In the waning stages of the late Trump era, everything and nothing was a surprise. We have become immune. I mean, when you see the candidate of a major political party having a mental breakdown in a town hall, stopping answering questions and swaying to his own Spotify playlist for 39 endless minutes —and no one seems to blink—we are no longer surprised. .
There is no final great debate. There are no high-profile events likely to shake up the race in these waning days. Yes, a full-blown war could break out in the Middle East. Or another storm could blow ashore, wreaking havoc and sparking Category 5 conspiracy theories. But the reality is that if nothing or everything happens between now and November 5, the outcome is unlikely to change. exchangeable.
This sucker has been grilled.
And what does that mean? First of all, there are really no undecided voters. If you haven’t figured this out by now, chances are you’re sitting out.
In fact, the oldest cliché is the oldest cliché for a reason: It all depends on voter turnout. Voter turnout with a capital T. In other words: This election will be decided in favor of the candidate whose army can get the most people in key districts in seven swing states to actually vote.
I’m going to make a bold prediction here because I won’t care if I’m wrong, even if this thing lives on the Internet forever. Kamala Harris will win. Probably easy.
Listen to me for a minute. I’m not saying this because some of the polls we’re seeing are flawed. All Voting today is flawed. I mean, how many of you have responded to a political poll in the last five or 10 years? Right? So who are they talking to? Furthermore, everyone in the political establishment realizes that many polls come from dubious partisan polling firms—hired gunmen “experts” who put their thumbs on the scale by simply publishes a series of inaccurate but still reliable vote counts designed to produce perception about an advantage and in some way cause a crowd effect, believing that their words will theoretically help influence actual voters. Good luck with that.
Even if you give professional pollsters the benefit of the doubt – that they are doing their best and paying extra to find voters and properly balance or evaluate their work – they is still modeling its figures based on past races. So the most recent presidential election model was 2020. And people could have voted for Donald Trump or Joe Biden with conviction, but not many people excited about it.
This is why I say Harris will lose.
Trump voters may be committed, but Harris voters are excited and enthusiastic. In August, Harris–Tim Walz ticket was eight points ahead when it arrived voter enthusiasm. And there is one big difference in the ground game. The Democratic Party is Most pay their field workers, while Republicans rely primarily on volunteers. These are factors that are not on the radar of in-person voting.
Additionally, Trump suddenly seems not only lazy, weak (like avoiding another debate) and old, but also really no more. At times, he makes it seem like the “25” in Project 2025 is a secret plan to implement the 25th Amendment if he is actually elected, paving the way—God help us— President J.D. Vance.
Meanwhile, Harris looks strong and confident. She is asking for another debate. She’s entering the lion’s den of Fox News and maybe Joe Roganpodcast by. She’s been running clips of the dictatorial Donald at her rallies—to cheers and jeers. On the campaign trail, she’s enlisting the help of a host of players ready for prime time, including Barack Obama, other top Democrats and some anti-Trump Republicans.
