“It’s been more than two years now COVID-19 The pandemic continues to negatively impact our lives, health and economy,” speakFAO Chief QU Dongyu.
Explaining that those most in need “face the pandemic more and are most affected by rising food and fuel prices,” he pointed out that the prices of staples like wheat and vegetable oils have risen. , “imposed extraordinary costs on global consumers, especially low-income”.
Consequences of war
The conflict has raised the international prices of wheat, corn and vegetable oils, due to the war in the Black Sea region spread the shock through markets that trade these staples.
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 159.3 points in March, up 12.6% compared to February when it reached its highest level since its inception in 1990.
The index tracks monthly changes in the prices of a basket of commonly traded food commodities. Last month’s prices were 33.6% higher overall, compared with March last year.
Driven by soaring prices of wheat and coarse grains – largely a result of the war in Ukraine – FAO The Grain Price Index was 17.1% higher in March than just a month earlier.
Over the past three years, Russia and Ukraine combined, account for about 30% and 20% of global corn and wheat exports, respectively.
Reduced harvest
Newly released FAO Summary of grain supply and demand estimated that at least 20% of Ukraine’s winter crops have been planted, possibly not harvested.
However, it also points to worldwide cereal production at 2.799 million tonnes, up slightly from 2020, with Rice production reached all-time high is 520.3 million tons.
And global cereal use in 2021-22 is forecast to reach 2.789 million tonnes, including a record for rice, with increases also expected for corn and wheat.
Global cereal stocks are forecast to increase by 2.4% by the end of the year, compared with opening levels, largely due to higher wheat and corn stocks in Russia and Ukraine, due to expected low exports. than.
FAO has lowered its world cereal trade forecast for the current marketing year to 469 million tonnes, marking a decline from 2020-21 levels, largely due to the war in Ukraine and based on currently available information.
Expectations suggest that the European Union and India will increase wheat exports, while ships from Argentina, India and the United States are likely to ship more corn – partially offsetting the loss of exports. from the Black Sea region.
© IFAD / Joanne Levitan
To prevent overgrazing on the land, shepherds in Tajikistan follow a pasture rotation scheme.
Oil and sugar
FAO Vegetable oil price index increased by 23.2%boosted by higher sunflower seed oil prices, of which Ukraine is the world’s top exporter.
Prices of palm, soybean and rapeseed oil also increased markedly due to higher sunflower seed oil prices and higher crude oil prices – with soybean oil prices continuing to be underpinned by concerns about falling South American exports.
FAO’s Sugar price index increased by 6.7% compared to Februaryreverses recent decline to hit 20% higher than March 2021.
Higher crude oil prices were a driving factor, along with the currency appreciation of the Brazilian Real, while a favorable production outlook in India prevented a larger monthly price increase.
Meat and milk
Meanwhile, rising pork prices linked to shortages of animals for slaughter in Western Europe, prompting FAO Meat Price Index increased by 4.8% in March to hit an all-time high.
International poultry prices also stabilized as supplies fell from leading exporting countries following the outbreak of avian influenza.
In the context of a sudden increase in import demand for near and long-term delivery, especially from Asian markets, Butter and milk powder quotes surged, sending the FAO Dairy Price Index up 2.6%23.6% higher than March 2021.
