This pager runs on two AAA batteries, like any batterycould be triggered to explode, but probably not as powerful or on a scale as the explosions depicted in the alleged videos of the explosions. Even if this is not the model of the pager and the ones Hezbollah used were instead powered by lithium ion batteries, it is possible cause more dangerous explosionsIt is still unlikely that a typical pager battery could produce an explosion that could injure many people.
“These explosions are more than just batteries,” said Jake Williams, vice president of research and development at Hunter Strategy, who previously worked for the U.S. National Security Agency. “Based on the report, these pagers were likely intercepted by Israeli authorities and modified with explosives. This highlights the supply chain security risks, especially in areas where technology is more difficult to transport.”
Williams pointed out that such an operation would likely involve spies on both the technology distribution side and Hezbollah’s procurement side. “You compromise the supply chain, but you don’t want thousands of explosive pagers running around Lebanon,” he said. “The mole would direct them to the right people.”
Several reports on Tuesday said Hezbollah had recently expanded its use of pagers to try to secure communications after other channels were hacked by Israeli intelligence. The Associated Press reported that an unnamed “Hezbollah official” said the group had recently adopted a “brand” of pagers that “first heats up, then explodes”.
“It is unlikely that hackers were involved, as explosives would have to be inside the pager to cause such an impact,” said Lukasz Olejnik, an independent consultant and visiting senior research fellow at King’s College London’s Department of War Studies. “The reports refer to recent deliveries of pagers, so it is likely that the delivery was compromised.”
Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at Middle East and North Africa risk management firm Le Beck International, said if the attack was supply chain-based, it could take years to prepare and involve hacking into suppliers and placing explosives inside new pagers.
“This is a major security breach, especially if we’re talking about a charge embedded inside devices—which I think is the most likely scenario,” Horowitz said. “This means that Israel has penetrated Hezbollah’s suppliers to the point where it is shipping hundreds (if not thousands) of devices used for secure communications.”
The incident comes amid escalating fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in recent months, raising fears of all-out war. Hours before Tuesday’s blast, Israel say its war aims would include allowing 60,000 people to return to northern Israel after they were evacuated following Hezbollah attacks, and not rule out military action.
Horowitz said the incident could be a “prelude to a broader attack” and could be aimed at disrupting Hezbollah’s communications network. It is likely that replacing a large number of pagers would take some time to organize. On the other hand, Horowitz said, the attack could also have been carried out to show “the extent of Israeli intelligence penetration.”
“This is a high-value activity that you wouldn’t use just to cause injury,” says Horowitz.
The operation could have had a psychological impact, as the bomb could have hidden undetected in such a modest device. And while Tuesday’s attacks were notably aggressive, they were not the first time Israeli intelligence has been reported explosives are placed IN Electronic equipment.
