A dog named Georgia is waiting for their owner outside a polling place Saturday in Charlotte, NC This is the last day for early voting in the state.
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A dog named Georgia is waiting for their owner outside a polling place Saturday in Charlotte, NC This is the last day for early voting in the state.
Sean Rayford / Getty Images
Election Day is Tuesday, but with early voting, more acceptable use of mail-in voting, and the prospect of razor-thin races, it really is Election Season.
And Tuesday just marks the beginning of the next phase in that season.
It is expected for many of these elections to take place over days, if not weeks. This is perfectly normal when there are close elections. That’s not to say there was fraud – despite the 2020 lies about his death that former President Trump pushed and the numerous candidates he supported were announced.
Republicans need to collect just 5 seats to win back the House. They are in the driver’s seat and are widely expected to get there and then some. But the full extent of a GOP wave, if any, or whether Democrats will surprise and keep the House of Representatives, will not be known for some time.
Many of these races are expected to be over and it will take some time to count all the votes. For example, there is a lot of competition for seats in California. The California polls won’t end until 11 p.m. ET, so don’t expect many of them to be known on Election Night. In previous years it happened and it took ages to see results – days and weeks.
As for the Senate, all eyes will be on four states – Pennsylvania and Georgia to the East and Arizona and Nevada to the West. In Georgia, there’s a libertarian on the ballot who will most likely serve as the venue for the protest vote – meaning neither Democrats nor Republicans in the race can pass. pass the 50% threshold required to win the election outright.
If that happens, the election will take place on December 6, meaning control of the Senate will likely not be known for a month after Election Day.
Election results often require patience. This is no different.
People queue to vote on Saturday at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC
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People queue to vote on Saturday at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC
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Recent years have seen an increase in voting by mail, and states have different rules about when ballots by mail are due. State has different procedures for when those ballots can be removed from their envelopes to be processed and numbered, and this can prolong the counting time.
Consider five states, all with important Senate races, where delays and confusion can be expected:
Pennsylvania is one of the places we expect to see quite a dramatic change on Election Night. This year’s vote tally will be faster than 2020, as there are likely to be fewer mail-in ballots, but those mail-in ballots will still take longer and will lead to confusion. Beware “Red Mirage” and Later”Blue teleport. “A lot of vote-by-mail ballots will be reported soon, and we know that Democrats are more likely to say they will vote early or by mail. That may initially make it look like an outage. The Democratic Party’s lead, but then a face-to-face meeting Voting results will come, likely showing Republicans ahead in a tight race. mail will trickle down late in the evening because they take longer to tabulate and will likely favor Democrats and change things more.And Philadelphia simply takes a very long time to report. This is what happens all the time. It’s not nefarious.
Wisconsin do not allow elections officials to begin processing mail-in ballots until ballots open on Election Day. Also, if Milwaukee (high concentration of Black voters) and Dane (University of Wisconsin, younger and more liberal voters) take longer to report, you could see another Red Mirage.
Arizona has seen Trump support slow in 2020 as time goes on. But other years have seen the opposite. It is not yet clear what change will take place this year, but there may be one. The 2020 president was called near 3 a.m. ET, but vote counting continued for days and Biden’s lead, although held, continued to shrink. In the end, the state is decided by just 0.3 percentage points, and Arizona recently switched to automatic recounting for any contests that are 0.5% or less apart. Arizona has had no basis for electoral denialism with its counting and recounting and its attempt to put a group of fake electors in favor of Trump. So beyond the secret ballot, the challenges and noise that will arise around the legitimacy of the vote could cause further chaos.
Georgia has seen a major demographic shift in Atlanta and its surrounding suburbs that has tipped the political nuances in recent years. And those suburbs report their results later than rural counties – so again there could be another Red Mirage here.
Nevada is a similar story with Georgia. It’s a growing state, and much of that boom has been in Las Vegas, Clark County, the state’s largest population center and where nearly 70 percent of the state’s total votes come from in 2020. Clark and Washoe (Reno), given to Biden in 2020, count behind rural counties that will overwhelm Republicans. Also, post-pandemic, Nevada is a state that has switched to voting by mail. People still had the option to vote in person, but every resident in the state was mailed a ballot unless they chose not to receive one.
Also keep in mind that election officials first report unofficial results. Certified results should come in days, if not weeks.
Legal challenges and told It is also possible to extend the time before a winner is determined. Expect this to go on for a while, so patience is required during these impatient times.
NPR’s Benjamin Swasey contributed reporting.
