DNIPROPETRIVSK AREA, Ukraine – After Ukraine’s horror offensive in the northeast sent Russian forces into a chaotic retreat and reshaped the battlefield hundreds of miles away, Ukraine’s leaders on Monday were pondering the options available to them. important silver that can determine the short-term course of the war.
Stretching Ukrainian forces – a military still smaller and far less equipped than its Russian rival – too far could leave the army vulnerable to attack. Moving too slowly or in the wrong place can result in wasted opportunities. And waiting too long could freeze the front lines as winter sets in.
By expelling Russian troops from a large part of strategic territory in the northeastern Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces are now positioned to make a move on the Donbas, the industrialized eastern territory that the President Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, is the focus of his battle. . Just before sending troops across the border in February, Putin declared Donbas independence from Ukraine and he considered the region’s sovereignty as a good reason for the invasion.
Russia now controls almost 90% of Donbas, where its army change much of its focus follows a stunning defeat in the capital Kyiv in the spring. If Ukraine recaptures even part of the region, it will be a shameful blow to the Kremlin.
On Monday, the Ukrainian military announced it had entered 20 more Ukrainian towns and villages in the Russian-controlled Kharkiv region, adding to the hundreds of square miles it has recaptured in the northeast. It also said it had recaptured nearly 200 square miles in the area south of Kherson in recent days, as its forces attempted to cut off thousands of Russian forces stationed west of the Dnipro River.
The military’s assertions cannot be independently verified, but Western analysts, including the Pentagon, say that Ukraine has generally gained rapid gains as Russian forces have backed down. .
But Ukraine faces potentially serious pitfalls if it pushes any further.
Any future advance will mean Ukrainian forces will further widen their supply lines, straining fuel, ammunition and reinforcement convoys as they move. away from its established logistics centers.
That could leave Ukrainian units vulnerable to attack, said John Blaxland, a professor of intelligence and security studies at the Australian National University in Canberra. Although he added that a Russian counterattack “is not necessarily going to happen”, partly because of the morale of Moscow’s military. seems to have been established.
Russian officials face conundrums of their own, especially with the increase backlash to their “special military operation” from pro-war voices at home. Analysts say that Russia’s military leaders will have to see the reality of the current condition of their forces – exhausted and demoralized in some areas – to determine see how many of Moscow’s goals they can accomplish in the coming months, if any.
Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a think tank in Arlington, Va, said Ukraine’s current offensive “is a rapid breakthrough designed to take advantage of advantageous positions and Russia’s thin defense force”.
With Ukraine’s current development momentum, recent winning streak around the country’s second largest cityKharkiv, means that Ukrainian troops are positioned to move further east – before Russian forces can retreat to new front lines.
“Ukraine now has options to exploit the momentum” in Donbas, said Kofman. Russian forces “will be on the defensive for the foreseeable future,” he added.
Kofman said that Russia’s withdrawal from Kharkiv and Izium, a railway hub, has given Ukrainians “the ability to move quickly” to other parts of the country. He also noted that the Ukrainian military has the advantage of manpower and the ability to conduct “operations along multiple axes”, referring to a separate offensive is taking place in the south of Ukrainenear the port city of Kherson.
Analysts say Ukraine’s ability to rally troops to strike in two directions is a remarkable feat. According to Western intelligence estimates, both Ukraine and Russia have suffered tens of thousands of casualties, and both countries rely on an intermediary of different units to reinforce their numbers on the front.
Along the newly formed Ukrainian front in the Kharkiv region, the Ukrainian military must not only prepare for future advances, but also strengthen their own interests.
Securing territory is a resource-intensive challenge in its own right. In recaptured towns and villages, Ukrainian units must scour explosives, including inside abandoned Russian devices, and look for potential saboteurs. When those tasks are completed, emergency services such as police and bomb disposal squads can arrive.
The Russian military appears to have left behind a large amount of equipment just as they did in their hasty retreat from Kyiv. One soldier familiar with the battle said that one unit that took part in the assault around Kharkiv was known to have captured so much Russian equipment, including tanks and ammunition, that other units are looking to use it to resupply themselves.
Russian hardware captured very useful for Ukraine. Any Russian functional vehicles captured in the recent attack will likely be sent to the front within weeks, if not days, to replace Ukraine’s dilapidated Soviet-era matériels.
“Russian forces have given up a lot of equipment,” Kofman said, adding that “problems of manpower and readiness” only added to Russia’s woes.
But Ukraine’s window of opportunity to capitalize on Russia’s morale decline and retreat is rapidly closing.
With each passing day, Russian forces had time to dig deep and gather reinforcements, draw new lines of defense, and prepare to return. status quo lasts for months of a crushing artillery battleground. Pro-Russian social media accounts have posted pictures of pro-Russian and pro-Kremlin Chechen forces assembling to deploy in Ukraine or head to the front.
Russia retains its edge in weapons and supplies, and Putin throughout the war showed no signs of stopping attacking his army. Last week he emphasize Russia has “lost nothing, and will lose nothing”, denying its country’s casualties up to that point.
Around Lyman, a small city in the Donbas, entrenched Russian forces appear to have fought back against recent Ukrainian attacks. Farther southeast, near the village of Pisky, the Ukrainian attacks also appear to have gained little traction, according to pro-Russian social media accounts. The Ukrainian-held city of Bakhmut, also in the Donbas, is under intense shelling, including in the city centre.
Terrain such as rivers and forests further hindered Ukraine’s advances. Near Izium, Russian forces retreated across the Oskil River, which flows north to south and joins the Siversky Donets River, which flows southeast into the Donbas.
Both rivers are used by the Russian military as a natural line of defense, ensuring that Ukrainian forces can be easily targeted as they attempt to cross a limited number of bridges.
The two rivers, by their troops attempting to cross, have been used by both Ukraine and Russia to inflict damage – as the Oskil was used in 1942, when Soviet snipers and artillerymen were in the area. east slows the Nazi advance towards Moscow.
With Russia’s Kharkiv defenses destroyed and its troops redeployed elsewhere, Russia’s last remaining front lines remain – those in the Donbas and south, analysts say. Ukraine – will likely be the site of the rest of the fierce ground fighting.
But on Sunday night, Moscow showed its willingness to punish Ukraine for its military successes by appeared to launch cruise missiles at power plants and their substations in the east of the country.
A not-so-subtle reminder: Even if the battle is lost, the war is far from over.
Report contributed by Natalia Yermak from Dnipropetrivsk, Michael Schwirtz and Alan Yuhas from New York, and Matthew Mpoke Bigg from London.
