The decision by Germany and the United States to send battle tanks to Ukraine, reversing months of resistance, on Wednesday prompted additional pledges from around Europe and predictions of Russian victory. But it could be months before tanks rumble on the battlefield.
“These things can help Ukraine defend itself, win and prevail as an independent nation,” said Jens Stoltenberg, NATO secretary general. “Soon it will become a regular sight in the fields of Ukraine,” British Ministry of Defense crowded in a Twitter post with a photo of a German Leopard 2 tank and a British-made Challenger 2 tank chewing through a muddy training ground in Poland.
But not early. Ukraine’s military still needs training to use the powerful Western war machines, and bringing them into the conflict zone is not an easy task. The tanks, which have been promised by Berlin and Washington, will not be delivered until spring or summer at the earliest – not in time to help Ukraine defend the hotly contested towns and cities near Bakhmut, in the east of the country. , where Russian forces recently advanced in an onslaught. Tired ground attack.
The more immediate bonus from Wednesday’s announcements could be to provide a route for about a dozen other European countries to donate German-made Leopard 2s to Ukraine – a step that would not have been taken if without the consent of Berlin and a parallel promise of Washington to its contribution M1 Abrams tank.
“Sending Abrams seems to be the key to unlocking Leopards, which could potentially reach Ukraine more quickly,” said Sofia Besch, a European defense affairs expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. a lot of”.
Here’s a look at what happens next.
Which countries are donating Western tanks, and how much?
The largest contribution came from the United States – 31 M1 Abrams, enough to supply a battalion of Ukrainian troops. The Abrams is one of the most sophisticated tank systems in the world, but it requires specialized training, technology for components and specialized fuel to keep it running. On Wednesday, US officials said it would be at least a few months before Abrams could be delivered — and would not elaborate — although other experts said it could take at least a year.
Britain, Germany and Poland have each committed to send 14 tanks, of which London is expected to deliver Challenger 2s within a few weeks. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius forecast that Berlin would take three or four months to deliver its Leopard 2 tank.
Poland has signaled that it is ready to send its own Leopard 2 tank to Ukraine. Portugal said it could supply four Leopard 2s and Norway said it could send eight more. Other commitments to supply Leopard 2s – but no quantity specified – have been made by Spain, Finland and the Netherlands. And France is considering supplying Ukraine with an unspecified number of Leclerc battle tanks.
In addition, Denmark said it could send 20 Swiss-made Piranha tanks to Ukraine after the government in Bern agreed that they could be re-exported – a process that began last weekend after when stalled for several months.
In total, that means at least 105 Western tanks have been put into service – at least in principle.
Is that enough?
Ukrainian military officials have long said they need at least 300 Western tanks to make a difference in the war. That’s “a lot of tanks at the national level,” according to an analysis Wednesday by Janes, the London-based intelligence firm.
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European armies hold at least 2,000 Leopard 2 tanks – and hundreds of other Western battle tanks. The Russians also have thousands of tanks still available in what has become a fast war of attrition, said David Silbey. a military historian at Cornell University specializing in battlefield analysis.
“The West would never manage a one-on-one match for those numbers,” Mr Silbey said.. “However, given the quality advantage of Leopard or Abrams over even the most modern Russian tanks, if the West can supply 500 to 1,000 tanks, that will make a big difference to people. Ukraine and the war”.
When will the Ukrainian military be ready to use them?
Some will head to the British training camp in the coming days to begin training on the Challenger 2 tanks London has committed to this month, based on Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Kingdom Vadym Prystaiko.
Some former military officials and experts have challenged claims – mainly by the US – that it could take months to train Ukrainian forces to use tanks. They noted that the Ukrainian troops chosen to fly them had been trained on Soviet-era tanks. So learn how to operate the Leopard 2 tank, which runs on diesel fuel and is easier to operate than the M1 Abrams, it may only take three to four weeks “to gain basic qualifications,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies said this month.
American officials, who spoke to journalists on condition of anonymity Wednesday, described a much more complicated process for the M1 Abrams, which involved training more than just to operate the tank. but also to maintain them. Part of that process will involve building a stable supply chain to ensure the tanks receive the fuel, parts and other support they need on the front lines.
While the Abrams may not be on the battlefield for what one US official describes as “some time,” training the Ukrainian military to use them should begin quickly. Currently, the US military in Germany is training Ukrainian forces to use a variety of combined and coordinated weapons, including armored fighting vehicles.
Do they have enough ammunition?
Dwindling ammunition supplies have been a stumbling block for Ukraine’s forces almost since the start of the war, as they depended on dwindling ammunition stockpiles to match aging tanks. Soviet Union and other weapons. According to Ukrainian soldiers, captured Russian tanks are an essential stop for Ukraine, but spare parts for them are often difficult to find.
Western-made tanks use ammunition compatible with NATO’s stockpile, meaning they can be replenished by any of the 30 member states of the military alliance or partners. their. Tanks will be delivered with some additional ammunition supplies. However, the war has depleted the West’s stockpile so much that some allies are increasingly worried about whether they have enough for other potential conflicts or even self-defense.
While the new Western tanks are essential to any future Ukrainian offensive, they could cause headaches for Ukrainian supply corps officers. German and American tanks have different parts and maintenance regimes, and both ammunition fire differently from the Soviet-era tanks Ukraine currently has.
How will they reach the battlefield?
The process of supplying Western weapons and other military equipment to Ukraine was one of the most closely guarded secrets of the war.
Fears that Russia would target roads, railways or exercise grounds have prompted what officials and experts describe as stealth convoys, often camouflaged or cloaked in the dark. , to avoid being attacked. Former Western military officials and experts have described a series of shipping routes, largely emanating from hubs in Poland, Slovakia and Germany, which will be crucial for bringing tanks, armored fighting vehicles steel and big guns to the front line.
Most weapons will be transported on flat wagons or trucks strong enough to carry their enormous weight. Railways are generally the fastest and safest way to transport armor, experts say, as long convoys of flatbed trucks will most likely attract Russia’s attention. Experts say it will take too much time, fuel and spare parts to bring tanks and other armored vehicles to the battlefield. In essence, they will also become moving targets for Russian warplanes.
The risk is so great – and the fear of provoking Russia is so high – that, instead of Western forces or contractors transporting them to the conflict zone, the Ukrainian military is asked to retrieve weapons from depots. in NATO territory.
