There is anger in Russia over the missile move, but Putin has so far remained silent

President Biden’s decision allowing Ukraine to attack Russian territory with long-range missiles provided by the US caused a backlash in Russia.

“The resignation of US President Joe Biden… made one of the most provocative, ill-considered decisions of his administration,” the website of Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta declared on Monday morning. risks causing catastrophic consequences.”

Russian MP Leonid Slutsky, head of the pro-Kremlin Liberal-Democratic Party, predicted that the decision “will certainly lead to serious escalation, threatening serious consequences”.

Russian Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov called this “an unprecedented step leading to World War III”.

Angry, yes. But it’s no real surprise.

Komsomolskaya Pravda, a pro-Kremlin tabloid, called it a “predictable escalation”.

What really matters, however, is how Vladimir Putin calls it and how the Kremlin leader reacts.

He said nothing Sunday night.

But the Russian president has said as much before.

In recent months, the Kremlin has given a clear message to the West: do not do this, do not lift restrictions on the use of long-range weapons, do not allow Kiev to strike deep into Russian territory with these weapons. this missile.

In September, President Putin warned that if this was allowed to happen, Moscow would consider it “direct participation” of NATO countries in the Ukraine war.

“This means that NATO countries… are fighting Russia,” he continued.

The following month, the Kremlin leader announced impending changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, the document that sets out the preconditions under which Moscow could decide to use nuclear weapons.

This was interpreted by many as another less than subtle suggestion for the US and Europe not to allow Ukraine to attack Russian territory with long-range missiles.

Guessing Vladimir Putin’s next move is never easy.

But he dropped the hint.

In June, at a meeting with heads of international news agencies, Mr. Putin was asked: How would Russia react if Ukraine had the opportunity to attack targets on Russian territory with European-made weapons? provide?

President Putin replied: “First, of course we will improve our air defense system. We will destroy their missiles.”

“Second, we believe that if someone thinks it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone to attack our territory and cause problems for us, then why can’t we supply them? provide weapons of the same type to areas of the world where we can supply weapons of the same type.” Are they going to target the sensitive facilities of the countries that are doing this to Russia?”

In other words, arming Western opponents to attack Western targets abroad is something Moscow is considering.

In my recent interview with Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus, Putin’s close ally seemed to confirm that the Kremlin was thinking in this direction.

Mr. Lukashenko told me that he discussed this topic in a recent meeting with Western officials.

“I warned them. ‘Guys, be careful with those long-range missiles,'” Mr. Lukashenko told me.

“The Houthis [rebels] could go to Putin and ask for a coastal weapons system that could carry out devastating attacks on ships.

“And if he takes revenge on you for providing him with permanent weapons [President] Zelensky by providing the Houthis with the Bastion missile system? What happens if an aircraft carrier is attacked? An Englishman or an American. What happens after that?”

But some media reactions in Russia seem designed to downplay the incident.

“The Russian armed forces have [previously] intercepted ATACMS missiles during attacks on the Crimean coast,” a military expert told Izvestia newspaper, and suggested that President-elect Trump could “modify” the decision.

This is, to put it mildly, an unusual situation.

In two months, President Biden will be out of office and Donald Trump will enter the White House.

The Kremlin knows that President-elect Trump is much more skeptical than President Biden about military support for Ukraine.

Was that a factor in Vladimir Putin’s calculations when he crafted Russia’s response?