The Big Question the Georgia Senate Race Will Answer

As the second-most expensive Senate race in U.S. history reaches its climax on Tuesday, we’re about to find out the answer to a question that two sides in Georgia have spent more than $400 million trying to answer. Answer: Can a former soccer star learn enough about politics to overthrow one of the most skilled communicators in Congress?

Or was Senator Raphael Warnock nimble enough in navigating a difficult political climate for Democrats to prevent his ouster?

In other words, who was right? The Republicans warning this spring that Herschel Walker was too immature and too heavy with personal baggage to win, or former President Donald Trump, who bet sports celebrities and national political headwinds will be decisive?

There is ample evidence for either proposition; Georgia is a purple state. Their first match ended with Warnock holding a majority, forcing a final election on Tuesday. Fewer than 40,000 votes separated the two men on Election Day.

Since then, Warnock has trailed Walker, his Republican opponent, by more than 2:1 — running 19 unique ads versus Walker’s just six.

The campaign turned strongly negative and increasingly personal in the closing weeks, with an increasing focus on Walker’s rambling speeches and his treatment of women. This weekend, NBC News airs an interview with Cheryl Parsa, a former lover of Walker’s, who accused him of threatening her with physical violence.

Walker denies violent behavior and he has shown remarkable resilience in the face of all the information the Democrats have arrayed against him. Polls show no sign of his support crumbling.

To categorize these and other topics, I chatted with Maya King, an Atlanta-based political reporter for The New York Times:

Apparently a lot of Republicans regretted that Herschel Walker was their candidate. What were some ways they tried to make up for his shortcomings as a candidate?

The biggest thing Republicans have done is call on national figures to act as “validators” of sorts for Walker. It seems that the biggest problem for the Republican Party of Georgia with their candidate is his inability to clearly explain the policies he might be advocating for or deliver a campaign message far different from that of the Republican Party. red meat culture issues that appeal only to his ultra-conservative base. That’s why you see him alongside other Republican senators like Lindsey Graham or Ted Cruz in some of his television interviews.

They also campaigned with him quite a bit. At a rally on Sunday, Senators John Kennedy of Louisiana and Tim Scott of South Carolina made the remarks. And while neither Donald Trump nor Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have traveled to Georgia to campaign with Walker, they have attached their names to his fundraising emails.

Finally, I will not underestimate the importance of Governor Brian Kemp to Walker’s campaign. Because he performed so well in November with the moderate conservatives that Walker needed to win on Tuesday, Walker’s allies see the governor as an important messenger to that constituency.

The main theme of the Walker campaign’s case against Warnock is that he frequently votes with President Biden. That is obviously quite powerful. How does Warnock talk about Biden, or what are some of the ways he tried to deflect that attack?

During a long period of the general election campaign, I often asked Warnock if he would accept a visit from President Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris at any point. Warnock’s chorus is always the same: that he’s “focused on the people of Georgia.”

But in his cryptic speeches, he goes a little deeper. He talks about his work with Republican senators like Cruz and Tommy Tuberville on policy. He’s also not shy about telling supporters how he’s pushed Biden to do more on things like voting rights and student loan debt.

It is a delicate dance. But he clearly recognized the less-than-ideal status of the president in Georgia and aimed to craft a message around it.

There has been a protracted debate among analysts about how much figures like Stacey Abrams have fueled the shift to the Democratic Party by the political organization of Black voters, and how much. One hundred party interests can be attributed to the development of other groups such as Asians. American. How does Operation Warnock think about it?

Georgia’s demographics have changed rapidly and only continue to change to be younger and more racially diverse, especially around Atlanta.

Warnock’s calculation has always been about mobilizing as much Black support as possible, not just around Atlanta but also in more rural parts of the state that tend to lean more toward conservatives.

But Asian-American and Latino voters are two groups that the Warnock team knows can make the difference in a really tight race. So Warnock’s campaign has certainly borrowed from the play of Abrams and other voter advocacy groups for where to find these voters and how to lure them back to the polls.

Governor Kemp’s popularity seems to have a lot to do with his economic performance and the perception that during the pandemic, he’s made a bet to reopen the state at a time when many other governors are struggling. more cautious. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Walker doesn’t talk much about pandemics does he?

If he does, that’s not a particularly helpful message to him – I’ll be back to his stories anti-covid spray advertising and refuses to disclose his vaccination status.

Again, that’s part of why Kemp has proven to be an important stand-in for Walker: because he knows how to deliver policy messages quickly and clearly without alienating voters. shy or confused.

Walker uses a lot of religious language on the stump. For example, he calls himself a “soldier of God”. Does that hurt him with the heart of the Georgia constituency, or does that work for good across the board?

I don’t think it hurt him much. Georgia is a heavily Christian state. We also know that white Protestants overwhelmingly support his candidacy. I haven’t heard many complaints from intermediaries about this.

And, of course, we must note that his rival leads one of the most iconic podiums in Georgia, if not the country, as senior pastor of the Church. Baptist Ebenezer, where Pastor Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. ever chaired. So religion is a big theme in this whole race.

What to read

• The Supreme Court’s conservative majority seems prepared to rule that a Colorado graphic designer has First Amendment rights to refuse to create same-sex wedding anniversary websites based on based on her Christian faith despite state law prohibiting discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. Adam Liptak has more.

• Katie Glueck writes about Harlem, where Raphael Warnock trained as a seminary student and pastor, form your faith and politics.

• arizona certify the results of the midterm elections on Monday, after several Republican candidates tried to sow doubt about the outcome. However, the race for the position of justice minister is still too close to call and is headed for a recount.

Thank you for reading About Politics and for being a subscriber of The New York Times. — Blake

Read previous versions of the newsletter here.

If you like what you are reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can register here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.

Got feedback? Ideas for insurance? We would love to hear from you. Email us at the address [email protected].