There is still too much risk in the stock and bond markets. Earn this easy 4.5% profit while you wait for stability, says the trader who hit 2 big calls in 2022.
Ahead of the big tech earnings that followed, the Meta results are lighting up the Nasdaq Composite
CALCULATOR
for Thursday. S&P500
SPX
also increase when investors have a full view of the halves federal meeting.
Worried that investors are in control of a Fed that misunderstands the founder LaDucTrading.com, Samantha La Duc. “The market is not pricing in higher terminal fees or slowing growth or recession. One or more of these assumptions is false. My bet: The Fed will go higher in the long run. They don’t cut back in 2023, unless they have a reason,” she said.
MarketWatch last spoke to LaDuc, who specializes in timing major market movements, last May when she guess The S&P 500 will end 2022 around 3,800 – it ends at 3,859. Another call she nailed was her early 2022 warning of a “Technology corpse” is coming predicts Nasdaq to drop 20% in 2022 – it ended the year down 33%.
in us call of the dayCash is where to go, LaDuc said, and investors “get paid to wait. They are getting very favorable 4.5% on their cash sitting.”
Even though the dollar has depreciated 8% in the past 12 weeks, “the money you put in a money market fund is making 4.5% right now, where it was previously making 0.4% or 0.5%,” she said in an interview Wednesday.
“So the Fed rate hike has fostered a pay-to-wait pattern while the market stabilizes. I don’t think Treasuries are a safe bet this year. I don’t really see any bond outperforming and I think stocks are more of a downside risk than bullish,” LaDuc said.
She’s particularly worried about technology, saying Nasdaq may have a long way to go before the sell-off ends.
She explained that analysts are predicting an earnings recession through the fourth quarter of 2023, not a recession. “Literally, they expect fourth-quarter earnings to grow by about 10% due to a favorable profit comparison to the previous year.
“The problem with that is that the earnings analysis doesn’t look at recessions in any way, shape or form, and it implicitly assumes moderate growth,” LaDuc said. “So we still have Goldilocks priced in shares and priced into earnings.”
The growth-to-value rotation has been a key prediction for LaDuc since July 2020 when she started calling for “things on paper,” predicts a shift to oversold, cyclical and large-cap commodities that act as bottom interest rates.
While that rotation is “absolutely superior” in both 2021 and 2022, she said it will trade worse this year as inflation expectations have softened.
Key point? Instead of buying when the stock market is falling, she said, investors should sell short at higher levels.
Her last observation is tied to gold
GC00
— and she says she’s not a big fan of gold, but her trend indicators are now “igniting” for the precious metal for the first time in years.
Gold can be a tough choice as it has to be “perfectly timed” and is not usually a superior, except for rising higher in the 1970s as a hedge against inflation. What has changed is that last year central banks bought the most gold last year since 1967.
“The lack of counterparty risk is fueling the central bank’s desire to have more control over gold, which needs to be watched right now,” LaDuc said.
market
Nasdaq Composite
CALCULATOR
growing on the Boat Lift Meta, with S&P 500
SPX
also higher, but the Dow
DJIA
slightly. bonds
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
stable, oil
CL
flat, with gold
GC00,
the silver
SI00
and other metals
HG00
go up.
GBP
GBPUSD
bounced off the low after Bank of England raises interest rates by 50 basis points as expected. The European Central Bank also made a similar move, and said it would repeat that rally in March.
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rumor
share meta
META
up 19% after Facebook’s parent company misses out on earnings, but issued upbeat 2023 revenue guidance and promised to buy back more.
Opinion: Zuckerberg and Intel are moving their layoffs straight to Wall Street
And the big names will report after the bell – Apple
AAPL,
Alphabet
GOOGLE
and Amazon.com
AMZN,
Ford
F,
Gilead
GILD,
Starbucks
SBUX
and Qualcomm
QCOM.
See preview for: Apple , Alphabet and Amazon
Merck
A
the stock fell after Disappointing profithoney
FEMALE
is falling into a decrease in revenueEli Lilly
LLY
To be fell for the same reason and Bristol Myers
BMY
many words revenue expectations decreasebut the stock is still stable..
Baidu shares
BIDU
higher after rising in Hong Kong with news on Thursday that BlackRock had increased its stake in the Chinese internet search giant to 6.6% by the end of 2022.
Adani . Group companies market capitalization loss of up to 105 billion dollars after the Indian conglomerate canceled a $2.5 billion share sale, as a result of a scathing report from US short-seller The Hindenburg report continues to take its toll.
Weekly jobless claims were lower than expected at 183,000, while unit labor costs rose 1.1% in the fourth quarter, below expectations for a 1.5% increase. Factory orders will arrive at 10am
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