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US consumers have lowered their inflation expectations for all time frames, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its November 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations on Wednesday. Two.
Over the next one year period, average consumer inflation expectations down by 0.7 percentage points to 5.2% and within three years by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%. Both declines were widespread across education and income groups.
Five-year average inflation expectations, which have been surveyed in SCE’s monthly core survey since early 2022 and first published in July 2022, also fell 0.1 percentage point to to 2.3%, the New York Fed said.
Moderate inflation expectations are good news for the Federal Reserve, as central bank policymakers meet this week to decide how much to raise interest rates in their struggle to tame inflation. broadcast. Last week, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey shows inflation expectations next year is in decline.
Average home price growth expectations fell 1 percentage point to 1.0%, the lowest since May 2020. Rising food and gas prices also fell. Next year’s average price change for gas is down 0.6 pp to 4.7% and for food down 0.8 pp to 8.3%. For rent, the average price change for the next year is down 0.1 percentage points.
With inflation moderate, consumers also expect their incomes to grow at a slower rate. Average expected income growth next year fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.8% in November, with the decline due to respondents without a college degree and household income. annual family less than 100 thousand dollars.
Still, the job outlook remains strong. the average probability of a person losing their job over the next 12 months decreases by 0.3 percentage points to 0.3 percentage points. 11.7% and the average probability of finding a job (if one’s current job is lost) increased 0.2 percentage points to 58.2%, the fourth consecutive monthly increase and the highest as of February 2020.
Average expected growth in household income rose 0.2 percentage points to 4.5% in November, a series of new highs driven by educated respondents up to high school. Household spending expectations eased slightly, with average growth expected to drop 0.1 percentage point to 6.9% from 7.0% in October.
Before that, BofA sees the US going into recession next year, but expect stock to revive in H2
