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The Forces Shaping 2023 – The New York Times


If the past is just a prologue, the stormy 2022 should serve as a guide to what will happen to our climate-changing world next year.

We are in a strange, unsettling purgatory. It is clear that the world has slowed down in warming since the Paris accord was established in 2015. But it is also clear that the forces against change are very strong and the world is still on the way to overcome the challenges. relatively safe warming threshold.

The year 2022 features seven transformative developments. They will certainly shape what will happen in 2023.

War for the global energy landscape.

Russia used its fossil fuel wealth to finance its invasion of Ukraine. It continues to use its oil and natural gas as a weapon, completely changing the global energy landscape. The war has pushed up the prices of almost everything else that requires energy to produce and transport around the world, including food, most alarmingly.

Europe faces a reckoning. Due to its heavy reliance on Russian gas for lighting and heating, European Union lawmakers scrambled by 2022 to find alternative energy sources. All of the world’s gas producers are happy to comply, including the United States, the world’s largest gas exporter, which has promised to ship liquefied natural gas for years to come.

Let’s see what happens in 2023. Will Europe build more pipelines and more gas import ports to prevent dependence on hydrocarbons for electricity and heat? Or will Russia’s war in Ukraine accelerate the transition to renewable energy?

The International Energy Agency says there are indications that the energy crisis could play a role.accelerator” for the clean energy transition, just to warn that “even in a world with high and volatile fossil fuel prices, there is no doubt that today’s cost advantage over clean, efficient will translate into more sustainable investment options.”

In the meantime, however, the Europeans are suffering. Dim lights in many European cities, including Paris. In the UK, high energy bills are forcing people to sit out damp house.

Petroleum killed.

Even as war poses the strategic risks of dependence on fossil fuels, oil and gas producers have made record profits as demand for oil and gas soars from anywhere. except Russia. Net income in this sector is expected to hit record levels 4 trillion dollars in 2022, double the previous year, according to the IEA, consulting firm Deloitte has expected increase in investment in natural gas in 2023.

Democracy has held two important elections.

In the May, Australians overthrow conservative coalition that has made one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world also among the most stubborn when it comes to reducing planet-warming emissions. The new Labor-led government has passed legislation requiring Australia to drastically cut emissions by 2030 and then budget to boost renewable energy.

In October, Brazilians reject their incumbents, president of climate science denial, Jair Bolsonaro. Newly elected Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be inaugurated on January 1. Containing deforestation in the Amazon will be one of his biggest challenges.

The United States introduced a landmark law.

The biggest polluter in history has finally passed away big climate lawaccompanied by a large pre-climate.

The $370 billion package spurs businesses to switch to renewable energy and provides public funding for research on new climate innovations. “What we are seeing are the sprouts of a new kind of industrial policy,” said David Victor, a professor at the University of California, San Diego. Brookings Institution Events this month.

Money starts rolling out in 2023 and it will reshape the American landscape and the lives of ordinary Americans. It will inevitably lead to local battles and unexpected challenges. It will be one of the most important stories to follow.

Doubt increased.

The rich and poor countries of the world are bitterly divided. Poor countries are suffering the consequences of unfair distribution of Covid vaccines. Some are on the verge of defaulting on the country’s wealthier creditors. Their economies have been hit hard by extreme weather disasters plus global warming.

The big breakthrough at this year’s climate talks was a fund establishment agreement to help poor countries deal with the irreversible economic losses and damage made worse by pollution caused by rich nations. Expect calls in 2023 with real money.

Given the geopolitical fault lines, global climate cooperation is likely not going to be easy in 2023.

The protests became more creative, braver.

Some climates Activists threw food at famous and captured paintings, although the art is protected by glass. Others deflated SUV tires in different cities. At the climate talks in Egypt, protests broke out not only over climate issues but also demanding the release of political prisoners – remarkable for a country that banned demonstrate.

Beyond the climate, this has been a year of extraordinary protests. Sri Lankans took to the streets and overthrew the government. In Iran, young people have led a rare national revolt for social and political reform. Perhaps most notably, in China, people took to the streets to protest against the state’s “no Covid” policy.

Let’s see where and how people’s anger is transmitted in 2023.

The sun passes.

Something extraordinary happened amid so much suffering.

Solar energy is growing so fast that the IEA concludes that it can outshine coal is the biggest source global electricity by 2027.

To be sure, coal use has increased a bit this year, especially in countries looking to tap into Russian oil and gas. But the direction of change is clear: Renewables are expected to double between 2022-27, from five years earlier, and surpass coal’s share of total energy by 2025.

Also, in December, researchers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory cracked the code on what could ultimately happen. a way to produce endless, zero-carbon energy. Let’s see where this still experimental nuclear fusion research will go next year and beyond.


ICYMI: Giant law. Amazon’s Secret Runway. A trash guessing game. Reporters and editors on the Times climate team shared favorite articles in 2022.

Tilt at wind farms: The federal government is pumping $370 billion into clean energy. Regardless of that amount, the fate of wind power will largely be decided at rural town halls.

Insulting people: BlackRock’s social-conscious investment call, the world’s largest asset manager, seems to be antagonize both left and right.

Google versus power companies: Tech company says its carbon-free energy goals are thwarted by utilities managed by the state.

‘Very disappointing’: President Biden has promised the United States will spend $11.4 billion a year to help poorer nations deal with climate change. Parliament proposed 1 billion dollars, instead.

Question about cold weather climate: what polar vortex? As for a “tornado bomb?” Can the climate change? increase the amount of snowfall? We had the answers.

Wild and wild: Famous artists are buried at the Père-Lachaise Cemetery in Paris. More and more foxes, feather owls and macaws call it home, too.


One important change: This could have been green transition year beginsLeah C. Stokes, an associate professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

The afterlife of holiday waste: Comic artist Amy Hwang drew what happened to the things we throw away at Christmas.

A two-decade-long drought is forcing developers to find innovative ways to provide water to new communities in the rapidly growing Southwest. Developers are planting trees to slow evaporation, designing roads that can collect and store rainwater, and building water recycling systems. According to one development consultant, “We are in the early stages of a new era of innovation and investment.


Adjust: The newsletter on Tuesday, December 20, misrepresented Mark Carney’s role in the sale of farmland in Brazil. Mr. Carney has held senior positions at Brookfield, the property management company that sold the property. He is not the owner of the land.


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