“The eastern countries are not fans of EU defense – they want the US and NATO,” Ms. Puglierin said. Germany also wants to strengthen its transatlantic relationship and depend on Washington, even as it tries to rebuild its diminutive military. “So France will lose some allies and be outnumbered,” she said.
Weakened in Europe, at least for now, France would also have less influence in a more aggressive and aggressive NATO. This alliance relies more on American weapons and leadership than it did before the war, not less, and it is expected to expand soon with new member of Sweden and Finland.
Germany new governmentScholz, was not prepared for war, let alone Russia abruptly cut off energy and trade. With growing concerns about a similar dependence on China, Germany faces the need to reshape an export-oriented economy, built on cheap Russian gas and free trade. due to China.
In the long run, “the prospect of a bigger and more populous Europe will be a source of great strength for the German economy,” said Garton Ash, of which Ukraine represents enormous growth potential.
However, at least France and Germany are in a weak position in Europe for the foreseeable future.
Luuk van Middelaar, a historian of the European Union, notes that since the war began, both Poland and Hungary have been treated more lightly by Brussels in their ongoing struggle with them. on the basis of the law. “Political and morally, Poland is struggling because of its role as a frontline state, supplying weapons and receiving refugees,” he said.
“Poland’s new importance to NATO also makes it more important to” the European Union, said Wojciech Przybylski of Res Publica, a Warsaw-based think tank. “The amount of new equipment purchases and defense upgrades makes you talk when it comes to peace and security.”
Central and Eastern Europe, he said, “bring a lot of attitude, even if the quality remains in the hands of the bigger players.” The war, he added, “confirmed the fact that Europe could no longer be ruled by Paris and Berlin.”
