We almost made it. In just over a week, the Bills and Rams will officially kick off, and the 2022 NFL season will officially begin.
We’ve sifted through many of the markets available to us, but one deserves a little more attention: the total drop for the whole season. Available to draftKings bettors, there are several names that look like solid value to exceeding their set limit for touchdowns at the end of the season.
Trevor Lawrence 22.5+ touches (-110 DK)
Trevor Lawrence has had a tough rookie season, churning out 12 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, but really, is everything all right in Jacksonville?
Immersed in training drama and a poor offense, I’m willing to give Lawrence the benefit of the doubt as the “can’t-miss” prospect he’s been reported on for the past few years.
With Doug Pederson performing offensive action, there’s a reasonable expectation for a jump from former Clemson stardom. We will highlight Carson Wentz as a parallel here.
While the 2016 Eagles didn’t have the shuffle like the 2021 Jaguars did, Wentz had a stat year as a rookie, throwing 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. In his second year, under Pederson, Wentz exploded with 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions in just 13 games played.
A bet on Lawrence here is a bet on Pederson unlocking the best parts of Lawrence’s game and giving him an offense that will lead to success. He’s done that before.
Jags added some nice pieces to their offense, featured by Christian Kirk. Marvin Jones is a reliable second receiver, and Zay Jones provides some speed for the attacking phase. While Evan Engram has had some issues with drops, he’s still a good ending pick.
Tackling the issue of recuperation when re-running Travis Etienne, who caught eight touchdowns from Lawrence during their time together at Clemson, and this was a much better situation in Year Two.
AJ Dillon over 5.5 hits the ground on dash (-130 DK)
In the second season of A.J. Dillon, he counted five hasty touchdowns for the Green Bay Packers. Dillon has finished 10th in the NFL with 41 red zone carry, a role he will have again in 2022.
Aaron Jones is still involved near the goal line with 33 attempts, but Dillon’s goal is perfect for cushioning the ball from close range. Even without Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers should still let this Packers attack work, which means plenty of scoring opportunities.
We are choosing to continue to engage and grow for Dillon and take over 5.5x his urgent TD. Dillon had a few long runs last year, proving that he’s not only a one-kick horse but has an explosive element to his game.
Allen Robinson on 7.5 ground hits on receiving (+120 DK)
Matthew Stafford hit 41 touchdowns last season in his first year with the Rams, marking a career-high in 2011. Sixteen of those went to Cooper Kupp, who felt constrained. forced for some slight setbacks in his historic season.
The nine touchdowns went to a combination of Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr., both of whom are no longer on the team.
Next up is Allen Robinson, one of the most underrated recipients in the game due to the poor gem quality he had to experience in Chicago.
Taking on most of Woods and OBJ’s mass, and certainly sucking some from Kupp, Robinson should easily surpass this 7.5 total.
Dallas Goedert over 4.5 hits on receiving (-130 DK)
Dallas Goedert was in the NFL for four seasons, all with Philadelphia. His total encounters in those years, starting in 2018: four, five, three and four.
As you may remember, Zach Ertz was the best finisher of the first three seasons of Goedert’s career and was still on the team early last year. In the past four seasons with the Eagles, Ertz has had 17 touchdowns.
This seems like an extremely logical line for a tight finish as talented as Goedert, with the low bar likely to cross because of his past success and the addition of AJ Brown to the Philadelphia team. While Brown certainly has to command a large number of targets, Goedert still has a prominent role to play in this pass attack and his 6-foot-5 frame will be used in the red zone.
Goedert should be on the field in almost 100% of the attacks, as TE2’s relegation on this list is very drastic. The volume will be there for Goedert to get us to this number, and that’s one of the things I’m betting on.
Going forward, we’ll be writing and reading touchdown props for that Sunday game, action that we can take advantage of right away. Almost done!
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