PHNOM PENH, Cambodia – Just a few hours later five Chinese rockets Exploding into the Sea of Japan near Taiwan, the foreign ministers of China and Japan found themselves uncomfortably close together, in the banquet hall on Thursday night at the Association of Nations meeting. Southeast Asia.
Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, greeted reporters before entering the room, staying for three minutes, then walking out of his convoy. He canceled plans for a bilateral meeting with his Japanese counterpart in the Cambodian capital after Japan signed off on a Group of Seven statement expressing concern about Beijing’s “threatening actions”. . But the prospect of a normal exchange may even be overwhelming; Witnesses said Mr. Wang left and did not return.
Across Asia, it is seen as another sign of the more volatile and dangerous environment that has emerged since the visit Taiwan This week by Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi.
The Chinese military’s retaliatory drills continued on Friday around the democratic, democratic island that China claims as its own. American officials once again tried to show they would not be intimidated by China, rallying other countries to denounce their actions, while seeking to de-escalate. With both powers claiming that their efforts regarding Taiwan are reasonable and justifiable, the conflict points to an increased risk of a broader conflict that could involve many states and locations at sea and in the air.
The United States intends to heavily equip Taiwan, provide Australia with nuclear submarine propulsion technology and may place more missiles in the region, as many analysts and officials fear that China’s growing military might will make armed actions more widespread and diverse. Performances like this week offer a hint of how far Beijing is willing to go in a region of the world of immense economic importance that is becoming more militarized and experiencing much criticism. calling for closer to deadly weapons.
“We are entering a period where China is more capable and capable of using force to protect its interests,” said Bonny Lin, China Power Project Manager at the Center. especially the interests that they consider as core and non-negotiable like Taiwan.” Strategic and International Studies. At the same time, Beijing has signaled to Taiwan, Japan and others, she added, that it is more willing to escalate against US allies than against the United States itself.
If the ultimate goal is to sideline the United States in Asia, as many believe, China seems to think that scaring or drawing other nations away from its relationship America would be more effective than a direct challenge. Even before Ms. Pelosi’s trip, China had begun pushing the boundaries of acceptable military behavior, especially with US allies.
In May, the Chinese plane intercepting an Australian maritime surveillance flight over international airspace over the South China Sea, fired flares, cut it across its nose and dropped a bunch of rags into the engine of an Australian jet. US and Australian defense officials called the rotation an extremely dangerous maneuver.
That same month, China and Russia conduct joint exercises over the waters of Northeast Asia while President Biden was visiting the region, and Chinese jets rocked Canadian planes deployed in Japan, forcing pilots to maneuver to avoid collisions. touch.
Actions around Taiwan go even further – with Chinese missiles being fired into waters within Japan’s exclusive economic zone for the first time, and with missiles firing over Taiwan. Together, the moves to build up power carry what many in the region see as a two-way message from China’s leaders: You are vulnerable and China will not be deterred by the United States. heart.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken sought to counter that argument Friday in a speech to his Southeast Asian counterparts in Cambodia.
Blinken, speaking after Wang, emphasized to the group that Beijing had sought to threaten not only Taiwan but also neighboring countries, according to a Western official in attendance. Calling the Chinese government’s response to Ms. Pelosi’s peace visit clearly provocative, he referred to the Chinese missile landing near Japan and asked: “How would you feel if this happened? out with you?”
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At an afternoon press conference, Mr. Blinken said, “We will engage with our allies and partners, and work with and through regional organizations to enable friends in the region to make their own decisions without being coerced.”
There is some evidence of that. Senior US officials have traveled to Asia more often this year, digging into details of expanded partnerships such as privacy treaty named AUKUS with Australia and the UK, and announced that new embassies would be opened in several Pacific island countries.
But doubts about America’s resolve remain pervasive in Asia. The backlash against free trade by many U.S. voters has made both Republican and Democratic leaders reluctant to push for any ambitious trade deal in the region, despite the demand for it. from Asian countries. It is a glaring omission as China’s economic influence grows.
Some analysts in Washington say that recent US administrations have “Excessive militarization” China problem because they lack bold economic plans.
Others see stagnation and lack of creativity with American diplomatic ideas and military adaptation. Sam Roggeveen, director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute, an Australian think-tank, notes that while China’s rise is increasing, the US military structure in the region is fundamentally remained unchanged since the end of the Cold War.
“The whole security order in Asia was turned upside down during that time, but the US military presence was unchanged,” he said. “Given all that has happened, their friends and allies in the region are quite worried about the erosion of American deterrence.”
The apparent contradiction in Washington over Ms. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan – with top White House security advisers suggesting she stay away from Taipei this month – seems to only confirm that not even the US sure of your place. And after four years of President Donald J. Trump, the possibility of another American president pulling out of Asia is never far off the minds of regional leaders.
They know what China wants: governing Taiwan and other countries does not stand aside from what Beijing insists is its internal business. And for many countries in Southeast Asia, that seems easier to accommodate than what the United States might ask for, like stationing troops, granting naval access, or placing long-range missiles on its territory. surname.
“The number one consideration is how to respond to China and how to approach it,” said Oriana Skyler Mastro, a fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies who focuses on China’s security policy. close to the United States. “They don’t want to lean too forward and find themselves too far ahead.”
Indonesia, which is forecast to have the world’s fourth-largest economy around 2030, is a country that can play a larger role in shaping regional relations, but it has yet to appear as important. much concerned with stepping out of their non-aligned position.
Vietnam is a nagging conundrum for Americans: American officials are well aware of their long history with China, exacerbated by continued territorial disputes in the South China Sea, because So this country can be a natural partner. But the ruling Communist Party maintains close ties with its counterpart in Beijing, and some American officials say they recognize that Vietnam’s leaders want to cross the line with both superpowers.
Cambodia presents another difficult problem. China’s economic influence is felt throughout the country, and Cambodian leaders recently agreed to let China expansion and upgrade a naval base, which alarmed Washington.
“There’s a combination of what the United States is going to do, how America’s policy is over time, and how strong China is — there’s all these things they’re trying to consider,” Mastro said. He is also a member of the American Enterprise Institute. “And can they stay away from it?”
Many Asian nations seem to be betting that a stronger military will help by increasing their deterrence. Follow research from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Even combined, those gains are not enough to compare the Chinese dollar to the dollar. Beijing increased military spending by 4.7% to $293 billion, less than the $801 billion the United States spent, but up 72% from its spending a decade ago.
That trend will continue to cause anxiety not only in Washington, but also among America’s closest allies in the region, Australia, South Korea and Japan – and in many countries that have tried not to pick one. beside.
Edward Wong reported from Phnom Penh, and Hang Damien from Sydney, Australia. Ben Dooley contributed reporting from Tokyo.
