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Tesla deliveries hit a record 405,278 in Q4, but missed views despite plenty of offers


Tesla (TSLA) deliveries hit a record 405,278 in the fourth quarter, the EV giant said on Monday, falling short of expectations despite plenty of year-end incentives. That comes after Tesla stock plunged in December and into 2022.




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Tesla’s delivery numbers were up 31% from a year earlier, and nearly 18% from Q3’s 343,830. Deliveries were up 40% to 1,313,851 in 2022, but far below target. spend 50%.

Analysts had expected Tesla’s Q4 deliveries to be around 420,000 units, which has dropped significantly over the past few weeks. Tesla’s Q3 deliveries were also short.

Q4 deliveries include 388,131 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, with 17,147 Model S and X luxury electric vehicles.

The figures do not include any Tesla Semi deliveries. Some were delivered to Pepsi in Q4

Q4 production rose to 439,701 in Q4, exceeding deliveries by more than 34,000. In the third quarter, output topped sales at just over 22,000.

Tesla is based in China Electric vehicle rivals report strong Q4 delivery numbers last weekend.

Tesla production

Tesla’s output hit 439,701 in the fourth quarter, exceeding deliveries by more than 34,000. In the third quarter, output topped sales at just over 22,000.

Yields can be significantly higher.

Tesla Shanghai reduced production on December 12 and halted production on December 24 due to lack of demand. Production was set to restart on Monday, but will then be suspended from January 21 to 30 during the Lunar New Year.

However, with production ramping up in Berlin and Austin, Tesla’s overall production capacity now exceeds 450,000 per quarter.


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Tesla Deals

Tesla has slashed prices in its major markets to move the metal before year-end. In China, the end-of-October sale led to discounts and insurance subsidies. In the United States, Tesla has slashed the price of its Model 3 and Y vehicles by $7,500 for year-end deliveries, and added Model S and X to its offer in the last two days of 2022.

If demand picks up, Tesla’s deliveries could reach 450,000 in Q4 due to existing production capacity and inventory.

Tesla EV subsidies increase, decrease

In 2023, new US tax credits of up to $7,500 will support Tesla’s demand at home, but they are subject to a variety of conditions, with income and price limits. The Model 3 faces a maximum price of $55,000, which means the base model qualifies but the higher-end model doesn’t. The Model Y, which starts at $65,990, typically also faces a $55,000 capped price tag. But the less popular seven-seat version has a $80,000 limit.

It’s unclear how Tesla was able to adjust pricing and production due to the tax credits.

Meanwhile, China’s EV subsidies worth 11,088 yuan ($1,607) have ended.

Tesla essentially absorbed the expiring subsidy by keeping the official price unchanged. It also extended the year-end discount of 10,000 yuan until February.

Several European countries have also cut or eliminated EV subsidies, including Germany.


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Tesla shares

Tesla stock is down 37% in December and 65% in 2022, even if it rebounds later in the year. Blame it on concerns about Tesla’s demand, overall weakness in growth stocks, and concerns about Elon Musk and Twitter.

Analysts remain bullish on Tesla stock

Despite the recent drop in Tesla stock, analysts are signaling that this is still a strong game.

On Thursday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter wrote that “bearish traders” and taxable sellers are “grabbing every growing negative news”.

Potter added that while Tesla’s growth “could easily slow” in 2023 due to the recession, rising interest rates, and “mining” demand, the company’s market share is not “suddenly” succumb to the new wave of competition.”

“Bottom line: We don’t see any red flags in these data sets,” Potter wrote of Tesla’s key sales regions.

This comes after Baird analyst Ben Kallo cut his Tesla price target to 252, down from 316, on Wednesday but touted Tesla is the “Best Idea” Stock for Investors in 2023.

Last week, six analysts cut their price targets on TSLA stock. However, the targets are still well above the current price of Tesla stock, and analysts generally maintain a buy and outperform rating. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, a longtime Tesla speculator, also weighed in this week, expressing optimism for the EV giant.

The analyst writes that about 70% of the recent sell-off in Tesla stock was due to a reaction to Musk as well as his involvement and focus on Twitter. If Musk refocuses on Tesla and stops selling TSLA stock, “in our view, the stock has bottomed out and works from here,” Ives said.

Please follow Kit Norton on Twitter @KitNorton for more insurance.

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