The absence of the Cameroonian president sparked speculation about his health

Speculation about the health and whereabouts of Cameroon’s 91-year-old President Paul Biya has become a hot topic across Africa this week.

After attending the China-Africa summit in Beijing in early September, it was perhaps not surprising that he missed the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

But as he stayed away from this week’s La Francophonie summit in Viller Cotterêts, north of Paris, rumors spread strongly that he had not been seen in public for about a month.

Cameroon’s ambassador to France confirmed that Biya is “in good health” and is in Geneva – where he usually resides when away from home.

Other sources attributed this to his need to rest under medical supervision after a busy diplomatic schedule in July and August.

After all, he is Africa’s oldest head of state and the second longest-serving, narrowly defeated by President Teodoro Obiang Nguema of neighboring Equatorial Guinea.

Such mundane signs are not enough to remain speculative about Biya in media and political circles interested in Africa.

So finally the government spokesman, René Sadi, officially denied the rumors, adding that the president would return home “in the next few days”.

And the head of the president’s private office, with him in Geneva, insisted he was “in excellent health”.

Cameroon occupies an important strategic location, serving as the gateway to landlocked Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR).

In addition to trying to completely suppress jihadist violence around Lake Chad, the country is also grappling with a complex and often violent crisis in the English-speaking regions.

In response to these challenges, Biya brought an unusual personal style, often avoiding the front of the stage without any apparent personal need to engage in diplomatic or presenterism. the summit is performative.

He often does not attend many meetings of African leaders.

Even at home, with his measured speech and cautious tone, Biya over the years carried out his personal interventions, largely entrusting the day-to-day running of government and handling of Technical dossier for successive prime ministers.

Unexplained absences from public view are nothing unusual for this most mysterious of presidents.

Rumors that he was dead persisted from time to time, largely due to unannounced disappearances from the scene.

But this modest style belies the determination he made when he came to power in 1982, sidelining his patron and predecessor Ahmadou Ahidjo, promising liberalizing changes before entrenching him. presidency that no challenger or subsequent protest campaign could have accomplished. change.

When a wave of multiparty democratization swept across much of Africa in the early 1990s, Biya was among the incumbent leaders who wisely adapted, allowing sufficient reforms to reduce reduce the heat of mass protests while still maintaining control.

Since his narrow election victory in 1992, he has ignored subsequent political challenges, perhaps helped by manipulation of the polls and certainly by divisions among his opponents. The defenders are often tactically incompetent.

Now, as Biya’s current seven-year term is set to end in November 2025, supporters are putting even more pressure on the 91-year-old to stand.

Critics say it is long past time that Cameroon’s national leadership was passed to the younger generation, who can solve national problems and explore opportunities for development and progress with more speed and dynamism.

In 2016, teachers and lawyers in two predominantly English-speaking regions, the Southwest and Northwest, protested inadequate resources for English language rights and public services.

Had Biya responded more quickly and with a more generous and heavily promoted reform package, perhaps he could have assuaged discontent from the start – and thus avoided the eventual slide into confrontation. violence between security forces and armed fighters demanding complete secession.

Biya then introduced reforms – to respond to the grievances of the English-speaking regions and, nationally, to decentralize power to regional assemblies.

But citizens sometimes had to wait a long time before the regime addressed their concerns – decentralized structures were not established until years after the initial framework law was passed.

However, some Cameroonians are comfortable with Biya’s restrained approach to leadership and his willingness to leave routine decisions to successive prime ministers.

They saw his role as more symbolic and distant, almost like a constitutional king.

Certainly, this representative role is an aspect of the presidency with which he seems comfortable.

For example, on August 15, he was present at Boulouris, Côte d’Azur in France, where he gave a detailed 12-minute speech at the commemoration of the 1944 Allied landings to liberate the region. southern France from Nazi Germany – a campaign in which many troops from French African territories participated.

And in fact, despite frequent absences from Cameroon’s capital Yaoundé – often retreating to his homeland in the southern jungle or to his favorite international base, the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva – Biya remains continue to make important strategic and politically sensitive decisions.

The main gatekeeper for the center of power at the Étoudi presidential palace is the Secretary General of the Presidential Palace, Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh.

A system of power in which Biya, as head of state, keeps his cards close to his chest will certainly generate gossip about his own intentions in the 2025 election and about his successors. potential responsibility.

But some senior regime figures who regularly received tips, such as Laurent Esso and René Sadi, are now no longer youthful themselves.

Support groups also emerged to push for the passing of the torch to the president’s eldest son Franck Biya, a businessman – although Franck himself has never shown any interest in politics or given any hints. What do you think about such ambitions?

But in Africa today, where discontent with political institutions runs deep, especially among urban youth, institutional efforts to ensure the continuation of power can have hidden consequences. risk.

In neighboring Gabon, President Ali Bongo has overthrown by the military last year after the regime manipulated the 2023 election to give him another seven-year term despite his poor health.

And when Senegalese President Macky Sall named Prime Minister Amadou Ba as his successor, he was decisively rejected by voters who chose to support him instead. young reformist opponent Bassirou Diomaye Faye.

Biya and those close to him can feel confident of avoiding such situations. But that requires an astute understanding of popular sentiment, especially among the youth and middle classes in big cities like Yaoundé and Douala.

Paul Melly is a consultant for the Africa Program at Chatham House in London.