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Some tanker stocks include the Scorpio (NYSE:STNG) and Ardmore Shipping (NYSE:ASCENDING) has quadrupled last year, and as new sanctions have diverted Russian oil flows to more distant ports, Evercore analyst Jonathan Chappell think the rally”maybe just the beginning.”
Chappell sees Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “a generational geopolitical event that has the potential to change the world’s maritime currents”. [still] most important commodity in years” and believes the effects “haven’t been fully realized in just 6-9 months.”
Chappell said a ban on Russian fuel shipments to Europe that took effect two weeks ago could prove an even bigger catalyst than Russia’s crude oil ban. Barron’s.
Chappell explained that China and India don’t import as much fuel as diesel compared to crude, because they have their own refineries to produce the fuel, so Russia will need to ship the fuel on these sites. even longer and more expensive journeys to find new markets; During the first week of the fuel ban, rates for large tankers jumped 35 percent after soaring to a 14-year high last year.
Chappell notes: The “shadow fleet” of Russian tankers that can transport oil without a price ceiling consists mostly of very old ships that don’t really compete with the newer ships that are used by most carriers. company use.
So far, tanker companies focused on transporting fuel have performed better than those focused on crude oil; Shares of Scorpio and Ardmore have risen 280% and 390% respectively over the past year and Teekay Tankers (TNK), known for its midsize tankers, increased 245%.
Crude oil tanker inventories also had a large increase, but not as large; DHT Group (University) has doubled and Euronav (EURN) has increased by 60% in the past year.
Chappell believes both types of tanker companies are more likely to operate, with crude carriers potentially catching up with fuel carriers as time goes on.
Scorpion Tanker (STNG) was reported recently Q4 adjusted earnings and sales were better than expected.
