By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Saturday is shaping up to be an exciting day in Saratoga, at least as far as the classified shares are concerned.
Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G1) and Jim Dandy S. (G2) highlight the third Saturday meeting of the summer, but both attract small yards filled with formidable short-price contenders.
However, the earning potential does exist if we can knock out the top finishers correctly, so let’s dive in and review the races:
Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G1)
Only six horses have been entered into Vanderbilt, with #4 Jackie’s Warrior (1-5) looming as an overwhelming favorite. Last year’s champion men’s sprinter had incredibly easy wins over Churchill Downs S. (G1) and True North S. (G2), so we know he’s in top form. . Jackie’s Warrior has plenty of early speed, so he’s not reliant on the race setup to ensure he gets a smooth ride. And he went 4-4 at Saratoga, recording the H. Allen Jerkens (G1) and Hopeful S. (G1) Memorial victories on his resume.
I’ll be the first to admit the morning 1-5 odds are unappealing, but I can’t think of a good reason to go against the sensational four-year-old speedster. Fighting Jackie’s Warrior requires a belief that he will produce something worse than his A game, and I have no reason to think he will back down.
Therefore, in order to make any meaningful returns on betting on Vanderbilt, we would have to turn our attention to the exotic bets and play them boldly — we can’t afford them. to include too many options below. Finally, I can recommend a precise cold capture of Jackie’s Warrior over #3 Ny Traffic (6-1)?
Ny Traffic initially made a name for itself in road races; at the age of three in 2020, he broke a trio of four straight spots running 1/16 mile or more, most notably finishing second by nose to future winner Kentucky Derby (G1 ) Authentic in the Haskell S. (G1) prize. Ny Traffic has also competed in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness S. (G1).
But here are some stats you might not have noticed: Ny Traffic has a 1 to 11 lifetime in route races and 5 to 8 in sprints. In fact, he has won the last four sprints (including three bets) by a large margin of 8 3/4 of the length.
Ny Traffic joins Vanderbilt with straight wins, including a one-time stretch win over six-time winner Beren in Chocolate Town S. six at Penn National. Ny Traffic has tactical speed, but he’s flexible on his running style and should be able to avoid pairing with Jackie’s Warrior for an early advantage. The main Saratoga race has been slow so far, so Ny Traffic — with its high level of ability to compete in long distances — should handle the test conditions well and continue to finish behind Jackie’s Warrior.
Option
First: Jackie’s Warrior
Monday: Ny Traffic
Jim Dandy S. (G2)
A small but deep field has gathered for 1/8 mile Jim Dandy S. (G2), a local stepping stone towards the prestigious Travers S. (G1) in Saratoga next month. Two of the four participants were Grade 1 winners, another was placed in a classic pair and another had won multiple Grade 3 events.
Favorite morning slim line is #2 Epicenter (3-2), won the Louisiana Derby (G2) and runner-up in both the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness S. (G1). Epicenter ran impressively in the Kentucky Derby, rallying early at sizzling pace before fighting to finish second less than a block ahead of the lengthy Rich Strike.
Epicenter also ran well in Preakness, finishing the match along the tracks to finish in second at 1 1/4 the length, but he lacked his usual initial speed and strangled as a result. speed. Epicenter competed seven times between November 2021 and May 2022, so it’s possible his long and effective campaign caught up with him on Preakness day. I also wonder if Epicenter – as a January pony – is losing its mature edge by the time the classics are out.
That’s why I will oppose Epicenter with #4 Vote early (8-5), a lightly racing March foal could offer more upside for improvement. I loved the runner-up finish of the Wood Memorial Early Vote (G2) in the spring, in which he built a solid pace and then finished strong to finish second by overtaking the winner. win Belmont S. (G1) in the future Mo Donegal.
This effort heralds an even sharper performance in Preakness. After showing a new dimensional ranking against the lead in second place, Early Vote took a clear lead down the block and maintained well to beat Epicenter by 1 1/4 degrees long.
In terms of Beyer and Brisnet speed metrics, Early Voting ran faster than Epicenter. He also has enough speed to secure an easy lead in this small field. In short, I believe Early Voting has a tactical advantage over Jim Dandy and this advantage – coupled with his obvious talent and improving record – could lead to victory at Saratoga.
Option
First: Vote early
Monday: The epicenter
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in the Saturday meeting in Saratoga?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, amputee, and horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers the Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
