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The big stories about money and politics in the race for the White House
US Vice President Kamala Harris has now won enough delegates to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee to face Donald Trump in this year’s election.
The question is how will she fare against Trump? November Election.
ONE probe Morning Consult’s Monday poll, the first conducted since Biden dropped out, put Trump ahead of Harris by two points, 47 percent to 45 percent. That’s down sharply from the six-point advantage the former president had over the 81-year-old incumbent.
The survey also found that more Democrats now feel strongly motivated to vote than Republicans, 27% to 24%.
trumpet remains the favorite to win back the White House, according to prediction markets, but Harris’ odds have narrowed.
In the 24 hours ending at 9:45 a.m. ET Tuesday, the implied probability of a Harris victory rose from 38 percent to 41 percent, according to political prediction market PredictIt. The probability of a Trump victory fell slightly from 60 percent to 56 percent.
A Financial Times average of polls conducted before Biden’s announcement showed Harris trailing Trump by about 3 percentage points, a gap that has narrowed in recent weeks.
But a word of caution: most of the Harris-Trump polling so far has involved a hypothetical matchup rather than the actual campaign underway right now.
Biden and Harris have had similar approval ratings that have steadily increased over Biden’s tenure, with Harris often lagging the president.
That has changed in recent days, with Biden hitting record lows in personal approval ratings, according to an average from FiveThirtyEight.
With just over 100 days until the US election on November 5, the above data is sure to change and continue to change — perhaps even dramatically, given recent history.
As Harris herself said, Monday is “the first day of our campaign.”
Additional research by Jonathan Vincent and John Burn-Murdoch
