US auto sales: GM should regain full-year sales crown in strong Q4
Auto sales expected to recover further in common engine (GM) in the final quarter of 2022. GM is expected to regain the sales crown from Toyota cars (TM) for the whole year after overcoming the sharp decline in the first six months of the year.
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On Wednesday, Stellantis (STLA) and Honda’s mortobike (Ho Chi Minh City) is also preparing to report Q4 and full year 2022 sales in the US market. Ford (F) should follow immediately.
Analysts at JD Power and LMC Automotive expect total U.S. new-vehicle sales to increase in the fourth quarter, after falling in each of the previous quarters of 2022.
Analysts at Cox Automotive say General Motors will take the top spot in U.S. sales for the full year on the back of a strong fourth quarter. Japan’s Toyota will overtake GM in the US for the first time in 2021, amid a shortage of automotive chips. Cox said Honda is likely to see its biggest annual sales decline in 2022.
globally, Tesla (TSLA) deliveries hit a record 405,278 in the fourth quarter, the company said Monday. The EV giant doesn’t break down sales by country. Tesla missed its Q4 forecast despite plenty of year-end deals. TSLA stock fell 14% on Tuesday to a new two-year low.
This is how other automakers are expected to perform. Estimates from Cox Automotive show sales for the fourth quarter and full year, as well as an increase or decrease in sales compared to a year ago.
common engine
Q4 revenue estimate: 613,904 vehicles, up 40.7% year on year. It will also be up from 555,580 GM cars sold in Q3.
Estimated revenue for the whole year 2022: 2,253,641 vehicles, an increase of 2.3% compared to 2021. In the first three quarters of 2022, GM’s sales decreased by 20%, decreased by 15% and increased by 24%, respectively.
Result: Check back on Wednesday.
One issue is whether GM’s production of newer electric vehicles will increase. Sales of Bolt and Bolt EUV of the old generation have achieved good results. But production for the Hummer EV and Cadillac Lyriq, both of which use Ultium batteries, was minimal in the third quarter.
GM shares rose 0.5% to 33.81 on Tuesday stock market action.
Stock market hits resistance; Apple Skids, Tesla Dives
Toyota cars
Q4 revenue estimate: 550,948 vehicles, up 16.1%.
Estimated revenue for the whole year 2022: 2,122,665 vehicles, down 9%.
Result: Check back on Wednesday.
Toyota Motor shares rose 1.2% to 138.28 on Tuesday.
Ford
Q4 revenue estimate: 466,447 vehicles, down 7.5%.
Estimated revenue for the whole year 2022: 1,837,603 vehicles, down 2.9%.
Result: Check again later.
Ford shares rose 0.4% to 11.68 on Tuesday. The automaker announced on Tuesday that the F-Series has held the title of America’s best-selling vehicle in 2022 for its 41st year. Ford says it has sold more than 640,000 F-Series trucks in 2022. — at least one sale every 49 seconds on average.
Stellantis
Q4 revenue estimate: 342,894 vehicles, down 16.7%.
Estimated revenue for the whole year 2022: 1,542,301 vehicles, down 13.2%.
Result: Check back on Wednesday.
Stellantis stock was up 2.8% on Tuesday.
Honda’s motobike
Q4 revenue estimate: 249,379 vehicles, down 13.2%.
Estimated revenue for the whole year 2022: 977,636 vehicles, down 33.3%.
Result: Check back on Wednesday.
Honda shares rose 1.8% on Tuesday.
US auto sales to increase in Q4
As the fourth quarter of 2022 begins, worries about diminishing demand grow amid rising interest rates and the highest inflation in 40 years.
December sees used car retailer XeMax (KMX) warns of “vehicle affordability issues”, while Tesla (TSLA) offers a $7,500 discount on last-minute delivery in the United States.
Used car prices are currently dropping significantly, which could put pressure on new car prices.
On the supply side, new vehicle inventories improved “modestly” in the fourth quarter, analysts at JD Power and LMC Automotive said.
As inventories grow, analysts forecast new-vehicle sales in Q4 will grow 9.6% year-over-year to 3.55 million units. Sales fell in each of the previous quarters of 2022 due to supply issues rather than demand. But the pace of US auto sales is expected to fall 6.4% in December from 14.1 million the previous month.
Total new car sales fell 8.4% to 13.69 million units for the full year. Analysts at JD Power said sales increased in the second half of 2022 but did not offset the decline in the first half of the year.
Car sales prospects in 2023
In 2023, U.S. auto sales are expected to rebound as supply chain constraints continue to ease.
“Indications are that shipments will gradually increase throughout the year, allowing sales to pick up from 2022 levels,” said analysts at JD Power and LMC Auto.
Despite a possible economic downturn, pent-up consumer demand over the past two years is expected to keep inventory levels relatively low.
As a result, analysts say 2023 could be “another year with relatively good prices and margins” for automakers and auto dealers.
New US EV tax credits of up to $7,500 will boost demand for electric vehicles in 2023. But EVs must be assembled in North America, benefiting Tesla, GM and Ford at the expense of most foreign car manufacturers. Earnings and discounts can also limit their reach.
JD Power predicts global vehicle sales will grow 6% to 85.7 million units in 2023. But it warned that recession risks could slash forecasts by as much as 2 million units.
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