The Kansas City Chiefs need Travis Kelce to produce the way no 33-year-old tight end ever has

Before I begin, Travis Kelce should still be the first to be tight-lipped on this year’s fantasy football draft panel. He’ll have to ramp up his workload with Tyreek Hill in Miami, and Patrick Mahomes will soon be relying on him just as you leaned on someone you knew at the wedding before alcohol cooled.

I’m not saying that Mahomes will start drinking before the game; I say it will take time to build the chemistry with the additions of freelance agents JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and rookie Skyy Moore. I also don’t want to hear anything about Mecole Hardman – at least not until he’s more than a theoretically good receptacle.

That means there will be plenty of short, quick passes to 87 at key downs and in general. And that’s MO if you’ve been watching KC since Mahomes took power. In fact, since the Texas Tech product became the starter, Kelce has hit more goals (565 goals in 63 games) than Hill (520 goals in 60 games). They each take turns being the team leader receiving the title-wise, with Hill winning the title in 2021 and 2018, and Kelce leading the team in 2019 and 2020.

Hill stated in June that Mahomes will have many long days without him on the field, and that may be the situation for a bit. Still, confusing at first, I expect Kansas City to start making noise because a quarter of that caliber doesn’t regress with Jeff George losing an early fall. While Mahomes will have to figure out his deep-rooted threats, his connection to Kelce is symbiotic enough to transform the third blemish. How far they can go with an older tight finish as the #1 pick is worth wondering.

The prevailing logic is that Kelce will have 100+ receptions, 1,000+ yards in the season now that he has Mahomes to his own. And while that will likely remain so, it’s fair to ask if the Chiefs’ background is up to the task over a 17-game season. He played 15 or more games a year beyond his first season when he only appeared in one game through injury. That leads me to believe he will be out there.

G/O Media may receive a commission

FREE

Audible Premium Plus 3-Month Free Trial

Listen up
The Audible Premium Plus experience for Amazon Prime users includes unlimited listening to the Premium Catalog, plus (see what they do there?) one credit per month for any title of their choice.

The issue is what version of him will be running around Arrowhead. He turns 33 in October, and this’ll be his 10th season. Rob Gronkowski was retired for a year before he played his 10th season, and he just re-retired at age… 33. I understand New England and Tom Brady didn’t do Gronk any favors as far as receiver help and usage goes, and Kelce has never looked as rigid as the other 87 did toward the latter part of his career.

That said, Kelce had his lowest yardage output in 2021 (1,125) since 2017 (1,038), and had the lowest yards per catch average (12.2) since 2015 when he posted the same number, per Pro Football Reference.

Tony Gonzalez never went over 930 yards in the year after he turned 33, and Antonio Gates couldn’t get past 872 yards after he was that age. The most yards Jason Witten has scored after reaching that watermark is 713. Shannon Sharpe left the game at 35 after 811-686- and 770-yard seasons. Jimmy Graham has been out of touch since he left New Orleans, and He’s only taken a total of 1,020 yards in the three years since turning 33.

Kelce currently has 9,006 career yards, ranking sixth all-time among tight ends. He will surpass Gronk this year and can go as high as fourth on that list if he goes above 955 yards to pass Sharpe. He had more 1,000 season yards (six) more than any other tight finish in NFL history, and unless George Kittle and Darren Waller (two each) can put together four more All-Pro seasons, he will retire with this record.

I’m likely to get death threats from Kansas City fans after this piece because the midwestern women who jump on it love the Travis Kelce surname. I can’t speak to that aspect of his game, but that fan base is very protective of the players who brought them their first Super Bowl in decades. (Thanks Godod they can stop protecting Hill.)

So yes, pick Kelce over Mark Andrews because he will have a good year. Even if he doesn’t have an All-Pro first-team knockout performance, he’ll have enough touchdowns to make it worth your money/selection.

The league is more fun than ever, and as you appreciate Mahomes and Andy Reid’s love of pitching, all signs point to Kelce going down as the tightest finish ever. Now when he calls it a break. However, he is entering territory that has never been seen before, and will carry a greater burden and attract the attention of a second person than he has seen since Cheetah’s arrival.

So yes, Hill’s departure is a huge loss, but the issue is clearly Kelce and his effectiveness. The tightest finish in the NFL? Sure. Will he still be great enough to get his QB back into the Super Bowl in a transition year for the legion of takeovers? That I don’t know.