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Two Trump Scenarios – The New York Times


Perhaps the central question about FBI raids Donald Trump’s Florida home whether it’s a relatively narrow attempt to recover classified documents – or more.

Both scenarios make sense at this point. The Ministry of Justice has has long been aggressive about investigating former officials they suspect of improperly handling classified material, including Hillary Clinton and David Petraeus. If the FBI’s search merely leads to a legal argument over what’s classified, it probably won’t hurt Trump’s political future.

But it seems the search was a sign of a new legal problem for him. People familiar with the search told The Times that it’s not relevant for the Justice Department’s investigation into the January 6 attacks and Trump’s role in it. And it’s unlikely Merrick Garland, the attorney general, will allow a search warrant to be requested — or a federal judge will approve it, upon request — unless it involves something substantial.

“I don’t think you can get a judge to sign a warrant to search the former president’s home lightly,” said Charlie Savage, a Times reporter who has covered legal matters since the administration. George W. Bush, said. “I think the world looks quite different today than it did 48 hours ago.” (There’s even a possibility that Trump could be prosecuted just for the classified documents, though that may not keep him in office again.)

As Charlie emphasizes, there are still more unknowns about the search than is known. That probably won’t change until the Justice Department gets closer to making a decision on how to end its investigation. Garland recently said: “A central tenet of the way the Justice Department investigates and a central tenet of the rule of law is that we do not conduct our investigations in public.

But at least two major points seem clear. First, although Garland has said that no one is above the law, the Justice Department will not treat Trump like any other citizen. Thanh’s charge against him would be higher, since he is a former president who could run for re-election – against the current president.

“The considerations when you talk about a political leader are certainly different and harder,” said Andrew Goldstein, a former federal prosecutor who investigated Trump’s ties to Russia. recently told The Times. “You have a very clear and important rule that the Justice Department should try in every way possible not to interfere in elections, not to take steps that use criminal process that could ultimately affect influence the political process.”

However, some legal experts have previously criticized Garland for acting too timidly in investigating Trump, saying they were encouraged by recent signs of boldness by the Justice Department, including the Search Mar-a-Lago. Andrew Weissmann, another former prosecutor who previously investigated Trump, is one of those experts (as he explains in this New Yorker interview). Quinta Jurecic, a senior editor at Lawfare, is another. “At what point does not by itself investigating and not prosecuting a former president indicate that the rule of law is being undermined because it signals that this person is above the law?” Jurecic told us.

She added: “That doesn’t mean this should translate into an indictment of the president.”

The second point is that Trump seems to be a subject of many criminal investigations – and prosecutors may decide that his violation of the law is so serious that it deserves prosecution. One of those investigations is by Georgia state prosecutors, who might not be as cautious about charging a former president as Garland seems.

Either way, the answer is likely to become clear by November 2024. Prosecutors – especially at the Justice Department – often try to avoid making announcements about investigations into criminal cases. political candidate in the election campaign. (James Comey’s decision to break with that tradition and announce he reopened the Clinton investigation at the end of the 2016 campaign is a notable exception, and many experts believe it. he was wrong to do so.)

The remainder of today’s newsletter summarizes the Times’ latest reports on the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago raid – while giving you a quick overview of the many investigations Trump is facing. face to face.

  • Before the raid, Justice Department officials had become concerned that Trump had keep some documentsthough return someone else.

  • If convicted, could Trump be barred from holding office? Relevant law untested.

  • The Justice Department did not notify the White House in advance of the search, Biden’s press secretary said.

  • Representative Scott Perry, a Pennsylvania Republican who pushed to overturn Trump’s loss, said the FBI had seized his cell phone.

  • Prosecutors in Georgia are investigating efforts by Trump and his allies to overturn his 2020 election defeat there, including a phone call in which Trump asked an election official vote “find” additional votes. Annie Karni of The Times explain possible fees.

  • The Justice Department is also questioning witnesses before a grand jury about Trump’s efforts to reverse his election defeat. And federal prosecutors are looking into his allies’ plans to send fake electors from key states to circumvent Biden’s certification of victory.

  • Trump faces a number of other investigations, some of which could lead to civil but not criminal penalties. The main exception is the criminal investigation of his business practices by the Manhattan district attorney, but that seems to have been cleared up.

  • Trump will face the oath today by the New York attorney general’s office, which is investigating his business practices.

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It is a the choice that all LGBTQ museums must make, writes Tom Faber in The Times. Berlin’s Schwules Museum, opened in 1985, is openly political; Its latest exhibits address biases in the museum’s own history. The British queer has opted for a more orthodox approach, highlighting artifacts from history – such as notes from the first parliamentary meeting on AIDS – and notable Britons such as Ian McKellen, Elton John and Virginia Woolf.



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