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Treasury curve continues to invert below zero after Fed Bullard gives 5%-7% estimate for federal funds rate
The spread between 2-
TMUBMUSD02Y,
and 10-year Treasury bond yield
TMUBMUSD10Y,
reversed deeper on Thursday, falling to just minus 70.5 basis points, after a Federal Reserve policymaker gave an estimate of where interest rates he thought might be needed. get a raise. After Fed President St. Louis James Bullard puts it in a range of 5% to 7%, the 2s10s spread has dipped below zero and is still on track for the deepest reversal in more than 40 years. The last time the spread fell deep below zero was in February 1982, a month after then-Fed President Paul Volcker pushed the federal funds rate to 15%. Investors pay attention to bond market reversals because they are seen as reliable indicators of an impending recession.
