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U.S. Aims to Turn Taiwan Into Giant Weapons Depot


WASHINGTON – US officials are stepping up efforts to build a huge arsenal in Taiwan after recent research naval and air force exercises of Chinese troops around the island, according to current and former officials.

The exercises show that China is likely to blockade the island as a prelude to any try to invadeand Taiwan will have to hold out on its own until the United States or other countries intervene, if it decides to do so, current and former officials said.

But the effort to turn Taiwan into an arsenal faces many challenges. The United States and its allies have prioritized send weapons to Ukrainethis is reducing the stockpiles of those countries, and arms manufacturers are reluctant to open new production lines without a steady stream of long-term orders.

And it’s unclear how China might respond if the United States speeds up arms shipments to Taiwan, a democratic, self-governing island that Beijing claims as Chinese territory.

US officials are determining the amount and type of arms sales to Taiwan by quietly telling Taiwanese officials and US arms manufacturers that they will refuse orders for certain systems large system to favor a smaller, more mobile number of weapons. The Biden administration announced on September 2 that it has approved Sixth Arms Package for Taiwan – a $1.1 billion acquisition that includes 60 Harpoon coastal anti-ship missiles. American officials are also discussing how to streamline the sales and delivery process.

President Biden said last month that the United States is “discouraging” Taiwan’s independence, adding, “It is their decision.” Since 1979, Washington has had a policy of reassuring Beijing that it is not in favor of independence. But the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, said in a speech at Asia Society last month that the United States had undermined that position “by repeating official exchanges and arms sales, including many offensive weapons.”

The People’s Liberation Army exercised in August with naval ships and fighter aircraft in areas near Taiwan. It also fired ballistic missiles into the waters off Taiwan, four of which passed over the island, according to Japan.

The Chinese military took action after Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House of Representatives, visited Taiwan. But even before that, U.S. and Taiwanese officials more closely examined the possibility of an invasion because Russia’s attack on Ukraine did. ability seems more real, even though the Chinese leaders did not specify a timeline to establish rule over Taiwan.

The United States will not be able to resupply Taiwan as easily as Ukraine because of the lack of overland routes from neighboring countries. The goal now is to ensure that Taiwan has enough weapons to defend itself until help arrives, officials said. Last month, Mr. Biden said that the US military would defend Taiwan if China made an “unprecedented attack” on the island – the fourth time he has. declare that committed and the shift from preference for “strategic ambiguity” to Taiwan among US presidents.

Jacob Stokes, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security who advised Biden on Asia policy while he was vice president, said: “Reserves in Taiwan are a very active point of discussion. pole. “And if you have it, how do you harden it and how do you disperse it so the Chinese missiles can’t destroy it?”

He added: “The point is that we need to prolong the time Taiwan can hold out on its own. “That’s how you avoid letting China get low on the ‘fait trick’ – that they won the day before we get there, that’s assuming we intervene.”

U.S. officials increasingly stress Taiwan’s need for smaller, maneuverable weapons that can kill Chinese warships and jets while being able to evade attacks. which is at the heart of so-called asymmetric warfare.

Popular “fire-and-shoot” weapons in the Ukrainian army, used shoulder-fired Javelin and NLAW . anti-tank guided missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles against Russian forces effectively. Recently, Ukrainians have defeat the Russian army with US-made mobile rocket launchers called HIMARS.

To turn Taiwan into a “hedgehog,” an entity with very expensive weapons to attack, American officials tried to directing the Taiwanese partners towards ordering more weapons and fewer systems for a conventional ground war like the M1 Abrams tank.

Pentagon and State Department officials have also spoken regularly on these issues since March with American arms companies, including at an industry conference on Taiwan this week in Richmond. , Va. Jedidiah Royal, a defense ministry official, said in a statement there that the Pentagon helped Taiwan build systems to “defend the island against an aggressor by conventional overwhelming means.” “.

In a recent article, James Timbie, a former State Department official, and James O. Ellis Jr., a retired U.S. Navy admiral, said Taiwan needs “a large number of small things” for distributed defense , and some recent Taiwanese purchases from the United States. , including the Harpoon and Stinger missiles, fit that bill. Taiwan also produces its own deterrent weapons, including minesweepers, anti-aircraft missile systems, and anti-ship cruise missiles.

They say Taiwan needs to shift resources away from “expensive, highly configurable conventional systems” that China can easily destroy in an initial attack, although some of those systems, in particular is an F-16 jet, which is very useful against China’s ongoing warplanes and warships. activities in the airspace and waters of the “gray zone”. The authors also write that “effective defense of Taiwan” will require stockpiling ammunition, fuel and other supplies, as well as strategic food and energy reserves.

Officials in the management of Tsai Ing-wenTaiwan’s president said it recognized the need to stockpile smaller weapons but pointed out that there were significant delays between orders and shipments.

“I think we are reaching a high consensus on our priorities for the asymmetric strategy, but the real pace needs to be accelerated,” said Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan’s ambassador to the United States. reality in Washington, said in an interview. .

Some US lawmakers have called for faster and stronger deliveries. Several senior senators are trying to pass the proposal Taiwan Policy Actwill provide $6.5 billion in security assistance to Taiwan over the next four years and mandate to treat the island as if it were a “primary non-NATO ally.”

But Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said in an interview that arms manufacturers want to see predictability in orders before committing to building production. Weapons directors from the US and more than 40 other countries see you last week in Brussels to discuss long-term production and supply issues.

If China decides to establish a naval blockade around Taiwan, US officials will likely explore ways to supply Taiwan – by sea or by air – that will be less likely to send ships. , Chinese and American aircraft and submarines into the most direct conflict.

One proposal would involve sending US cargo planes with supplies from bases in Japan and Guam to Taiwan’s east coast. That way, any Chinese fighters trying to shoot them down would have to fly over Taiwan and risk being shot down by Taiwanese fighters.

Eric Wertheim, a defense consultant and author of “The Naval Institute’s Guide to Combat Fleets,” says: “Absolute amounts of material will likely be needed in the event of a world war. “The question is: how much risk are China and the White House willing to take in terms of enforcing or breaking a blockade, and can it be sustained?”

China has probably studied the strategic failure of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said, and the United States should continue to send weapons to Taiwan that would trigger an amphibious invasion or an armed attack. Long-range becomes much more difficult for China. .

“The Chinese naval officers I have spoken to over the years have all said that they fear the humiliation that could result from any kind of failure, and this of course makes them less likely to act. be more active if there is an increased risk. failed,” Mr. Wertheim said. “In essence, the success the Ukrainians are having is a message to the Chinese.”

Officials in the Biden administration are trying to gauge what moves will deter China without actually provoking larger military actions.

Jessica Chen Weiss, a government professor at Cornell University who has worked on China’s Policy last year at the State Department, wrote on Twitter Biden’s recent statements pledging the US military to defend Taiwan were “dangerous.” She said in an interview that pursuing a hedgehog strategy enhances deterrence, but that does what she considers symbolic steps of Taiwan’s diplomatic status do not do.

“The US must make it clear that it has no strategic interest in Taiwan being permanently separated from mainland China,” she said.

But other former US officials praised Mr Biden’s strong statements, saying that “strategic clarity” strengthens deterrence.

“President Biden has said four times that we will defend Taiwan, but every time he speaks, someone backs down,” said Harry B. Harris Jr., a retired admiral who served as commander of the Department of Defense US Pacific Command and ambassador to South Korea. . “And I think that makes us as a country look weak because who is running this program? I mean, is it the president or his advisers?

“So maybe we should listen to him,” Admiral Harris added. “Perhaps he is very serious about defending Taiwan.”

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