French National Front (FN) leader Marine Le Pen took a stand against incumbent President Emmanuel Macron in the latest vote ahead of the first round of the French presidential election on April 10.
Charles Platiau | Reuters
French markets have been mixed as new poll shows far-right candidate Marine Le Pen narrowing gap with incumbent President Emmanuel Macron before the presidential election of the country.
The latest Ipsos Sopra Steria Cevipof poll for the newspaper Le Monde on Wednesday gave Macron an expected share of the vote of 26.5% to Le Pen’s 21.5% in the first round of voting on April 10, compared with 28% for Macron and 17.5% for Le Pen in the last poll conducted March 21-24.
French bonds plummet on Tuesday as a new poll emerges, sending benchmarks 10 years profit to the highest level since 2015, while CAC 40 The stock index underperformed the rest of Europe, falling nearly 1.3% and continuing its decline on Wednesday.
Although Macron is still backed to win the April 24 election, Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Race party, is currently in his strongest voting position on a centralized platform. focused on restricting immigration and increasing law enforcement funding. The National Rally has also proposed new commitments aimed at working people concerned about the cost of living, such as property taxes.
The candidacy of Éric Zemmour, seen as even more on the right side than Le Pen, supported her efforts to appear like a more dovish option than previously perceived and to be agreeable. to a disillusioned center-right section of Macron’s tenure.
Antonio Barroso, Teneo’s deputy director of research, said in a note Wednesday that voters have begun to rally around the candidates with the highest chance of running away, with Le Pen winning voters from Zemmour.
Barroso said the risk of Le Pen’s victory had increased, but Teneo still predicted a 75% probability of Macron holding the presidency.
Some of the market slowdown at the prospect of Le Pen as president was attributed to concerns around political and economic unification in Europe’s response to Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.
Le Pen has in the past expressed sympathy for Russia and President Vladimir Putin, and expressed doubts about the European Union.
“Contrary to our expectations, Le Pen was able to avoid criticism about her past relationship with Russia, focusing instead on her message about the cost of living,” says Barroso. Activities increased by popular but impractical measures such as eliminating income tax for people under 30 years old.
“The fact that there are no proper debates between the candidates may help her ability to become the most reliable candidate on the issue of purchasing power, while the ‘circle of flags’ rally has been fading for Macron in the last few days.”
After a resounding defeat in 2017, Le Pen is no longer campaigning to withdraw from the EU or eurobut her ascension to the presidency will likely create a key to the bloc’s work.
Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg, said in a note on Wednesday that although Le Pen would be unlikely to return to European integration, further progress would likely stall.
Pickering said.
“Her spending proposals could violate EU fiscal rules once they are re-established in 2024 after potentially new suspensions in 2023 due to Putin’s war.” .”
Soon after coming to power in 2017, Macron implemented sweeping economic reforms, cutting taxes on investors and the wealthy and relaxing hiring and firing rules. Data shows that the French economy has recovered stronger than most of its peers, after entering the Covid-19 pandemic in a period of better performance.
Berenberg has long maintained that Macron’s reforms will make France the EU’s “growth engine” over the next decade, but Pickering said this would run the risk of Le Pen at the helm. religion.
He added: “While a short-term fiscal boost may maintain momentum in the short term, subsidies, protectionism and reforms will hurt France’s growth potential.
