EXPERT TEST – MI5 General Manager, Ken McCallum’s, general address over 6order July with the FBI Director saw a welcome rebalancing of the Security Service’s focus on nation-state threats. Combating Terrorism is an important function but it has been allowed to dominate for two decades while Russia, China and a number of other belligerent states are not adequately monitored.
The 9/11 attacks were so great that it blew up Western foreign policy for two decades. The impact of 9/11 stems not only from the large number of deaths (almost 10 times as many as the next largest terrorist attack) but also because it is seen as a particularly dangerous new form of Islamic terrorism. Extraordinary TV footage, both gripping and horrifying, coupled with iconic goals creates a terrifying prospect in a league of its own.
Until 9/11, the world viewed terrorism as a crime or poverty, something we aspire to eradicate but will likely have to endure and manage forever. The main factors that distinguish terrorism from crime are political motives, intent to kill and dispose of bodies, and often a secret foreign hand behind the terrorists. That’s why security services around the world are at the forefront of counter-terrorism (CT) with a police force behind them.
We tend to forget that the spectacular terrorist attacks did not begin with 9/11. Prior to 2001, there were two unusual decades from the early 1970s onwards, which saw a number of big attacks each year. For example, the explosion in September 1970, of four transport planes in Jordan by Palestinians the terroristskidnapping in December 1975, 60 officials at an OPEC conference in Vienna by terrorism known as Carlos the Jackal and the downing of an Air India Boeing 747 over the Atlantic Ocean in June 1985, by Sikhs extremists killing 329 people.
Some of the most famous attacks are carried out by the Abu Nidhal Organization (ANO) and other Palestinian groups. There are also Sikh and Latin American organizations, the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA), the German Baader Meinhof gang, and the Japanese Red Army. Attacks in the 1970s and 80s made headlines and primetime, but only for a few days at a time. The exception is destruction of a Pan Am plane flying over Lockerbie in December 1988, the plane overcame an invisible barrier to become a recurring news item for several years.
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Behind these organizations, we sometimes come across images of nations. In many cases it is Iran, Syria or Libya but there are other actors that are less visible. French agree with ANO (revealed in 2019) particularly skeptical but also Irish-American (NORAID) support to PIRA and all other countries that have paid ransom to release their citizens. When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, the extent of East Germany systematic participation in anti-Western terrorism has been laid bare.
Sometimes, there will be successes for security services. In the UK alone, there were activities that exposed Libyans equip weapons of PIRA and meticulous work for that Lockerbie bombing in Libya. At the time, CT work was always secondary to operations against nation-state threats; mainly the Soviet Union and its allies in the Warsaw Pact. In 1970, 105 Soviet intelligence officers were expelled from London, the result of thousands of hours of surveillance and since that time a concerted effort has been maintained to expel Spies of the Soviet bloc thereby disrupting their operations.
It was the end of the Cold War in 1989/90, ushering in the unipolar world of just one superpower. In April 2001, the Hainan Island incident involving a US spy plane off the coast of China raised a question mark about the potential future. threat from a more assertive China. But just four months later, the 9/11 attacks took place and China was forgotten.
Allies in Southeast Asia will repeatedly warn their Western counterparts of the danger of ignoring China’s rise and focusing too much on CT in general and Iraq and Afghanistan in particular; but no results. Understandably, the killing of Al Qa’ida and the capture of its leader, Osama Bin Laden, has become a strategic goal of the United States involving vast intelligence resources. Presidents George Bush and Barack Obama both put pressure on their agencies to prevent any future attacks on American soil. When 30 British tourists were killed at a Tunisian beach resort, then Prime Minister David Cameron Terror is described is “an existential threat”.
For some countries with weak governments, such as Somalia and Mali, terrorism may indeed exist. Terrorism can also deeply corrode civil society. For Western democracies, however, the only instance where terrorism can become an existential threat is if a group succeeds in acquiring weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
There have been some moments of interest. The Japanese sect Aun Shinrikyo attempted to use the nerve agent Sarin on the Tokyo subway in March 1995. Al Qa’ida tried several times to achieve it. WMD. There have long been concerns that the collapse of a country like Pakistan or North Korea could lead to terrorists getting their hands on chemicals; biological, radioactive and nuclear weapons (CBRN).
Change of plan for next 9/11 brother First, the popularity of the plot transformed an ordinary plane hijack to release a prisoner, into a novel concept that used an entirely fuel-powered plane as a flying bomb. In essence, 9/11 has become a borderline case between conventional terrorism and WMD.
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For this reason, CT will remain a major concern for security services worldwide. Furthermore, as long as states continue to support terrorist organizations, we will need to devote the energies of our intelligence agencies to uncovering the plans of terrorist groups and their financiers. their support.
Statistics show that terrorism is a minor threat compared to crime and epidemics, even in the UK, one of the worst-affected countries. Between 1970 and 2019, the UK lost a total of 3,416 people to terrorism but 84% of them were linked to Northern Ireland and 271 to the Lockerbie case. Between 2005 and 2022, 93 people died from terrorism, an average of less than 6 people each year. This compares with 695 homicides in 2020, about 1,500 deaths a year from traffic accidents and about 25,000 from influenza and pneumonia.
The low terrorism figures are partly due to the successes of MI5. Operation Overt in 2006, alone prevented up to ten passenger plane destroyed in the Atlantic Ocean. At the same time, the international (especially US) successes against the Islamic State (IS) and Al Qa’ida terrorist organizations have reduced the ability to organize large-scale attacks in the West. of these organisations.
Increasingly, CT focuses on the phenomenon of ‘Lonely Wolf’; young men go radicalized online and are persuaded to make a basic bomb or just grab a knife from a kitchen cupboard. For security services to address this threat, it requires disproportionate use of their limited resources. Responding to this threat needs to involve mental health provision, social services, education and the police.
One result of the years since 9/11 is that security services have taken on too much of a burden for CT. They are sometimes tempted to bid for generous CT funding while the care providers are still uncomfortable playing the CT role. However, the Lone Wolf phenomenon (whether Muslim or right-wing) should be addressed as a ‘whole government’ effort as envisaged in the original English language. COMPETITION plan. Valuable resources of security services should be focused on the most strategic threats; which not only threatens our way of life but also our very existence.
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