax. When pressed on how he would pay for that measure—estimated at 17 billion euros (about $18.2 billion) by the Finance Ministry—Mr. Bardella floated several possibilities, including cutting France’s payments to the European Union by 2 billion euros.
There, Mr Lefebvre predicted that he would likely again face conflict with Mr Macron, a strong supporter of the European Union.
But Mr. Bardella could also face a technical challenge. In the short term, if the French government simply refuses to send that payment, it would likely face immediate sanctions and a corresponding cut in transfers from the European Union—many of which go to French farmers, the biggest beneficiaries of agricultural subsidies, said Eulalia Rubio, a senior fellow in European economic affairs at the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris.
Negotiations for the European Union’s next multi-year budget are due to begin next year. If the French government insists on being reimbursed for future payments, it is likely to get something, she said, although not as much as 2 billion euros.
But Ms Rubio, who is also a senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies, said the cost to the European Union, of which France is the second-largest contributor, would be huge.
“France has always been the country that has the vision of a bigger budget for the European Union,” Rubio said. “You see Macron asking for a doubling of EU spending. So we can completely forget about a big defense budget and completely forget about more economic support for Ukraine.”
