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War in Ukraine Likely to Speed, Not Slow, Shift to Clean Energy, I.E.A. Says


WASHINGTON – The energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to accelerate rather than slow the global transition away from fossil fuels and toward cleaner technologies like wind, solar and electric vehicles. , the world’s top energy agency said on Thursday.

The International Energy Agency says that while some countries have burned more fossil fuels such as coal this year in response to natural gas shortages caused by the war in Ukraine, that effect expected to be short-lived, the International Energy Agency said. World Energy Outlooka 524-page report forecasting global energy trends through 2050.

Instead, for the first time, the agency predicts that worldwide demand for all fossil fuels will peak in the near future.

One major reason is that many countries have responded to the soaring fossil fuel prices this year by using wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear power plants, hydrogen fuel, electric vehicles and electric heat pump. In the United States, Congress approved spending more than 370 billion dollars for such technologies under the recent Inflation Reduction Act. Japan is pursuing a new “green transition” program that will help fund nuclear power, hydrogen and other low-emission technologies. China, India and South Korea have all stepped up their national targets for renewable energy and nuclear power.

However, the shift to cleaner energy sources is not yet happening fast enough to avoid dangerous levels of global warming, the agency said, unless governments take stronger action. much to reduce their planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions over the next few years. .

Based on the current policies of national governments, global coal use is expected to begin to decline over the next few years, natural gas demand is likely to reach a high by the end of this decade. and oil use is expected to level off by the mid-2030s.

Meanwhile, global investment in clean energy is now expected to grow from $1.3 trillion in 2022 to more than $2 trillion annually by 2030, a significant shift, the agency said. this said.

Fatih Birol, executive director of the agency, said in an interview: “It is remarkable that many of these new clean energy goals are not being achieved solely for the sake of climate change. “Increasingly, the big drivers are energy security as well as industrial policy – ​​many countries want to be at the forefront of future energy industries.”

The energy agency estimates current energy policies lead the world to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2025 and about 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer by 2100 than before. industry, the energy agency estimates. That fits separate forecasts published by the United Nations on Wednesdaywhich analyzed the stated promises of countries to tackle emissions.

In contrast, many world leaders hope to limit average Earth’s warming to around 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid some of the most severe and irreversible risks from climate change, such as climate change. such as widespread crop failure or ecosystem collapse. That will require much steeper cuts in greenhouse gases, with emissions not only peaking in the next few years but halving by the end of the decade, say scientists. said.

“If we want to achieve more ambitious climate goals, we will likely need around $4 trillion in clean energy investments by 2030,” said Dr Birol. , or double what the agency is currently projecting. “In particular, there is not nearly enough capital to invest in developing countries.”

This year, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels is expected to increase by about 1 percent and approaching record highs, in part due to increased coal use in places like Europe as nations scramble to replace lost Russian gas. (Coal is the most polluting of all fossil fuels.)

Still, that’s a much smaller increase than some analysts had feared when the war in Ukraine first broke out. The agency says the increase in emissions would be three times greater without the rapid deployment of wind turbines, solar panels and electric vehicles around the world. Rising energy prices and weak economic growth in Europe and China also contribute to the reduction in emissions.

And the recent increase in coal use may be fleeting. European countries are currently planning to install around 50 gigawatts of renewable energy next year, enough to replace this year’s increase in coal production. And globally, the agency does not expect investment in new coal plants to grow more than expected.

Russia, once the world’s top exporter of fossil fuels, is expected to be particularly hard hit by the energy disruptions it has largely created. As European nations race to reduce their dependence on Russian oil and gas, Russia will likely face challenges in finding new markets in Asia, the report said. for natural gas. As a result, Russia’s fossil fuel exports are unlikely to return to pre-war levels.

But while the current energy crisis is supposed to benefit cleaner technologies in the long run, it is having a heartbreaking consequence today, the report found.

Governments around the world have pledged about $500 billion this year to protect consumers from soaring energy prices. And while European countries now seem have enough natural gas in stock To help them get through a mild winter this year, the report warns that next winter in Europe “could be even more difficult” due to falling reserves and new supplies to replace Russian gas, such as such as increased shipments from the United States or Qatar, is slowing. to come online.

The situation is even more dire in developing countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh, which are facing energy shortages as supplies of liquefied natural gas are diverted to Europe. Nearly 75 million people around the world have recently had access to electricity, the report said, with the potential to lose power this year. If that happens, it will be the first time in a decade that the number of people worldwide without access to modern energy has increased.

There is still the possibility that higher energy prices could cause social unrest and backfire on clean energy and climate policies in some countries. While the report concludes that climate change policies are not primarily responsible for the spike in prices – Instead, it notes that renewable energy efforts and home weathering have actually reduced the impact of energy shocks in many regions – there is always a risk that governments could feel pressured to change course, Dr. Birol said.

The new report comes less than two weeks before countries are set to gather at the United Nations climate talks in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, where diplomats will discuss whether and how to strengthen efforts to limit fossil fuel emissions and deliver more financial aid from rich to poor than countries.

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