The Baltic people wait for Europe’s new strategic railway

The three Baltic countries floated the idea years ago of an 870-kilometre (540-mile) high-speed rail line through Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Rail Baltica started as a grand project, but now it has become a strategic imperative: since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Baltic states increasingly see their neighbor as a threat exist.

Currently, there is no direct link passing through the Baltic region and connecting to Poland.

Rail Baltica would do just that, cutting travel times and delivering economic and environmental benefits, but the costs of this ambitious plan are rising.

Meanwhile, the Baltic states and their NATO allies need to quickly deploy the railway.

Estonia’s Infrastructure Minister Vladimir Svet said the railway was important in the context of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“History is repeating itself,” he said. “Putin’s aggressive regime is trying to recreate an imperial project on the territory of the former Soviet bloc.”

Memories of decades of Soviet occupation remain fresh in the Baltic region. Moscow deported hundreds of thousands of people from this region to Siberia.

Estonia and Latvia share land borders with Russia, while Lithuania borders the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which also shares a border with Poland and Moscow’s close ally Belarus.

About 10,000 NATO troops are currently stationed in the Baltic region along with local troops. Their total number could reach 200,000 in the worst case scenario.

“The Baltica Railway will increase military mobility and allow direct trains from the Netherlands to Tallinn,” said Cmdr Peter Nielsen, from NATO’s Force Integration Unit.

For Estonia’s infrastructure minister, the railway is “an unbreakable link to Europe’s network”.

Not far from Estonia’s capital Tallinn, at the beginning of the railway, dozens of workers are welding and hammering at the new Ülemiste passenger station.

“This will be the northernmost point of the network, the starting point of 215km of rail in Estonia and 870km across the three Baltic countries,” said Anvar Salomets, CEO of Rail Baltica Estonia.

Until now, the Baltic countries still use Russian track widths because their railway systems date back to the Soviet era.

Passengers must change trains to the European system upon reaching the Polish border.

The new network will use European rail width and connect seamlessly with rail lines across the EU.

“Trains will run at speeds of up to 250 km/h (155 mph) compared to 80 or 120 km/h (50 or 74 mph) now,” Salomets added.

That means journey times from Tallinn to Lithuania’s capital Vilnius will be significantly reduced, from at least 12 hours now to less than four hours.

“It will be a game changer, reducing the environmental impact across our entire transport sector,” said Salomets, who foresees major economic benefits.

Recent analysis by the Rail Baltica group estimates overall economic growth at €6.6 billion (£5.5 billion).

“Most of the studies on existing high-speed rail systems show positive economic impacts,” said Adam Cohen of the University of California at Berkeley.

But those benefits won’t appear overnight, and there are growing concerns about rising costs. Developers’ estimates have quadrupled since 2017 and now stand at 24 billion euros.

To date, the EU has subsidized 85% of the project and has just announced a further 1.1 billion euros.

Estonia and Latvia have also been criticized for focusing on building railway stations before building the main line.

French engineer Emilien Dang, whose project RB Rail oversaw, blamed recent global crises for the spike in costs: “Our initial estimate did not take into account the Covid pandemic and Inflation is high – and the situation in Ukraine has significantly increased costs.” materially.”

As he passed by a large new station in the Latvian capital Riga, he also touched on cultural issues.

“The French position is erroneous that the Baltic region is one unit. But they are three countries, with different regulations.”

The Baltic countries decided to divide the project into two phases. The first project worth 15 billion euros will have single track instead of double track by 2030 and focus on the most important train stops.

The second track and additional train stations will be completed as part of the second phase and there is no specific completion date yet.

Soaring costs have forced states to scale back some of their ambitions.

“We could further narrow the scope of phase one, for example by connecting Riga airport in a later phase,” said Andris Kulbergs, chairman of the Latvian parliamentary committee investigating the project.

Since billions of euros for the first phase have not yet been secured, that may be necessary.

Estonia’s national auditor Janar Holm believes delays are likely for several more years: “We have to find funding to build this railway now or it will be even more expensive.” .

The country’s infrastructure minister, Vladimir Svet, insisted “we are reducing the budget as much as possible, we have streamlined the public procurement process and if necessary we will borrow money.”

He added: “If we want to preserve our culture and feel secure in our freedoms, there is no other way than to be in a strongly supportive EU, NATO and international community international law”.

For the three Baltic states that broke away from the Soviet Union to join the EU and NATO, Rail Baltica could serve as a lifeline – if it can get its way.