The strike is poised to shut down major US ports

A strike by dock workers is expected to close ports across the US indefinitely, threatening significant economic and trade disruption ahead of the presidential election and busy shopping season. during the holiday season.

Tens of thousands of members of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) are preparing to protest Tuesday at 14 major ports along the east and gulf coasts, disrupting container shipping from Maine to Texas. pause.

Without last-minute intervention, the move would mark the first closure in nearly 50 years.

President Joe Biden has the authority to suspend the strike for 80 days for further negotiations, but the White House has said he has no intention of taking action.

The two sides are fighting over a 6-year master contract with about 25,000 port workers. used in container and roll-on/roll-off operations, according to the United States Maritime Alliance, known as USMX, which represents shipping companies, port associations and marine terminal operators .

Negotiations have been stalled for months and the current contract between the parties expires on Monday.

Union boss Harold Daggett has called for a significant pay rise for his members, while also expressing concern about threats from automation.

USMX has accused the union of refusing to negotiate, filing a complaint with labor regulators asking them to order the union back to the bargaining table.

Under the previous contract, starting wages ranged from $20 to $39 an hour, depending on the worker’s experience. Workers also receive other benefits, such as bonuses related to container trade.

Mr. Daggett pointed out The union wants to see wages increase by $5 per year over the six-year contract term, which he estimates amounts to about 10 percent per year.

The ILA says workers are in debt after shipping company profits soared during the Covid pandemic, while inflation hit wages. It has warned there will be a wider strike by members, including those not directly involved in the dispute, although the exact number remains unclear.

The union says it represents more than 85,000 people; It has claimed to have approximately 47,000 active members its annual report to the Department of Labor.

Time-sensitive imports, such as food, may be among the first affected.

According to the Department of Agriculture, the ports involved handle about 14% of agricultural exports by sea and more than half of imports, including a significant portion of banana and chocolate trade.

Oxford Economics said other sectors at risk of disruption include tin, tobacco and nicotine. Clothing and shoe companies and European automakers, which ship many of their shipments through the Port of Baltimore, will also be affected.

Imports to the US increased sharply in the summer as many businesses took steps to speed up exports before the strike.

“I don’t think we’ll see immediate, significant economic impacts… but within a few weeks, if the strike lasts this long, we could start to see price increases and there will be shortage of goods,” he said. Seth Harris, professor at Northeastern University and former White House adviser on labor issues.

According to Grace Zemmer, a US economist at Oxford Economics, more than a third of exports and imports could be affected by the strike, causing US economic growth to reach at least 4.5 billion USD per week after the strike. The economic impact could be higher.

She said more than 100,000 people could temporarily lose their jobs due to the impact of widespread shutdowns.

“This is truly a triggering event, one that will see dominoes fall over the coming months,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean freight analytics firm Xeneta. ”.

That will affect consumers and businesses that tend to rely on so-called “just-in-time” supply chains for goods, he added.

The standoff causes instability for the US economy at a sensitive time.

The economy is slowing and unemployment is rising as the US election approaches in six weeks.

The strike threatens to put President Biden in a difficult position.

The US president can intervene in labor disputes that threaten national security or safety by imposing an 80-day standstill period, forcing workers to return to work while negotiations continue. custom.

In 2002, Republican President George W Bush intervened to open ports after 11 days of a strike by dock workers on the west coast.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s business group has called on President Biden to take action.

“Americans experienced the pain of delays and shortages during pandemic-era supply chain backlogs in 2021,” said Suzanne P. Clark, president and chief executive officer. It would be in your conscience to let a contract dispute cause such a shock to our economy.” Manage the business group.

The ILA’s Mr. Daggett endorsed Democratic nominee Biden in 2020, but has recently criticized the president, citing pressure on West Coast dockworkers to reach a settlement. last year. He met Donald Trump in July.

William Brucher, a professor of labor studies and employment relations at Rutgers University, said that while any chaotic strike could hurt Democrats, the cost of alienation from allies in the labor movement just weeks before the election will be greater.

But public support for the strikes could be tested by the dispute, which is supported by Mr Daggett, who was acquitted was linked to organized crime in a 2004 case by federal prosecutors. A related civil lawsuit remains unresolved.

Films such as the 1954 classic On the Waterfront once defined the image of dockworkers’ unions, but Professor Brucher said he thought historical memory had largely faded and many people shared dock workers’ concerns about living costs and automation.

“While it may sway public opinion against the ILA, it is their decision for ILA members to strike and I don’t think they will be swayed by public opinion in any meaningful way,” he said. meaning”.

“What is more likely is that the pressure of a strike would likely force the employer to return to the negotiating table with a much more substantial offer.”