The Party of Trump – The New York Times

Last night provided the latest evidence of Donald Trump’s continued influence over the Republican Party. In today’s newsletter, we’ll give you the results and also provide some larger perspective on the overall success rate of Trump’s endorsements this year.

First, here are the main results:

• Liz Cheney – the most senior Trump critic in the party – resoundingly lost her main race for Wyoming’s Lonely House chair. Cheney received 29 percent of the vote, compared with 66 percent for Harriet Hageman, the Trump-backed candidate who has not previously held elected office. (This is a Times profile of Hagemanand analysis of What Cheney’s loss means to GOP)

• In the Republican primary in Wyoming for secretary of state, the office that oversees the elections, the winner was Chuck Grey, a state legislator endorsed by Trump. Gray, like Trump, has falsely claimed that the 2020 presidential election was rigged.

• In Alaska, Sarah Palin, the former governor of the state Trump endorsed, and two opponents — Mary Peltola, a Democrat, and Nick Begich, a Republican — advanced to the November election for the House seat. open hospital of Alaska to replace Don Young, who passed away in March.

• Alaska also held a Senate primary, but its outcome did not seem to matter much. The state uses open primaries in which the four people with the highest votes advance to the general election. Both the incumbent – Lisa Murkowski, who voted to convict Trump during his impeachment trial for the attack on the Capitol – and Trump’s favorite candidate, Kelly Tshibaka, are progressive. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, possibly favoring a moderate like Murkowski.

Here are the latest votes from Alaska and Wyoming.

Trump’s 2022 record

The Main schedule 2022 are on a downward trend, with only six states yet to hold elections, including Florida next week. The full picture of Trump’s influence is becoming clear.

He became the rare defeated president to wield great influence over his party, with the ability to end his career (like Cheney’s perhaps) and turn obscure candidates into winners. win. Trump even convinced other top Republicans, like Representative Kevin McCarthy and Senator Ted Cruz, to endorse Cheney’s opponent.

But Trump’s influence is not complete. His approval success rate in competitive elections hovers around 80%, and some incumbents (perhaps like Murkowski) have proven strong enough to overcome his criticism of the election. they.

The Times’ Maggie Haberman notes that Trump sometimes gives endorsements without thinking it through, including in multi-racial races with more than one candidate supporting his agenda. “Trump tends to see politics as a scorecard, as opposed to a strategic endeavor,” Maggie said.

This chart, by our colleague Ashley Wu, summarizes Trump’s performance in the 2022 primaries so far.

Trump’s biggest successes include races in which he helped defeat incumbents who challenged him, including four of the 10 Republicans in the House who voted to impeach him on Wednesday. January 6. Trump also switched some campaigns without an incumbent, allowing his supporters to win large numbers of fields. Examples include J.D. Vance in the Ohio Senate primaries; Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania Senate primaries; and Lake Kari in the Arizona governor’s primaries.

If anything, our chart above underestimates Trump’s influence, because it doesn’t include officials who resigned in part out of fear that a more Trump-friendly candidate could can beat them. The Ohio and Pennsylvania Senate seats, as well as the Missouri and North Carolina seats, seem to be examples. The senators who have chosen not to run in these states — like Rob Portman of Ohio — aren’t even regular Trump critics. Instead, they tend to be established Republicans who try to avoid talking about him.

Of the 10 Republicans in the House of Representatives who voted to impeach Trump, four also did not run for re-election. Overall, only two still has a chance to stay in Congress next year.

With all that said, Trump is no all-powerful. The races his favored candidates have lost this year tend to fall into one of two categories: either his chosen candidates are facing connected incumbents strong enough with voters to survive or Trump-backed candidates seem too flawed to win.

Georgia falls into the first category. There, both Governor Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger, secretary of state, main challengers survive despite their refusal to help Trump’s effort to reverse the 2020 election results.

The race for the Alabama senate falls into the second category. Mo Brooks, a member of the House of Representatives involved in the effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election, hit it so hard that Trump withdrew his endorsement at the end of the campaign and then turned to Katie Britt, who seems to have won. Other Trump supporters who have lost the race include Representative Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina, who has been charged with insider trading and sexual misconduct; and Charles Herbster, a candidate for governor of Nebraska, who was accused by many women of groping.

Key point

Even if Trump doesn’t become the Republican presidential candidate again, he continues to shape the Republican Party. He helped push out of Congress a number of Republicans who had voted for this year’s bipartisan legislation. He also removed several people who lied about his election and criticized his encouragement of rioters on January 6.

In their place are candidates who have signaled that they may be willing to cheat the election to prevent Democrats from taking office, regardless of the results of the count.

“These major battles are not between the ‘pro-Trump’ faction and the ‘anti-or-Never pro-Trump’ faction of the GOP,” said Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report Written, which refers to most races. “In both style and content, the current GOP is still Trump’s party.”

Life Lived: Wolfgang Petersen made huge hits in Hollywood, but he’s best remembered for the incredible 1981 German war film “Das Boot”. He died at the age of 81.

SPORTS NEWS FROM ATHLETIC

How long will Kevin Durant be in limbo? Have we can get some from recent NBA transaction request history. The ultimatum Durant gave the Brooklyn Nets — and the fact that he owes $194 million — means the process could take some time.

Another LIV-related lawsuit: Former PGA Tour golfer Patrick Reed is Golf channel event and commentator Brandel Chamblee for defamation. PGA Tour stars, including Tiger Woods, are meeting to discuss the rebel joint venture.

Jets more miserable? Defender Zach Wilson underwent knee surgery and is expected to be absent for four to six weeks. New York’s Week 1 game will run for 3 and a half weeks. This means it’s time for Joe Flacco for Jets.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Willie Nelson is still standing

Willie Nelson is already 89 years old — when getting out of bed every morning could be considered a feat of survival, Jody Rosen wrote in The Times Magazine. Musically, however, he will be stronger than ever.

Nelson is an outlier in the youth-obsessed music industry. He didn’t hit superstardom until he was 45, and once he did, he never stopped working. Over the past two decades, he has made 36 albums, including forays into reggae and gospel. “It was a good job,” he said. “At least the best I’ve had.”