Doug WiseFormer Deputy Director, Defense Intelligence Department
Douglas H. Wise served as Deputy Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency from August 2014 to August 2016. After 20 years in the Army, where he served as an infantry and special operations officer, Mr. spent the rest of his career at the CIA.
Robert PappFormer Senior Executive, CIA
Robert Papp retired from the Central Intelligence Agency as a senior executive with extensive overseas operations and command experience. He began his career in the United States Navy as a Russian cryptographer and linguist. He holds a PhD in Russian history from Columbia University, a Master’s degree in Russian Regional Studies from Georgetown University, and a Bachelor’s degree from the United States Naval Academy.
IDEA – According to this article, carnage continues to increase, Russian military forces move forward and backward, and negotiations stalemate. At some point in the not-too-distant future, historians and political scientists will attempt to answer the question, when would the encouragement and exhortation of a heroic people resist brutal aggression? become an act of geopolitical jest as well as an inspiration?
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues “in full force”, NATO continues with a series of “half measures” and overly cautious initiatives. For this article, we define “half-way measures” as providing military support, encouraging Ukrainians to fight, and economic “war” against Russia – all done in response to the conflict. aggression while avoiding direct conflict with the Russian military (the authors believe that the deployment of NATO forces to Ukraine should have been done before the Russian military violated Ukraine’s sovereignty).
We believe that people in the future will judge us harshly for being too cautious and not intervening sooner and more decisively. It is also possible that they will harshly criticize us for exploiting the limitless courage and determination of the Ukrainian people. We acknowledge that NATO member countries’ supply of anti-tank weapons, surface-to-air missiles and other equipment and intelligence support from NATO member states has made a big difference on the Ukrainian battlefield. As a result, observers around the globe are steadily consuming images on social media of burned-out Russian tanks and helicopters falling to earth.
In addition, we create a degree of comfort by showing our “solidarity” and encouraging Ukrainian resistance while we remain inspired by the brave defiance of the President. Zelenskyy system. Because we are culturally invincible to the weak, we hold fervent hope that the Russian forces are stalled, out of ammunition, poorly trained and morally incapable of achieving full victory. integrity, and the situation will favor the Ukrainian Army. But hope is not a plan, and we must absorb the objective reality that Ukraine cannot force Russian troops out of Ukrainian soil.
Despite the terrible military advice Putin receives from armed forces leaders, in keeping with his own fantasies of a quick conquest of Europe’s largest country, we need must view objectively what is happening on the ground. Comparison of the current tactical map of Russia’s advances with Putin’s infamous “historic” map of an illegitimate Ukrainian state shows that he cannot decisively win unless he wins. before Putin was the massacre of thousands of innocent Ukrainian civilians. We also aspire to regime change in Russia. But will Russia really turn its back on him while we silently plead for the mothers of Russian soldiers who perished in the act of standing up and confronting the Putin regime? Or are we blinded by our own optimism because we focus solely on the street protests, bloggers and newsroom embarrassments in Moscow?
We can denigrate Putin as a national leader, but we doubt he is really isolated and it should be noted that he has the support of the majority of the Russian people, and that is important. It is important to remember that many parts of the world did not speak out against him. , and some are even supporting him. Unable to achieve ground victory, Putin’s unscrupulous measure (which we have already begun to see) is to turn to indiscriminate air and missile attacks, and missile and missile attacks. barbaric artillery aimed at innocent civilians. As Putin grew angrier over the losses on the ground, he was “culturally forced” to use Russia’s time-tested method to force cities into submission.
Summary of ciphers Subscriber + Member accessible Cryptographic Briefing and former CIA Director of the Eurasian Center, review by Rob Dannenberg, With his only option to escalate, this is how Putin’s War must end
These tactics have been used by Russia throughout history from Berlin during the Second World War, Grozny in Chechnya and Raqqa in Syria. As Putin’s inner circle was placed on a personal sanctions list, threatened with war crimes, and faced the eventual economic collapse of the Russian Federation, they were trapped. Like Putin’s childhood “backward rat”, they have no power but to join him and fight to the end for their wealth and power to come from him, and his from the state.
The wounded bear must win and do it quickly. Total war in Ukraine is a logical outcome because half of NATO’s measures are unlikely to prevent Putin from seeking total and unconditional victory. While we ponder painfully why Russia has taken this violent path, it is important to remember that Putin’s “special military operation” is also intended to humiliate and punish Ukraine as well as for its military record. the. When we observe “Russia’s irresistible force meets Ukraine’s immovable object,” can we reliably assess that a decisive Ukrainian victory on the ground is achievable?
Ukrainians will surely die trying, while NATO remains on the sidelines debating ever-expanding ideas about what constitutes an act of war while conveniently defining the limits of duty. NATO ethics (without Article V of “an attack on one, an attack on all”) to avoid doing more at your convenience.
It may be helpful to note at this point that NATO’s bombing of Belgrade in 1999, to protect the Albanians in Kosovar, was done outside of Article V’s obligations. No one, including the authors, supported advocate for leaving Ukrainians to their fate or encouraging them to sue for peace on draconian terms. But who gains and who loses from the continued carnage and human suffering that NATO’s near-but not-quite-enough-total-victory military support will inevitably allow?
Before long, the population of Ukraine, which has seen the flight of some three million refugees, will have little left but ruins for where the cities once stood. The humanitarian impact of this barbaric Russian devastation on the ground is only just beginning to be felt and it is unlikely that the Russian occupiers will accept future humanitarian aid and assistance from the West because fears it will bring the spirit of freedom alongside desperately needed food, water and medical care.
Other losers across the globe and far from the carnage are yet to be fully identified. The dizzying scale of NATO’s economic warfare, as an alternative to NATO’s military action, may not produce decisive results, but will still please Western leaders. Forget the implications for supply chains and global markets, stock market portfolios, hedge funds and currencies in advanced economies for now. Forget even potential cyberattacks or the ability to disable the internet. Instead, consider the appalling plight of poor nations, which are even now reeling from wheat prices in the Middle East and beyond.
One constant in this war is its unpredictability. We were taken by surprise at every turn and it is very likely that despite NATO’s prudent actions, we will find ourselves in direct military confrontation with Russian forces. If this happens, we will regret that we did not confront the Russians about 10,000 Ukrainians who fell before. We missed our chance to intervene when the Russians were massing their invading forces, so now we are fighting “with, with and through” Ukrainian courage while NATO stand watching.
Historians of the future will judge us harshly for exploiting and squandering the gift that every fallen Ukrainian has given us. Let us honor and applaud the courage, determination and resilience of the Ukrainian people, and loudly condemn the barbaric act of aggression by the Russians. Nor should we be under any illusions about the real impact of good measures that do not alter the final outcome in lieu of NATO’s decisive support. Cruelty takes many forms.
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