ICAO finds air travel will exceed pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023.
Commercial travel demand is expected to fully recover in 2023, with volumes exceeding 2019 levels by year’s end, a United Nations aviation agency said on Wednesday.
Forecasting a “complete and sustained” recovery, the International Civil Aviation Organization said demand would reach pre-pandemic levels on most routes by the end of the first quarter and exceed 2019 levels by about 3% by the end of 2023.
The body predicts that the year 2024 the air passenger demand will be four percent higher than in 2019.
by ICAO Press Release did not discuss issues commonly seen by aviation experts as potential constraints to growth. These include shortages of pilots and other key aviation personnel and delays in building the aircraft engines needed for new planes.
The outlook came as the United Nations agency released data showing a significant increase in travel last year compared with 2021, as many people around the world still live under severe COVID-19 restrictions during the year. limited vaccine distribution context.
Overall, air passenger numbers hit 74% of pre-pandemic levels in 2022, while passenger revenue is estimated at 68% of 2019 levels.
ICAO says the number of passengers transported by air in 2022 has increased by 47 percent year-on-year.
The predictions come as aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus have also seen a significant increase in new aircraft orders.
That’s due to pent-up demand following pandemic restrictions and a desire to replace old planes with new, less used ones. jet fuel and emit less carbon.
But both companies warn that supply chain problems will limit ramping up production.
U.S. airlines have also cited these challenges, along with the labor crisis for aircraft and air traffic workers, as another potential challenge to capacity building.
Citing these factors, United Airlines described industry capacity forecasts for 2023 as “unattainable, similar to 2022” in a presentation earlier this month.
The United presentation described the inflated flight cancellations as “evidence of real-world constraints to growth.”
Worldwide air passenger numbers have fallen by 60% between 2019 and 2020 as COVID-19 spreads around the world, wreaking havoc on commercial air travel.
ICAO has estimated that the drop in demand has cost global airlines $372 billion in 2020 and another $324 billion in 2021.
But ICAO’s latest outlook says airlines are expected to be profitable again in the final quarter of 2023 after three consecutive years of losses.
© 2023 AFP
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