KYIV, Ukraine – For months, Russian and Ukrainian troops have waged a brutal war on a 1,500-mile front line, inflicting casualties, fighting to the point of exhaustion and slowly gaining territory when they were spared the brunt of the war. costly failure.
Now, after the war began with Russia taking part of southern Ukraine and a failed offensive in the capital Kyiv, and then revolved around a bloody artillery battle in the east of the country, the war is on. into the third chapter: a stalemate battlefield, with hostilities simmering, and anxiety over whether – and when – Ukraine will launch a counter-offensive to try to break the stalemate.
The timing for any such attack has become an important strategic decision for the Ukrainian government. Both sides are bracing for a protracted war, but Ukraine has a greater incentive to try to avoid it with potentially risky maneuvers as early as this fall – before the rainy season turns the region around. rural areas into an insurmountable quagmire, or energy shortages and rising costs undermine European support.
“An attack is risky,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, an institute in Arlington, Va., that evaluates Ukraine’s options.
“If that fails, the outcome could affect outside support,” he said. “On the other hand, Kyiv could see this as a window of opportunity, alongside the uncertainty of a protracted war against the time-entrenched Russian army.”
From Ukraine’s point of view, the fighting is essentially static trenches that cannot go on indefinitely. Giving Russia control of much of the south coast would cripple Ukraine’s economy, which has weathered the war and is supported by Western aid. It would also give Russia space to consolidate control in the areas it has taken over, wiping out news media and school curricula. with its propagandacapture or drive out opponents, and potentially claim parts of Russia after holding fake referendums.
President Vladimir V. Putin is also facing some political pressure to secure a breakthrough on the battlefield – especially in the wake of Ukraine’s attacks on the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula, and the incident. car bomb. kill an extremist commentator last weekend. The attacks have called for revenge by Russia’s pro-war hawks.
But there are indications that Mr. Putin will ignore those calls and instead deal with an offensive strategy designed to exhaust and destroy Ukrainian forces. The latest evidence came on Thursday, when the Kremlin announced Mr. Putin’s order increase the target size of the armed forces increased by 137,000 to 1.15 million.
Analysts said the decree hinted that Putin was preparing for a long and tough fight, but not necessarily a large-scale draft that would mark a major escalation and could cause caused a backlash in the country.
Ruslan Pukhov, a defense analyst who runs the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a privately owned private organization in Moscow, said “expect this to be over by Christmas or will be over. next spring.” “I think this is going to last a very long time.”
Ukraine was bolstered this week by the promise of a $3 billion military aid package from the United States. Biden administration officials say the aid is like a message to Putin that the United States will be involved in this for a long time, as well as to Ukraine that the United States will continue to try to keep the NATO alliance. support Kyiv indefinitely.
Administration officials stressed that President Biden is committed to helping Ukraine win, even in a war of attrition, if that happens. Colin H. Kahl, under Secretary of Defense for Policy, said at a press conference this week that Putin’s suggestion that he can “win the long game” was “another miscalculation. of Russia”.
In Russian state media, the message that Russia may be just starting a long and existential war against the West – currently waged, under proxy, in Ukraine – is increasingly evident. clear. It is a drastic change from six months ago, when Ukrainians were described as lacking the will to fight and eagerly awaiting Russia’s “liberation”.
Igor Korotchenko, editor of a Russian military magazine, said on a state TV talk show: “We will have fewer Russian tourists than in Europe, but the size of the Russian army will 140,000 more regular soldiers. “I hope this is just the beginning.”
While Mr. Putin may be content with a protracted stalemate, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine is in some ways against the clock.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former Defense Minister, wrote in the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper: “The very difficult state of our economy, the constant risks of missile and air attacks and general fatigue of the people because of the difficulties of war”. newspapers. He said the military should be prepared to advance, rather than defend.
“There is no point in prolonging the war for years and competing to see who will run out of resources first,” he wrote.
Western officials said that staged elections to justify the merger could take place as early as next month, adding time pressure on Mr. attack.
However, some military analysts say there is a loss of communication between Ukraine’s civilian leaders, which is pushing for a major victory, and that the military leaders want to make sure they have enough numbers and strength. Fight hard before launching a massive attack.
“There is a desire to show international partners that their support will help Ukraine win,” said Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal Institute of Joint Services in London, recently returning from Ukraine. win, not just keep.” “And there is an expectation from the Ukrainian people that they will be able to liberate their territory.”
But he warned, “a military attack should be based on conditions on the battlefield,” not on the political scene.
In the last month, the Ukrainians have switched to a new strategy of so-called “deep warfare” – hitting targets far behind – after months of intense artillery fire and street fighting in the southern region. eastern Luhansk, which eventually went to Russia. control in early July.
Using long-range, precision-guided missiles supplied by the United States and other countries, the Ukrainian military has attacked Russian arsenals, bases, command centers, and military posts deep into the interior of the country. occupied territory, including Crimea, the peninsula that Putin seized in 2014.
Ukraine has for months been planning to telegraph a major battle in the south; The weapons they demanded from their Western allies and the tactics they pursued on the battlefield provided clues to their strategy.
Notably, a recent package of US military assistance includes armored vehicles with demining accessories to be used in a ground attack, suggesting preparations for the opening of beginning of the new ground attack phase of the war. Ukraine repelled chaotic Russian forces in the battle for Kyiv last winter, but has yet to prove that it can break through the fortified Russian defenses.
For Mr. Putin, even the loss of some territory as a result of a counterattack would represent a great deal of embarrassment, partly due to the way he has framed it: Ukraine, he claimed. wrong, is carrying out a “genocide” against Russian speakers. . Russia has failed to capture a major population center since early July, discouraging the war’s most fervent supporters.
The Russian leader, who controls state media and the political system, is now well-qualified to ignore any criticism, analysts say.
Instead, Putin insisted that his forces were advancing “step by step” in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.
A senior Biden official hit back at that story on Friday, describing Russia’s advance in the Donbas as so slow that “a good day for them is if they advance 500 meters”.
While conventional wisdom is that the aggravation of war would benefit Russia, it also presents risks for Putin, causing more damage to his economy and making many Western weapons less likely. suffered: Despite the emergence of artillery systems from NATO member states, Ukraine’s arsenal is still largely made up of Soviet-era weapons.
In his home country of Ukraine, Mr. Zelensky has broad support for continuing the war. A poll by the Razumkov Center, a policy research organization in Kyiv, released on Monday found that 92% of Ukrainians believe in a military victory.
With the decision of an imminent attack to the south, Zelensky worked hard to show unity with his generals. At a press conference this week, he praised the commander, General Valeriy Zaluzhny, and denied rumors that he intends to remove the general.
“We work as a team,” Mr. Zelensky said. When asked to rate the champion’s performance, he said, “The most important assessment is that we are holding up. That means appreciation. When we win, that will be the highest appreciation.”
Andrew E. Kramer reported from Kyiv, Anton Troianovski from Berlin and Helene Cooper from Washington. Report contributed by Eric Schmitt from Washington and Oleksandr Chubko from Kyiv.
