The only oil spill that could disrupt global energy supplies

During the past year, the world energy market fluctuated strongly. A warmer-than-average winter in Europe has helped avoid a gas crisis this year, but the forecast for next winter remains unclear as unrest continues. More than 20% of global liquefied natural gas exports originate from a single port in Qatar.

A new article in Sustainable nature by a team of researchers at the University of Louvain, the University of Southern California’s Viterbi School of Engineering (USC), and the Qatar Institute of Energy and Environmental Research, pinpointed the location of what the authors call ” highly vulnerable areas”, where an oil spill could cause liquefied natural gas export facilities and coastal desalination plants to close completely for several days.

In the event of an oil spill, tankers cannot navigate through thick oil slicks. Furthermore, desalination plants, which rely on the extraction of seawater, cannot perform their normal operations with heavily polluted water. This outage could cause significant disruptions in the global gas supply and cause unprecedented water shortages for residents of the Qatar Peninsula, the researchers explain. affect containment efforts.

The researchers say awareness of such a vulnerability is imperative. Qatar’s export capacity is expected to grow by about 64% over the next five years. As a result, this key port will continue to be an important hotspot for the global energy supply chain. The researchers also note that the growing number of tanker accidents in the Gulf adds to concerns, particularly regarding how such accidents could affect infrastructure important coastal layer, which exports vital energy to the planet and ensures the safety of desalinated water for one person. of the world’s driest climates.

The article uses an advanced numerical model to sort maritime shipping data, atmospheric circulation, ocean currentswave and seabed topographic data collected over a 5-year period to locate specific, offshore areas of the Qatar Peninsula prone to oil spills and assess potential supply disruptions Global liquid natural gas.

Research shows that oil tankers passing through the area are the main risk of oil spills, not the many oil rigs north of the Peninsula. The researchers suggest that if there were spills in the area, Qatar would have only a few days to contain the spill before those spills reach the main liquefied petroleum gas export facility and desalination plant. main of the country. The authors point out that these events have the potential to disrupt or even completely shut down activity during the day for desalination plantforcing the country to rely on small freshwater reserves and driving up the price of liquefied natural gas.

To put the scale of the problem in context, experts believe that the largest liquid natural gas carriers from Qatar provide enough energy to heat the entire city of London for a week.

Research advocates augmenting remote sensing using satellite and aerial imagery of Gulf’s most vulnerable areas to provide early warning of oil spills and good modeling than their evolution. The above actions are important to guide mitigation efforts to avoid negative consequences both locally and globally, the researchers say.

Co-author Essam Heggy of the USC Center for Dry Climate and Water Research argues that the Middle East’s vulnerability to environmental and climate hazards is largely underestimated. “Preventing major global oil spills has always been a challenge, but even more so in the shallow waters of the Gulf, where any intervention must take into account complex circulation flows, harsh operating environments and the presence of highly sensitive ecosystems on which three million people depend on drinking water.”

He added, “I hope serious resources are put in to address this vulnerability.”

Co-author Emmanuel Hanert of Louvain University stated: “The vulnerability of oil spills in the Gulf could exacerbate both the global energy crisis and the local water crisis in the Gulf countries.” He added that “Water and energy security are deeply interconnected and both are at risk of being disrupted by a major oil spill. We have identified marine areas in the Gulf where an oil spill would be the most dangerous for natural gas and liquefied gas export and desalination facilities. Satellite monitoring should focus on detection oil spill as soon as possible and thus limit their impact.”